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System Dynamic Optimization in the Sustainability Assessment of a World-Model

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-18148
  • The System Dynamics (SD) methodology is a framework for modeling and simulating the dynamic behavior of socioeconomic systems. Characteristic for the description of such systems is the occurrence of feedback loops together with stocks and flows. The mathematical equations that describe the system are usually nonlinear. Therefore seemingly simple systems can show a nonintuitive, nonpredictable behavior over time. Controlling a dynamical system means to define a desired final state in which the system should be, and to specify potential interventions from outside that should keep the system on the right track. The central question is how to compute such globally optimal control for a given SD model. We propose a branch-and-bound approach that is based on a bound propagation method, primal heuristics, and spatial branching. We apply our new SD-control method to a small System Dynamics model, that describes the evolution of a social-economic system over time. We examine the problem of steering this system on a sustainable consumption path.

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Author:Armin Fügenschuh, Ingmar Vierhaus
Document Type:ZIB-Report
Tag:System Dynamics; Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Optimization
Date of first Publication:2013/04/23
Series (Serial Number):ZIB-Report (13-23)
Published in:Appeared in: Proceedings of the 11th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing (GCSM2013), G. Seliger (Hrsg.), Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin, Seite 582 -- 587
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung-Nicht kommerziell-Keine Bearbeitung
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