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Dynamical fingerprints of macromolecules obtained from experiments often seem to indicate two- or
three state kinetics while simulations typically reveal a more complex picture. Markov state models of
molecular conformational dynamics can be used to predict these dynamical fingerprints and to reconcile
experiment with simulation. This is illustrated on two model systems: a one-dimensional energy surface
and a four-state model of a protein folding equilibrium. We show that (i) there might be no process
which corresponds to our notion of folding, (ii) often the experiment will be insensitive to some of the
processes present in the system, (iii) with a suitable combination the observable and initial conditions in
a relaxation experiment one can selectively measure specific processes. Furthermore, our method can be
used to design experiments such that specific processes appear with large amplitudes. We demonstrate
that for a fluorescence quenching experiment of the MR121-G9-W peptide.
Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics
of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have
seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared
to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate
the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the
ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various
stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this article, we summarize the current state of
the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe
an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with an MSM
and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast
to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable
discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near
the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes
by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved
separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust
test to validate that an MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.
Resolving the apparent gap in complexity between
simulated and measured kinetics of biomolecules
(2012)
Molecular simulations of biomolecules often reveal a complex picture of the their kinetics,
whereas kinetic experiments typically seem to indicate considerably simpler two- or three-state
kinetics. Markov state models (MSM) provide a tool to link between simulation and experi-
ment, and to resolve this apparent contradiction.
Markov (state) models (MSMs) have attracted a lot of interest recently as they (1) can probe
long-term molecular kinetics based on short-time simulations, (2) offer a way to analyze great
amounts of simulation data with relatively little subjectivity of the analyst, (3) provide insight into
microscopic quantities such as the ensemble of transition pathways, and (4) allow simulation data
to be reconciled with measurement data in a rigorous and explicit way. Here we sketch our current
perspective of Markov models and explain in short their theoretical basis and assumptions. We
describe transition path theory which allows the entire ensemble of protein folding pathways to be
investigated and that combines naturally with Markov models. Experimental observations can be
naturally linked to Markov models with the dynamical fingerprint theory, by which experimentally
observable timescales can be equipped with an understanding of the structural rearrangement
processes that take place at these timescales. The concepts of this paper are illustrated by a
simple kinetic model of protein folding.
Single-molecule force spectroscopy has proven to be a powerful tool for studying the kinetic be- havior of biomolecules. Through application of an external force, conformational states with small or transient populations can be stabilized, allowing them to be characterized and the statistics of in- dividual trajectories studied to provide insight into biomolecular folding and function. Because the observed quantity (force or extension) is not necessarily an ideal reaction coordinate, individual ob- servations cannot be uniquely associated with kinetically distinct conformations. While maximum- likelihood schemes such as hidden Markov models have solved this problem for other classes of single-molecule experiments by using temporal information to aid in the inference of a sequence of distinct conformational states, these methods do not give a clear picture of how precisely the model parameters are determined by the data due to instrument noise and finite-sample statistics, both sig- nificant problems in force spectroscopy. We solve this problem through a Bayesian extension that allows the experimental uncertainties to be directly quantified, and build in detailed balance to fur- ther reduce uncertainty through physical constraints. We illustrate the utility of this approach in characterizing the three-state kinetic behavior of an RNA hairpin in a stationary optical trap.