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Exiting the COVID-19 pandemic: after-shock risks and avoidance of disruption tails in supply chains

  • Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the “new normal” have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as “disruption tails.” While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic’s impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production–inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control.

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Metadaten
Author:Dmitry IvanovORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:b721-opus4-34062
URL:https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10479-021-04047-7#article-info
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-021-04047-7
Publisher:Springer Nature
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2021/04/05
Publishing Institution:Hochschulbibliothek HWR Berlin
Release Date:2021/12/27
Tag:Ripple effect; Simulation; Supply chain dynamics; Supply chain resilience; Supply chain risk management
Issue:Ann Oper Res (2021)
Institutes:FB I - Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Open Access Publikationen (DINI-Set):open_access
Open Access Publikations financed by DEAL Project:hybrid
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International