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About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.
We present an exact rational solver for mixed-integer linear programming that avoids the numerical inaccuracies inherent in the floating-point computations used by existing software. This allows the solver to be used for establishing theoretical results and in applications where correct solutions are critical due to legal and financial consequences. Our solver is a hybrid symbolic/numeric implementation of LP-based branch-and-bound, using numerically-safe methods for all binding computations in the search tree. Computing provably accurate solutions by dynamically choosing the fastest of several safe dual bounding methods depending on the structure of the instance, our exact solver is only moderately slower than an inexact floating-point branch-and-bound solver. The software is incorporated into the SCIP optimization framework, using the exact LP solver QSopt_ex and the GMP arithmetic library. Computational results are presented for a suite of test instances taken from the MIPLIB and Mittelmann libraries and for a new collection of numerically difficult instances.
Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in Germany and Europe. In recent years, political regulations have led to a strict separation of gas trading and gas transport, thereby assigning a central role in energy politics to the transportation and distribution of gas. These newly imposed political requirements influenced the technical processes of gas transport in such a way that the complex task of planning and operating gas networks has become even more intricate. Mathematically, the combination of discrete decisions on the configuration of a gas transport network, the nonlinear equations describing the physics of gas, and the uncertainty in demand and supply yield large-scale and highly complex stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. The Matheon project "Optimization of Gas Transport" takes the key role of making available the necessary core technology to solve the mathematical optimization problems which model the topology planning and the operation of gas networks. An important aspect of the academic impact is the free availability of our framework. As a result of several years of research and development, it is now possible to download a complete state-of-the-art framework for mixed-integer linear and nonlinear programming in source code at http://scip.zib.de
Linear energy system models are a crucial component of energy system design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. If detailed enough, such models lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for the best state-of-the-art solvers. This article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed-memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly-bordered block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement based decomposition. In order to handle the large number of linking constraints and variables commonly observed in energy system models, a distributed Schur complement preconditioner is used. In addition, the solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is based on the solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate the computational performance on energy system models with up to four billion nonzero entries in the constraint matrix—and up to one billion columns and one billion rows. This article mainly concentrates on the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing market-clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy system analyses in recent years. However, it will be demonstrated that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models.
In 2005 the European Union liberalized the gas market with a disruptive change
and decoupled trading of natural gas from its transport. The gas is now trans-
ported by independent so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The
market model established by the European Union views the gas transmission
network as a black box, providing shippers (gas traders and consumers) the
opportunity to transport gas from any entry to any exit. TSOs are required
to offer the maximum possible capacities at each entry and exit such that any
resulting gas flow can be realized by the network. The revenue from selling these
capacities more than one billion Euro in Germany alone, but overestimating the
capacity might compromise the security of supply. Therefore, evaluating the
available transport capacities is extremely important to the TSOs.
This is a report on a large project in mathematical optimization, set out
to develop a new toolset for evaluating gas network capacities. The goals and
the challenges as they occurred in the project are described, as well as the
developments and design decisions taken to meet the requirements.
Cutting plane selection is a subroutine used in all modern mixed-integer linear programming solvers with the goal of selecting a subset of generated cuts that induce optimal solver performance. These solvers have millions of parameter combinations, and so are excellent candidates for parameter tuning. Cut selection scoring rules are usually weighted sums of different measurements, where the weights are parameters. We present a parametric family of mixed-integer linear programs together with infinitely many family-wide valid cuts. Some of these cuts can induce integer optimal solutions directly after being applied, while others fail to do so even if an infinite amount are applied. We show for a specific cut selection rule, that any finite grid search of the parameter space will always miss all parameter values, which select integer optimal inducing cuts in an infinite amount of our problems. We propose a variation on the design of existing graph convolutional neural networks, adapting them to learn cut selection rule parameters. We present a reinforcement learning framework for selecting cuts, and train our design using said framework over MIPLIB 2017 and a neural network verification data set. Our framework and design show that adaptive cut selection does substantially improve performance over a diverse set of instances, but that finding a single function describing such a rule is difficult. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/Adaptive-Cutsel-MILP.