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Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations
(2024)
We introduce a novel method to elicit belief distributions and apply it to elicit inflation expectations in a representative US sample through a pre-registered survey experiment. Our approach elicits beta belief distributions directly in a two-step process. First, participants specify their minimum and maximum expected inflation. They then use a graphical interface with two sliders to adjust the mean and variance of their inflation belief distribution. We benchmark our method against the “Bins” method, popularized by the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Our findings reveal significant variations in elicited belief distributions depending on the method used. Specifically, our approach yields higher mean inflation estimates and substantially reduces the standard deviations of the distributions. Respondents report that our method is easier to use, more engaging, and better allows them to express their beliefs. Furthermore, the resulting distributions more accurately reflect participants’ beliefs across several dimensions and show stronger correlations with their point predictions.
This study examines Brazil's foreign policy towards China, focusing on the extreme-right presidency of Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022). Based on original and systematic quantitative data, we investigate the drivers behind policy variation and their implications for Brazil–China relations. Using measures of voting and speech convergence at the United Nations, legal agreements with China, and trade and investment, our data covers the period from 1995 to 2022. We then explore the concept of asymmetry and consider the asymmetric relationship between Brazil and China using CINC scores. Our empirical analysis indicates that Brazil's foreign policy stance towards China did change under Bolsonaro. However, this shift did not disrupt the broader relationship due to the pre-existing partnership and widening asymmetry between the two countries. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of Brazil–China relations and of Beijing's relations with other middle powers.
Recent research emphasizes social media's potential for citizens to express shared grievances. In active conflict, however, social media posts indicating political loyalties can pose severe risks to civilians. We develop a theory that explains how civilians modify their online behavior as part of efforts to improve their security during conflict. After major changes in territorial control, civilians should be more likely to post positive content, and more content that supports the winning side. We study social media behavior during and after the siege of Aleppo in November 2016. We match Aleppo‐based Twitter users with users from other parts of Syria and use large language models to analyze changes in online behavior after the regime's retaking of the city. Results show that users in Aleppo post more positive and pro‐Assad content, but only when self‐disclosing their location. The findings have important implications for our understanding of digital communication in civil conflict.
How do US foreign military deployments impact the defense policies of host states? Dominant scholarship holds that these deployments play a pivotal role in assuring allies that their security is guaranteed, which in turn leads host countries to neglect their national defense contributions. In this research note, we examine the micro-foundations of this conventional wisdom, investigating how nuclear and conventional troop deployments impact attitudes toward defense policies in (potential) host states. We highlight that the presumed linkage between assurance and free-riding critically implies that foreign military deployments must positively affect perceptions of security among host nations. We test this core logic, alongside some alternative pathways, at the micro level through two survey experiments that randomize hypothetical withdrawals (Germany) and deployments (Czech Republic). Although we find some evidence that foreign military deployments can decrease citizens’ subjective need for defense, the survey experiments also reveal that citizens hardly feel protected by these deployments. Thus, our results cast doubt on the core logic underlying the theory of free-riding in alliances.
In March 2024, the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly (FGPA) celebrated its fifth anniversary. This binational forum can be viewed as a genuine step towards integration in Franco-German relations besides the Aachen Treaty. The FGPA is designed to be a watchdog over the Franco-German treaties and to bring together political actors of both countries to discuss and resolve conflictual issues and contribute to European initiatives. After five years of its being, the results are mixed. Franco-German governmental relations are more conflictual than ever. While the FGPA proved added value during the Covid-19 pandemic by convincing the French and German interior ministers to lift border controls, it has been notably reticent on the Ukraine war and other foreign policy conflicts. The FGPA would benefit by being bolder and extricating itself step-by-step from national political constraints. In this way, parliamentary dialogue can help the two key partners to find common ground on a range of European issues.
Climate movements have gained momentum in recent years, aiming to create public awareness of the consequences of climate change through salient climate protests. This paper investigates whether concerns about climate change increase following demonstrative protests and confrontational acts of civil disobedience. Leveraging individual-level survey panel data from Germany, we exploit exogenous variations in the timing of climate protests relative to survey interview dates to compare climate change concerns in the days before and after a protest (N = 24,535). Following climate protests, we find increases in concerns about climate change by, on average, 1.2 percentage points. Further, we find no statistically significant evidence that concerns of any subpopulation decreased after climate protests. Lastly, the increase in concerns following protests is highest when concern levels before the protests are low.
Technological change and globalization have caused unprecedented transformations of labour markets, resulting in a growing division between workers who perform cognitive vs non-cognitive tasks. To date, only few studies have addressed the fertility effects of these long-term structural changes. This study fills that gap. We measure the cognitive task content of occupations using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which we link to individual histories from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984–2018. We find that women and men with non-cognitive jobs are increasingly less likely to enter parenthood; this is reflected in lower first-birth intensities but also in higher probabilities of childlessness compared with workers in highly cognitive jobs. These findings imply that structural shifts in the labour market are exacerbating disparities between low-skilled and highly skilled individuals, not only within the labour market but also in the realm of family formation.
Taxes targeting fuel, road usage, or carbon emissions for environmental protection often face public opposition. Can widely accessible machine learning methods aid in predicting and understanding opposition to environmental taxes? This study uses the random forest algorithm to predict opposition to increased environmental taxes based on 41 theoretically relevant respondent characteristics. Drawing on nationally representative surveys, we predict individual tax opposition across 28 countries in 2010 and 2020 (N = 70 710). Personal values and environmental evaluations tend to be more influential than demographics in predicting tax opposition, with key variables differing between countries and over time. A lack of commitment to pro-environmental behavior is the most important predictor in emerging economies. Conversely, concerns about environmental issues and prioritization of jobs and prices are influential in high-income countries, gaining prominence over the previous decade. Policymakers can leverage these insights to tailor communication of environmental tax increases in different contexts, emphasizing, for instance, job creation.