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As the natural gas market is moving towards short-term planning, accurate and robust short-term forecasts of the demand and supply of natural gas is of fundamental importance for a stable energy supply, a natural gas control schedule, and transport operation on a daily basis. We propose a hybrid forecast model, Functional AutoRegressive and Convolutional Neural Network model, based on state-of-the-art statistical modeling and artificial neural networks. We conduct short-term forecasting of the hourly natural gas flows of 92 distribution nodes in the German high-pressure gas pipeline network, showing that the proposed model provides nice and stable accuracy for different types of nodes. It outperforms all the alternative models, with an improved relative accuracy up to twofold for plant nodes and up to fourfold for municipal nodes. For the border nodes with rather flat gas flows, it has an accuracy that is comparable to the best performing alternative model.
In linear optimization, matrix structure can often be exploited algorithmically. However, beneficial presolving reductions sometimes destroy the special structure of a given problem. In this article, we discuss structure-aware implementations of presolving as part of a parallel interior-point method to solve linear programs with block-diagonal structure, including both linking variables and linking constraints. While presolving reductions are often mathematically simple, their implementation in a high-performance computing environment is a complex endeavor. We report results on impact, performance, and scalability of the resulting presolving routines on real-world energy system models with up to 700 million nonzero entries in the constraint matrix.
This study examines the usability of a real-world, large-scale natural gas transport infrastructure for hydrogen transport. We investigate whether a converted network can transport the amounts of hydrogen necessary to satisfy current energy demands. After introducing an optimization model for the robust transient control of hydrogen networks, we conduct computational experiments based on real-world demand scenarios. Using a representative network, we demonstrate that replacing each turbo compressor unit by four parallel hydrogen compressors, each of them comprising multiple serial compression stages, and imposing stricter rules regarding the balancing of in- and outflow suffices to realize transport in a majority of scenarios. However, due to the reduced linepack there is an increased need for technical and non-technical measures leading to a more dynamic network control. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed for compression increases by 364% on average.
A decision support system relies on frequent re-solving of similar problem instances. While the general structure remains the same in corresponding applications, the input parameters are updated on a regular basis. We propose a generative neural network design for learning integer decision variables of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations of these problems. We utilise a deep neural network discriminator and a MILP solver as our oracle to train our generative neural network. In this article, we present the results of our design applied to the transient gas optimisation problem. With the trained network we produce a feasible solution in 2.5s, use it as a warm-start solution, and thereby decrease global optimal solution solve time by 60.5%.
In this article, we discuss the Length-Constrained Cycle Partition Problem (LCCP). Besides edge weights, the undirected graph in LCCP features an individual critical weight value for each vertex. A cycle partition, i.e., a vertex disjoint cycle cover, is a feasible solution if the length of each cycle is not greater than the critical weight of each of the vertices in the cycle. The goal is to find a feasible partition with the minimum number of cycles. In this article, we discuss theoretical properties, preprocessing techniques, and two mixed-integer programming models (MIP) for LCCP both inspired by formulations for the closely related Travelling Salesperson Problem (TSP). Further, we introduce conflict hypergraphs, whose cliques yield valid constraints for the MIP models.
We conclude with a report on computational experiments conducted on (A)TSPLIB-based instances. As an example, we use a routing problem in which a fleet of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) patrols a set of areas.
The German high-pressure natural gas transport network consists of thousands of interconnected elements spread over more than 120,000 km of pipelines built during the last 100 years. During the last decade, we have spent many person-years to extract consistent data out of the available sources, both public and private. Based on two case studies, we present some of the challenges we encountered.
Preparing consistent, high-quality data is surprisingly hard, and the effort necessary can hardly be overestimated. Thus, it is particularly important to decide which strategy regarding data curation to adopt. Which precision of the data is necessary? When is it more efficient to work with data that is just sufficiently correct on average?
In the case studies we describe our experiences and the strategies we adopted to deal with the obstacles and to minimize future effort.
Finally, we would like to emphasize that well-compiled data sets, publicly available for research purposes, provide the grounds for building innovative algorithmic solutions to the challenges of the future.