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How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy of voters’ expectations. The analysis further shows that voters leverage the information to update their beliefs. The results have relevant implications for debates about belief formation in low-information environments.
This chapter presents a microeconomic, behavioral perspective on bounded rationality and beliefs. It begins with an account of how research on belief biases, in particular via probabilistic belief elicitation, has become mainstream in economics only relatively recently and late, even in behavioral economics (aka “psychology and economics”). The chapter then offers a review of the decision-theoretic foundations of modeling and eliciting (subjective) beliefs as probabilities, as well as selected—both classic and recent—evidence on humans’ bounded rationality from related research in psychology and economics. In doing so, it connects the historical debates within decision theory, on the one hand, and within psychology, on the other, concerning the normative status of expected utility and Bayesianism, as well as its methodological implications. A conclusion draws lessons for the practice of belief elicitation and future research.
The first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy and its financial leg, the European Defence Industrial Programme, saw the light of day in March 2024. The strategy seeks to ameliorate deficiencies in EU defence readiness identified in light of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It offers an ambitious agenda and tailor-made incentives designed to encourage EU member states to invest more, better, together, and European. The Jacques Delors Institute’s Associate Research Fellow Thierry Tardy and the Jacques Delors Centre’s Security Policy Fellow Sascha Ostanina argue that the strategy is a good start to motivate European countries for more action in the defence sector. However, as long as the EU fails to take on a larger defence mandate via treaty change, the strategy success will hinge upon whether the member states, and their respective industrial defence sectors, will be willing to step up to the plate.
While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1,843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top-of-mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy and that an information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for therapy. Information affects therapy demand by changing beliefs rather than by shifting attention. Our results suggest that information interventions that target the perceived effectiveness of therapy are a potent tool in combating the ongoing mental health crisis.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, even Xi Jinping, who is often depicted in the media and pundit world as having centralized control over nearly every dimension of Chinese governance, still must rely on powerful technology corporations to carry out his will in the increasingly important Internet sector. This suggests a model of political control significantly more nuanced than most observers realize. This chapter argues that Xi Jinping does not rule the Internet and more specifically social media via a tight command-and-control structure, which implies that he is the ultimate decision-maker and companies simply implement his policy decisions. Instead, the chapter demonstrates based on process-tracing that China’s governance of the Internet is best understood as a corporate management model, whereby the Chinese state engages in a partnership with technology companies. Xi Jinping assumes a leadership role enforced by state instruments of control and cooptation strategies. At the same time, the state remains dependent on companies due to their informational, organizational, and institutional resources.
Contracts for differences are widely seen as a cornerstone of Europe's future electricity market design. This paper is about designing such contracts. We identify the dispatch and investment distortions that conventional CfDs cause, the patches used to overcome these shortcomings, and the problems these fixes introduce. We then propose an alternative contract we call “financial” CfD. This hybrid between conventional CfDs and forward contracts mitigates revenue risk to a substantial degree while providing undistorted incentives. Like conventional CfDs, it is long-term and tailored to technology-specific (wind, solar, nuclear) generation patterns but, like forwards, decouples payments from actual generation. The proposed contract mitigates volume risk and avoids margin calls by accepting physical assets as collateral.
Combined survey and web tracking data have great potential for social-scientific research. They allow linking information on online behavior with data on reported offline behavior, opinions, and attitudes. At the same time, ethical, legal, and technical challenges make it difficult to disseminate linked web tracking data to the scientific community. This whitepaper aims to address these challenges by providing guidance for researchers and archivists, discussing legal, practical, and ethical aspects, disclosure risks, and establishing a framework for publishing web tracking data. Recommendations for best practices are also provided based on experiences from a research project funded by the German Consortium for the Social, Behavioural, Educational and Economic Sciences.
Developing innovative, eco-friendlier products that gain traction in the mass market remains a persistent challenge for many firms. To bring consumers to choose “greener” alternatives over conventional products, firms need to overcome prevailing product evaluations that favor traditional solutions. Research on valuation entrepreneurship examines the strategies that actors apply to induce changes in established evaluations. Adding to the emerging literature on valuation entrepreneurship, our study analyzes how the car maker Tesla, Inc. used product design—material artifacts' properties of form and function—to advance the public perception of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). When Tesla entered the market, several firms had tried to promote BEVs as a way of making private mobility more environmentally friendly, but with limited success. In contrast, Tesla produced well-received BEVs that generated enormous consumer interest and led to a more favorable assessment of BEVs as a whole. Drawing on 54 interviews and nearly 2000 pages of archival data, our abductive study identifies three product design strategies that increased the appeal of Tesla's initial models: (1) incorporating discontinuous technological solutions; (2) optimizing the products on traditional evaluation criteria (e.g., driving performance, comfort, space, status); and (3) creating an ecosystem of complementary products. Since some design choices came at the expense of a minimal environmental footprint, they risked attracting blame for compromising on the environmental performance of potentially eco-friendly cars and for committing “greenwashing.” To minimize this risk, Tesla complemented its design strategies by employing three strategies of reputational politics to avoid such blame. After Tesla's initial, lavish models had improved the public perception of electric cars, Tesla and other car makers were able to sell less excessive and more sustainable BEVs in much greater quantities than ever before. Our findings contribute to three literature streams and generate valuable insights for management practice.
In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen promised a geopolitical Commission. Back then, the proclamation was largely derided as empty rhetoric. However, in recent years, a dizzying number of geoeconomic initiatives have come from Brussels, revising and tweaking existing tools and measures, developing new instruments, and announcing a grand new European Economic Security Strategy. This policy brief examines the progress made and outlines the key challenges for the next Commission. While the current Commission expanded the EU‘s geoeconomic toolbox, the incoming Commission must prioritise harmonisation to prevent fragmentation, allocate substantial funds to enhance resilience, and streamline institutional processes to facilitate coherent policymaking at a European level.
Research on corporate sustainability has started to acknowledge the role of temporality in creating more sustainable organizations. Yet, these advances tend to treat firms as monolithic and we have little understanding of how different temporal patterns throughout an organization shape perceptions of and actions toward sustainability. Building on studies highlighting how the temporal structures of work shape employee engagement with different organizational processes and issues, we seek to answer: How does the temporality of work practices structure perceptions of corporate sustainability throughout the firm? Using data from an ethnography of a small European sustainable bank, we provide an account of the variety of ways in which employees in different departments perceive the bank and how they engage with sustainability. We then go on to show how the temporal structures of work practices within different departments help explain some divergence in perceptions of sustainability. Our study highlights the variegation of temporal structures in organizational processes of meaning-making and its role for a better understanding of the efforts to make corporations more sustainable.
The paper explores the role of social partnership for facilitating processes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. Social partnership can help to facilitate the transition to lower emissions by negotiating the costs and benefits of climate reducing policies with the workers affected. At the same time, social partnership is stronger in sectors, which have high emissions and might be tempted to reduce the speed of phasing out high emission production processes. The paper uses data from the Structure of Earnings Survey to examine the relationship between bargaining coverage, unionization, wages and industry emissions in EU member states. It analyses these relationships in the context of different growth trajectories towards the knowledge economy. It finds that high-emitting industries tend to have higher profits, wages and lower wage inequality than others. Brown jobs, however, are not better jobs, but benefit from collective bargaining. At the same time, there are significant differences between the member states of the European Union. The paper concludes by discussing how social partnership deals with the dilemma of being rooted in fossil fuel industries while negotiating change.
This paper studies a key element of discrimination, namely when stereotypes translate into discriminatory actions. Using a hiring experiment, we rule out taste-based discrimination by design and test for the presence of two types of belief-based gender discrimination. We document evidence of explicit discriminators—individuals who are willing to discriminate even when their hiring choices are highly revealing of their gender-biased beliefs. Crucially, we also identify implicit discriminators—individuals who do not discriminate against women when taking a discriminatory action is highly revealing of their biased beliefs, but do discriminate against women when their biased motive is obscured. Our analysis highlights the central role played by features of the choice environment in determining whether and how discrimination will manifest. We conclude by discussing the implications for policy design.
Provided it is sufficiently regulated, securitisation can help to fund the economy and share risks within the monetary union. Securitisation combines the advantages of banks in lending and of financial markets in financing. However, a lack of standardisation and legal harmonisation currently prevents the EU from reaping the benefits of this instrument. Weakening the prudential framework will not create a truly European market but may pose new risks to financial stability. Instead, this Policy Brief argues that to scale up securitisation, overcoming the fragmentation in national contract and insolvency laws in the longer term will be key. In the meantime, the European Commission should cut unnecessary red tape and establish an EU-wide standardised securitisation product tailored to an asset class that shows sustainable growth potential. Renovation loans are a promising option.
This paper studies a key element of discrimination, namely when stereotypes translate into discriminatory actions. Using a hiring experiment, we rule out taste-based discrimination by design and test for the presence of two types of belief-based gender discrimination. We document evidence of explicit discriminators—individuals who are willing to discriminate even when their hiring choices are highly revealing of their gender-biased beliefs. Crucially, we also identify implicit discriminators—individuals who do not discriminate against women when taking a discriminatory action is highly revealing of their biased beliefs, but do discriminate against women when their biased motive is obscured. Our analysis highlights the central role played by features of the choice environment in determining whether and how discrimination will manifest. We conclude by discussing the implications for policy design.
Transnational Constitutionalism is a sociological given and a legal challenge. We observe the emergence of ever more legally-framed transnational arrangements with ever more power and impact. Does this kind of rule ‘deserve recognition’? Is it at all conceivable that the proprium of law can be defended against the rise of its informal competitors? This essay opts for a third way which neither listens to the siren songs on law beyond the state nor to the defences of nation-state constitutionalism as the monopolist of legitimate rule. The alternative submitted suggests that transnational legal ordering of the EU should build upon its re-conceptualisation as a ‘three-dimensional conflicts-law’ with a democracy-enhancing potential. This re-construction operationalises the ‘united in diversity’ motto of the Draft Constitutional Treaty of 2004. It preserves essential accomplishments of Europe’s constitutional democracies. It provides for co-operative problem-solving of transnational regulatory tasks, and it retains supervisory powers over national and transnational arrangements of private governance.
How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total $N=9500$), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation target as more credible, the ECB's communication as more honest, and the ECB's policy as more beneficial to them. Finally, the causal effect of central bank trust on inflation expectations is quantified using instruments to deal with endogeneity.
Transparency is recognized as a vital feature for understanding and predicting robot behavior. Another feature that affects interaction with robots is their anthropomorphism. The relationship between these remains under-explored but is postulated to be negative. We present a pilot study investigating the effects of robot transparency in human-robot interactions, where the robot has an anthropomorphic appearance. We asked participants to evaluate and interact with the humanoid robot Pepper to examine whether visualizing the robot's goals and behavior affects perceived intelligence, anthropomorphism, and robot agency. Our preliminary findings suggest that users may attribute higher ratings of agency when interacting with a robot visualizing its goals. In this late-breaking report, we propose our experiment on the interplay between transparency and anthropomorphism in human-robot interaction and summarize insights from our preliminary pilot study.
This working paper aims to examine the ‘displacement regime complex’, displacement referring to both internally and externally displaced persons, taking into account the competing roles of UNHCR and IOM in both spheres of activity. The title of the paper ‘Reform for protection’, aims to outline institutional reforms that aim to increase protection for the displaced, informed by binding universal human rights standards, and institutional principles relating to accountability and participation of most affected populations.