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Discrete-state Markov (or master equation) models provide a useful simplified representation for
characterizing the long-time statistical evolution of biomolecules in a manner that allows direct
comparison with experiments as well as the elucidation of mechanistic pathways for an inherently
stochastic process. A vital part of meaningful comparison with experiment is the characterization of
the statistical uncertainty in the predicted experimental measurement, which may take the form of
an equilibrium measurement of some spectroscopic signal, the time-evolution of this signal following
a perturbation, or the observation of some statistic (such as the correlation function) of the equilib-
rium dynamics of a single molecule. Without meaningful error bars (which arise due to the finite
quantity of data used to construct the model), there is no way to determine whether the deviations
between model and experiment are statistically meaningful. Previous work has demonstrated that
a Bayesian method that enforces microscopic reversibility can be used to characterize the correlated
uncertainties in state-to-state transition probabilities (and functions thereof) for a model inferred from
molecular simulation data. Here, we extend this approach to include the uncertainty in observables
that are functions of molecular conformation (such as surrogate spectroscopic signals) characteriz-
ing each state, permitting the full statistical uncertainty in computed spectroscopic experiments to be
assessed. We test the approach in a simple model system to demonstrate that the computed uncer-
tainties provide a useful indictor of statistical variation, and then apply it to the computation of the
fluorescence autocorrelation function measured for a dye-labeled peptide previously studied by both
experiment and simulation.
Dynamical fingerprints of macromolecules obtained from experiments often seem to indicate two- or
three state kinetics while simulations typically reveal a more complex picture. Markov state models of
molecular conformational dynamics can be used to predict these dynamical fingerprints and to reconcile
experiment with simulation. This is illustrated on two model systems: a one-dimensional energy surface
and a four-state model of a protein folding equilibrium. We show that (i) there might be no process
which corresponds to our notion of folding, (ii) often the experiment will be insensitive to some of the
processes present in the system, (iii) with a suitable combination the observable and initial conditions in
a relaxation experiment one can selectively measure specific processes. Furthermore, our method can be
used to design experiments such that specific processes appear with large amplitudes. We demonstrate
that for a fluorescence quenching experiment of the MR121-G9-W peptide.
Dynamical averages based on functionals of dynamical trajectories, such as time-correlation func-
tions, play an important role in determining kinetic or transport properties of matter. At temperatures
of interest, the expectations of these quantities are often dominated by contributions from rare events,
making the precise calculation of these quantities by molecular dynamics simulation difficult. Here,
we present a reweighting method for combining simulations from multiple temperatures (or from
simulated or parallel tempering simulations) to compute an optimal estimate of the dynamical prop-
erties at the temperature of interest without the need to invoke an approximate kinetic model (such as
the Arrhenius law). Continuous and differentiable estimates of these expectations at any temperature
in the sampled range can also be computed, along with an assessment of the associated statistical
uncertainty. For rare events, aggregating data from multiple temperatures can produce an estimate
of the desired precision at greatly reduced computational cost compared with simulations conducted
at a single temperature. Here, we describe use of the method for the canonical (NVT) ensemble us-
ing four common models of dynamics (canonical distribution of Hamiltonian trajectories, Andersen
thermostatting, Langevin, and overdamped Langevin or Brownian dynamics), but it can be applied to
any thermodynamic ensemble provided the ratio of path probabilities at different temperatures can be
computed. To illustrate the method, we compute a time-correlation function for solvated terminally-
blocked alanine peptide across a range of temperatures using trajectories harvested using a modified
parallel tempering protocol.