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Four essays on statistical modelling of environmental data

  • This dissertation deals with geostatistical, time series, and regression analytical approaches for modelling spatio-temporal processes, using air quality data in the applications. The work is structured into four essays the abstracts of which are given in the following. The first essay is titled 'Spatial detrending revisited: Modelling local trend patterns in NO2-concentration in Belgium and Germany'. It is written in co-authorship by Prof. Dr. Harry Haupt and Dr. Angelika Schmid and published in 2018 in Spatial Statistics 28, pp. 331-351 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2018.04.004). Abstract Short-term predictions of air pollution require spatial modelling of trends, heterogeneities, and dependencies. Two-step methods allow real-time computations by separating spatial detrending and spatial extrapolation into two steps. Existing methods discuss trend models for specific environments and require specification search. Given more complex environments, specification search gets complicated by potential nonlinearities andThis dissertation deals with geostatistical, time series, and regression analytical approaches for modelling spatio-temporal processes, using air quality data in the applications. The work is structured into four essays the abstracts of which are given in the following. The first essay is titled 'Spatial detrending revisited: Modelling local trend patterns in NO2-concentration in Belgium and Germany'. It is written in co-authorship by Prof. Dr. Harry Haupt and Dr. Angelika Schmid and published in 2018 in Spatial Statistics 28, pp. 331-351 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2018.04.004). Abstract Short-term predictions of air pollution require spatial modelling of trends, heterogeneities, and dependencies. Two-step methods allow real-time computations by separating spatial detrending and spatial extrapolation into two steps. Existing methods discuss trend models for specific environments and require specification search. Given more complex environments, specification search gets complicated by potential nonlinearities and heterogeneities. This research embeds a nonparametric trend modelling approach in real-time two-step methods. Form and complexity of trends are allowed to vary across heterogeneous environments. The proposed method avoids ad hoc specifications and potential generated predictor problems in previous contributions. Examining Belgian and German air quality and land use data, local trend patterns are investigated in a data driven way and are compared to results computed with existing methods and variations thereof. An important aspect of our empirical illustration is the heterogeneity and superior performance of local trend patterns for both research regions. The findings suggest that a nonparametric spatial trend modelling approach is a valuable tool for real-time predictions of pollution variables: it avoids specification search, provides useful exploratory insights and reduces computational costs. The second essay is titled 'Predictability of hourly nitrogen dioxide concentration'. It is written in co-authorship with Prof. Dr. Harry Haupt and published in 2020 in Ecological Modelling 428, 109076 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109076). Abstract Temporal aggregation of air quality time series is typically used to investigate stylized facts of the underlying series such as multiple seasonal cycles. While aggregation reduces complexity, commonly used aggregates can suffer from non-representativeness or non-robustness. For example, definitions of specific events such as extremes are subjective and may be prone to data contaminations. The aim of this paper is to assess the predictability of hourly nitrogen dioxide concentrations and to explore how predictability depends on (i) level of temporal aggregation, (ii) hour of day, and (iii) concentration level. Exploratory tools are applied to identify structural patterns, problems related to commonly used aggregate statistics and suitable statistical modeling philosophies, capable of handling multiple seasonalities and non-stationarities. Hourly times series and subseries of daily measurements for each hour of day are used to investigate the predictability of pollutant levels for each hour of day, with prediction horizons ranging from one hour to one week ahead. Predictability is assessed by time series cross validation of a loss function based on out-of-sample prediction errors. Empirical evidence on hourly nitrogen dioxide measurements suggests that predictability strongly depends on conditions (i)-(iii) for all statistical models: for specific hours of day, models based on daily series outperform models based on hourly series, while in general predictability deteriorates with exposure level. The third essay is titled 'Agglomeration and infrastructure effects in land use regression models for air pollution – Specification, estimation, and interpretations'. It is written in co-authorship with Dr. Markus Fritsch and published in 2021 in Atmospheric Environment 253, 118337 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118337). Abstract Established land use regression (LUR) techniques such as linear regression utilize extensive selection of predictors and functional form to fit a model for every data set on a given pollutant. In this paper, an alternative to established LUR modeling is employed, which uses additive regression smoothers. Predictors and functional form are selected in a data-driven way and ambiguities resulting from specification search are mitigated. The approach is illustrated with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data from German monitoring sites using the spatial predictors longitude, latitude, altitude and structural predictors; the latter include population density, land use classes, and road traffic intensity measures. The statistical performance of LUR modeling via additive regression smoothers is contrasted with LUR modeling based on parametric polynomials. Model evaluation is based on goodness of fit, predictive performance, and a diagnostic test for remaining spatial autocorrelation in the error terms. Additionally, interpretation and counterfactual analysis for LUR modeling based on additive regression smoothers are discussed. Our results have three main implications for modeling air pollutant concentration levels: First, modeling via additive regression smoothers is supported by a specification test and exhibits superior in- and out-of-sample performance compared to modeling based on parametric polynomials. Second, different levels of prediction errors indicate that NO2 concentration levels observed at background and traffic/industrial monitoring sites stem from different processes. Third, accounting for agglomeration and infrastructure effects is important: NO2 concentration levels tend to increase around major cities, surrounding agglomeration areas, and their connecting road traffic network. The fourth essay is titled 'Outlier detection and visualisation in multi-seasonal time series and its application to hourly nitrogen dioxide concentration'. It is written in single authorship and has not been published yet. Abstract Outlier detection in data on air pollutant recordings is conducted to uncover data points that refer to either invalid measurements or valid but unusually high concentration levels. As air pollutant data is typically characterised by multiple seasonalities, the task of outlier detection is associated with the question of how to deal with such non-stationarities. The present work proposes a method that combines time series segmentation, seasonal adjustment, and standardisation of random variables. While the former two are employed to obtain subseries of homoskedastic data, the latter ensures comparability across the subseries. Further, the standardised version of the seasonally adjusted subseries represents a scaled measure for the outlyingness of each data point in the original time series from its mean and therefore forms a suitable basis for outlier detection. In an empirical application to data on hourly NO2 concentration levels recorded at a traffic monitoring site in Cologne, Germany, over the years 2016 to 2019, the common boxplot criterion is used to examine each standardised seasonally adjusted subseries for positive outliers. The results of the analyses are put into their natural temporal order and displayed in a heatmap layout that provides information on when single and sequential outliers occur.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Svenia Behm
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:739-opus4-10539
Advisor:Harry Haupt, Joachim Schnurbus
Document Type:Doctoral Thesis
Language:English
Year of Completion:2022
Date of Publication (online):2022/03/21
Date of first Publication:2022/03/21
Publishing Institution:Universität Passau
Granting Institution:Universität Passau, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Date of final exam:2022/02/03
Release Date:2022/03/21
Tag:Spatio-temporal modelling; environmental data; geostatistics; multiple seasonalities; regression; time series analysis
GND Keyword:StatistikGND; GeostatistikGND; UmweltdatenGND
Page Number:XIII, 137 Seiten
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
open_access (DINI-Set):open_access
Licence (German):License LogoStandardbedingung laut Einverständniserklärung