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Stiffness identification by efficient model calibration of random field variables for the Young's modulus

  • The main challenge in using numerical models as digital twins in real applications for prognosis purposes, such as reliability analysis, is the calibration and validation of the models based on uncertain measurement data. Uncertainties are not limited to the measurement data, but the numerical model itself will not be perfect due to the modelling assumptions. In this contribution, a probabilistic inference method for model calibration, based on the Bayes’ Theorem, is used to face that issue. Such inference approaches include uncertainties on the data as well as on the model parameters, allowing to compute an a posteriori distribution for the model parameters as well as a noise term reflecting the measured data. However, such probabilistic inference methods require a lot of evaluations of the numerical forward model for different model parameters. An improvement of the efficiency is obtained by replacing the forward model with a reduced model. Model reduction, e.g. the properThe main challenge in using numerical models as digital twins in real applications for prognosis purposes, such as reliability analysis, is the calibration and validation of the models based on uncertain measurement data. Uncertainties are not limited to the measurement data, but the numerical model itself will not be perfect due to the modelling assumptions. In this contribution, a probabilistic inference method for model calibration, based on the Bayes’ Theorem, is used to face that issue. Such inference approaches include uncertainties on the data as well as on the model parameters, allowing to compute an a posteriori distribution for the model parameters as well as a noise term reflecting the measured data. However, such probabilistic inference methods require a lot of evaluations of the numerical forward model for different model parameters. An improvement of the efficiency is obtained by replacing the forward model with a reduced model. Model reduction, e.g. the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) method, is a popular concept to decrease the computational effort, where each evaluation of the reduced forward model is a pure less costly function evaluation. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of material parameters in the forward model is described by a lognormal random field. This allows identifying a variable stiffness over the spatial directions by identifying the random field variables with given measurement data. These changes can e.g. be caused by damage. The lognormal field is approximated as series expansion for the PGD problem. The derived efficient model identification procedure is shown using a real reinforced prestress demonstrator bridge and stereophotogrammetry measurement data. A digital twin for that demonstrator bridge is build up using a set of measurement data and verified by testing additional measurement data. PGD model error against the FEM model is discussed based on an importance sampling analysis computing the Bayes Factor.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Autor*innen:Annika Robens-Radermacher
Koautor*innen:Isabela Coehlo Lima, Jörg F. Unger
Dokumenttyp:Vortrag
Veröffentlichungsform:Präsentation
Sprache:Englisch
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung:2021
Organisationseinheit der BAM:7 Bauwerkssicherheit
7 Bauwerkssicherheit / 7.7 Modellierung und Simulation
DDC-Klassifikation:Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / Ingenieurwissenschaften / Ingenieurbau
Freie Schlagwörter:Bayesian inferences; Digital twin; Model updating; Proper generalized decomposition; Structure monitoring
Themenfelder/Aktivitätsfelder der BAM:Infrastruktur
Veranstaltung:COMPLAS 2021
Veranstaltungsort:Berlin, Germany
Beginndatum der Veranstaltung:08.09.2021
Enddatum der Veranstaltung:08.09.2021
Verfügbarkeit des Dokuments:Datei im Netzwerk der BAM verfügbar ("Closed Access")
Datum der Freischaltung:16.09.2021
Referierte Publikation:Nein
Eingeladener Vortrag:Nein
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