Forecasting Game: Teaching Prospective Engineers Quantitative Forecasting Techniques with a Simulation Game

  • In order to determine demand as precisely as possible, many businesses use several forecasting methods. The aim of forecasting is to determine future demand based on data from the past. The use of a specific method is not always easy and depends on a number of factors. To help prospective engineers find the most suitable forecasting method for a specific problem, a forecasting game was developed and then evaluated. The paper describes the design and the evaluation of the forecasting game. In order to provide an overview of existing forecasting methods, the first part of the paper examined the mathematical fundamentals of eight different forecasting methods and outlined the requirements for their application. The second part of the paper describes the creation of a forecasting game in which prospective engineers can learn how to determine the appropriate forecasting method for specific scenarios. In total, five scenarios covering the three different demand patternsIn order to determine demand as precisely as possible, many businesses use several forecasting methods. The aim of forecasting is to determine future demand based on data from the past. The use of a specific method is not always easy and depends on a number of factors. To help prospective engineers find the most suitable forecasting method for a specific problem, a forecasting game was developed and then evaluated. The paper describes the design and the evaluation of the forecasting game. In order to provide an overview of existing forecasting methods, the first part of the paper examined the mathematical fundamentals of eight different forecasting methods and outlined the requirements for their application. The second part of the paper describes the creation of a forecasting game in which prospective engineers can learn how to determine the appropriate forecasting method for specific scenarios. In total, five scenarios covering the three different demand patterns (linear/stationary, trend and seasonal) as well as the forecast quality methods were developed and can be played through. For each scenario, the player has to choose the most appropriate forecasting method for a specific problem based on a self-created task description. To make the game as realistic as possible, a fictional company with a background story was designed. The last part was about the evaluation of the forecasting game. For the evaluation, a student survey to gather the opinions of the students was conducted. The results of the student survey show an overall positive evaluation of the simulation game by the students. However, the test also showed that the game takes a certain amount of time. Since only 15 of the approximately 30 students who tested the game participated in the evaluation, the results are not significant.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Carsten Deckert, Julia Keszler, Helen Schmitz, Ahmed Mohya
open access (DINI-Set):open_access
open access :Diamant - ohne Publikationskosten mit Lizenzhinweis
Fachbereich/Einrichtung:Hochschule Düsseldorf / Fachbereich - Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik
Document Type:Workingpaper / Report
Year of Completion:2022
Series (Serial Number):Working Papers in Industrial Engineering (5)
Language of Publication:English
Place of publication:Düsseldorf
Creating Corporation:Hochschule Düsseldorf
Page Number:43
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:due62-opus-39057
DOI:https://doi.org/10.20385/opus4-3905
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften und zugeordnete Tätigkeiten
Licence (German):Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Release Date:2022/12/23
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