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The paper studies the effect of uncertainty in firm-speciffic tax avoidance on firm value. We first show in a clean surplus valuation model that expectations about future profitability interact with corporate tax avoidance. Two dimensions of corporate tax avoidance strategies matter for valuation: uncertainty and level of expected future tax rates. We confirm the importance of level and uncertainty of tax avoidance for forecasts of future tax rates using a small sample of analyst tax rate forecasts. Consistent with the model and the implications from analyst forecasts, we derive a tax signal-to-noise ratio based on historical tax information. In our sample of 2,820 firms, we show empirically that this tax signal-to-noise ratio amplifies the effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value. Pre-tax earnings have a stronger effect on firm value for firms with effective and persistent tax avoidance. Firms with volatile effective tax rates receive a discount on their earnings.
Empirical evidence suggests that there is substantial cross-firm variation in the extent of tax avoidance. However, this variation is not well understood. This paper provides a theoretical background for testing, and thus explaining, cross-firm differences in tax avoidance. We develop a formal model with two agents to analyze the incentives that lead firms to engage in tax avoidance. The tax avoidance decision is a function of moral hazard, tax-planning costs, and the potential to increase earnings. If the potential to increase earnings is low, the tax-planning decision is determined by moral-hazard problems. In contrast, when this potential is high, the tax-planning decision is mainly driven by taxplanning costs, such as reputational and political costs. One implication of our model is that moral hazard can (partly) explain why some firms do not engage in tax avoidance: Severe problems of moral hazard make tax avoidance less likely. Our model can be applied to test dierences in tax avoidance between different types of firms.
We study the importance of owner wages and dividends as alternative payout channels in privately held firms. Using data on all Swedish closely held corporations and their owner–managers over the period 2000–2009, we find that dividends comprise one-fourth of total payout to owner–managers. Dividends are used as a flexible payout channel. Wages are the preferred payout channel and are rather sticky. Choice of payout channel and level of payout are affected by dividend and wage taxation. Consistent with the difference in flexibility across payout channels, shareholder taxes have a stronger impact on dividends than on wages.
This paper contrasts the individual capital gains realization behavior between progressive and proportional tax regimes. Using a longitudinal panel of over 288,000 individuals in Sweden, I exploit the 1991 tax reform in Sweden that changed progressive capital gains tax rates ranging from 12% to 80% to a proportional tax rate of 30%. Using the proportional tax system to control for non-tax reasons to realize capital gains, I show that individuals are highly responsive to capital gains tax incentives created by temporary income changes under a progressive capital gains tax. More specifically, I find that individuals with temporary negative (positive) income changes sell (hold) shares that they would hold (sell) in the absence of temporary tax incentives. Further, I show that high-income individuals are more tax sensitive than low-income individuals. This result indicates that low-income individuals facing temporary negative income changes could trade predominantly for non-tax reasons.
This paper studies the cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains realizations to labor income taxes when capital gains are taxed at a separate proportional tax rate. Using a longitudinal panel of over 265,000 individuals in Sweden, this paper shows in a regression kink design that labor income taxes affect capital gains at the extensive and intensive margins. An increase in the marginal labor income tax rate increases the likelihood of realizing capital gains and the amount of realized capital gains. One implication of this result is that the excess burden of labor income taxation is affected by cross-base tax elasticities.
This paper analyzes heterogeneity in capital gains tax elasticities across individuals. Using panel data of over 260,000 individuals, I find that the sensitivity of capital gains to taxes is decreasing over the individual life cycle. Younger individuals respond more strongly to changes in capital gains taxes than older individuals. An increase in age of 18 years decreases the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes by approximately 10%.
We analyze the effects of limited feedback on beliefs and contributions in a repeated public goods game setting. In a first experiment, we test whether exogenously determined feedback about a good example (i.e., the maximum contribution in a period) in contrast to a bad example (i.e., the minimum contribution in a period) induces higher contributions. We find that when the type of feedback is not transparent to the group members, good examples boost cooperation while bad examples hamper it. There is no difference when the type of feedback is transparent. In a second experiment, feedback is endogenously chosen by a group leader. The results show that a large majority of the group leaders count on the positive effect of providing a good example. This is true regardless whether they choose the feedback type to be transparent or non-transparent. Half of the group leaders make the type of feedback transparent. With endogenously chosen feedback about good examples no difference in contributions can be observed among transparent and non-transparent feedback selection. In both experiments feedback shapes subjects’ beliefs. With exogenously chosen feedback, transparent feedback tends to reduce beliefs when good examples are provided as feedback and tends to increase beliefs in when bad examples are provided as feedback compared to the respective non-transparent cases. Our results shed new light on the design of feedback rovision in public goods settings.
A fully unbundled, regulated network firm of unknown efficiency level can undertake unobservable effort to increase the likelihood of low downstream prices, e.g., by facilitating downstream competition. To incentivize such effort, the regulator can use an incentive scheme paying transfers to the firm contingent on realized downstream prices. Alternatively, the regulator can force the firm to sell the following forward contracts: the firm pays the downstream price to the owners of a contract, but receives the expected value of the contracts when selling them to a competitive financial market. We compare the two regulatory tools with respect to regulatory capture: if the regulator can be bribed to suppress information on the underlying state of the world (the basic probability of high downstream prices, or the type of the firm), optimal regulation uses forward contracts only.
The economic analysis of trade-secret protection has traditionally focused on the interests of companies to conceal information from competitors in order to gain a competitive advantage through trade-secret law. This has neglected cases in which the interest is not in concealing information from competitors, but from trading partners. We investigate the social efficiency effects of trade-secret protection in such cases. Many results from economic theory state that asymmetric information (and therefore also its legal protection) is socially undesirable since it leads to inefficient trade. At the same time, protecting private information might create incentives for socially desirable investments. We model this trade-off in a simple buyer-seller model and
nd that, indeed, trade-secret protection has ambiguous welfare effects. However, a simple, informationally undemanding rule, conditioning the applicability of legal protection on a minimum investment by the informed party to conceal the information, helps to apply trade-secret protection only when it increases welfare. This rationalizes important features of current legal practice.
Linear demand formulations for price competition in horizontally differentiated products are sometimes used to compare situations where additional varieties become available, e.g. due to market entry of new firms. We derive a consistent demand system to analyze such situations and highlight potential problems that can arise from an inconsistent approach.
In diesem Beitrag wird die Expansion eines Samples von 47 HDAX-Unternehmen zwischen 1995 und 2004 hinsichtlich des Expansionsverlaufs, der Expansionsrichtung (Internationalisierung und Diversifikation) und der Expansionsumsetzung beschrieben. Die Betrachtung von 1.830 einzelnen Expansionsschritten führt zu einem detaillierten und umfassenden Bild der Expansionspfade dieser Unternehmen. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass die Entwicklung der betrachteten Unternehmen sehr heterogen verläuft. Hieraus ergeben sich verschiedene interessante Fragestellungen und Implikationen für die weitere Forschung zur Expansion von Unternehmen. Vor allem scheint es fraglich, ob die bisherige Praxis, Internationalisierung und Produktdiversifikation getrennt zu betrachten, dem Phänomen der Expansion von Unternehmen gerecht wird.
The paper analyzes firms' expansion paths within and across industries and specifically different patterns along these paths. Using a procedure previously applied in statistical process control and employing longitudinal data on the expansion of 91 German firms, we analyzed firms' clustering behavior regarding different characteristics. Results reveal that expansion is a heterogeneous process: the clustering behavior along the expansion path does not only differ between firms, but also within one firm regarding different characteristics of its expansion path.
Changes in the regulatory framework allow German business schools to select an important part of their students by themselves for the first time through entrance exams. We analyze if the students participating in these entrance exams differ from average first-year business students and which factors influence their choice of a business school. A separate analysis for a cluster of very highly motivated students reveals that for these students a short study time and a practical Orientation are of utmost importance as decision criteria. We derive suggestions for German business schools that want to target this specific segment of students.
Research on strategic agenda building has traditionally emphasized individual agency, thereby neglecting organizational context. Developing a contextual model of strategic agenda building, we address this limitation. Based on the evolutionary framework we show that an organization’s core elements, that is, strategy, culture, structure and top management team, heavily influence what issues are considered in organizational agenda building processes. Moreover, the strategic agenda building process, apart from the role of capabilities and cognition, provides an alternative explanation for path dependency.
Diversification research
(2006)
Die Musik- und Spielfilmindustrie unterliegt sowohl auf der Angebots- als auch auf der Nachfrageseite einem Wandel. Der Beitrag untersucht, wie die Anbieter auf die aus dem Wandel resultierenden Bedrohungen reagieren. Auf großzahliger empirischer Basis werden hierfür zunächst die Marketing-Mixe systematisch erfaßt. Ausgehend hiervon werden Hypothesen getestet, die die Gestaltung der Marketing-Mixe in Beziehung zu der akuten Bedrohungslage in dieser Industrie setzten. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, daß bislang eine adäquate Gestaltung der Vermarktung als Gegenreaktion auf die momentane Wettbewerbssituation in der Musik- und Filmindustrie nicht hinreichend erfolgt ist, woraus sich weitreichende Potentiale zur Neugestaltung der Marketing-Mixe ergeben.
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs should be used in order to support knowledge management in multinational companies. These questions are important for two reasons. Firstly, so far only a few papers discuss the relationship between knowledge management and e-learning. Secondly, e-leaming initiatives in multinational companies are of limited success. The paper relates requirements of different types of knowledge with the characteristics of e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs. Based on this, the paper shows how multinational companies should use e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs. Different roles of corporate headquarters are discussed in this context.
Within the e-leaming industry, demand and supply factors jointly determine a need for mass customization of e-leaming products. This paper asks whether e-leaming products can be mass-customized, and if so, how this can be done. Firstly, the paper characterizes e-leaming and e-leaming technologies. Secondly, a learning model is developed in order to enhance the understanding of how learning processes differ across individuals. Based on this, the paper argues that e-leaming products in general can be mass-customized. However, mass customization is only possible for some e-leaming technologies and some types of communication, namely instruction and supplementary interaction, while it cannot support collaboration. In this context, solutions for the most common problems of mass customization are discussed. The results are then applied to the market for higher management education. It is shown that mass customization has a limited relevance for degree programs that are demanded by individuals, while it is crucial for programs that are either demanded by organizations or offered in specialized modules.
Unternehmensentwicklung
(2004)
Der Beitrag erfasst den Stand der Forschung zum Gebiet der Untemehmensentwicklung. Hierbei werden Arbeiten aus mehr als einem Jahrhundert eingeschlossen. Aus den bestehenden Forschungsstromungen wird ein Konzept fur die weitere Forschung zur Untemehmensentwicklung hergeleitet. Methodisch ist der Beitrag der konzeptionellen Forschung zuzuordnen. Die existierenden Ansatze werden anhand verwendeter Grundannahmen miteinander verglichen. Das erarbeitete Konzept fur die weitere Forschung setzt auf bestimmten Ausprägungen hinsichtlich dieser Grundannahmen auf. Der Beitrag versucht, der Diskussion der Untemehmensentwicklung neue Impulse fur die weitere empirische Forschung sowohl im Hinblick auf die inhaltliche als auch die methodische Gestaltung zu verleihen. Fur die Praxis versucht der Beitrag, ein Konzept bereitzustellen, anhand dessen Entscheidungstrager eigene Handlungen spiegeln konnen, um auf Schwachstellen in der Entwicklung des eigenen Unternehmens aufmerksam zu werden. Darüber hinaus liefert der Beitrag fur die Akteure der Kapitalmärkte Ansatzpunkte zur besseren Fundierung der Bewertung von Untemehmensentwicklungen.
Die ökonomische Bewertung von Arbeitsflexibilisierungsmaßnahmen mit Hilfe des Realoptionsansatzes
(1999)
Corporate risk management may employ financial or operative means to reduce the exposure to unexpected currency fluctuations. This paper utilizes a real options framework to establish that operative hedging through the creation of operational flexibility represents a strategic complement to any variance-minimizing financial hedge. In addition, operational flexibility creates an asymmetric exposure profile and, as a result, alters the composition of the financial hedge portfolio. It alters the number of symmetric hedge contracts employed as well as their contractual rate and provides an economic argument for the use of (exotic) currency options. Operational flexibility acts as a value driver through the option value and may therefore be utilized, independent of its usefulness for risk management. The analysis further shows that operative hedging entails an implicit opportunity cost in the form of foregone option value.
Background: In view of steadily rising healthcare expenditures (HCE), studies on spending distributions can provide important guidance for policy decisions. Since the majority of HCE is concentrated in a few high-cost cases, this study focusses on the spending distribution between different cost-risk groups. We show detailed allocation structures, distinguishing several categories of HCE and the survival status of insureds to gain insights regarding the share of mortality costs.
Methods: Our analyses rely on data from a large sickness fund that covers around four million insureds. We classify the population into ten equal risk groups by costs and then determine expenditure shares of total HCE and daily per-capita expenditures depending on survival status and risk group affiliation.
Results: Our results offer that the often stated dominating effect of mortality costs of HCE is only evident in lower cost-risk groups and almost exclusively attributable to inpatient care. Furthermore, HCE in the calendar year of death is the same for most cost-risk groups, with the exception of risk groups at both ends of the distribution. However, in the case of the highest cost-risk group, the difference between survivors and decedents is proportionally small. The differences in cost structure between decedents in high-risk and other risk groups are primarily attributable to pharmaceutical spending.
Conclusion: Short-term high HCE in the year of death occur equally in all cost-risk groups and are hardly avoidable. By contrast, in the extremely high cost-risk groups, the cost difference between the year before death and the year of death is much smaller. Overall, this group remains the main target to influence the rise in HCE and its characteristics should be considered with respect to future HCE projections.
Das Family Office
(2006)
The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is still an unresolved problem worldwide. The most visible effect of AMR, healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), imposes a substantial financial burden on the healthcare system through exacerbation or prolongation of illness and subsequent in-hospital treatment. The impact of the emergence and spread of AMR, however, is not limited to an increase in the number of HAIs. AMR also impacts patients who do not become infected. As in-hospital resistance patterns change over time, rationale weighting induces decision-makers to adjust their behaviour in order to provide the best possible treatment in a changing environment of resistance. In settings where resistant organisms are prevalent, for instance, physicians routinely change empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance to the relevant resistance indicator, leading to differences in costs, dosing schedules, and/or side-effect profiles.
The effects of such resistance-induced antibiotic substitution effects are highly relevant in intensive care units (ICUs) where treatment failure often has severe consequences. In ICU settings, first line antibiotic therapy is highly standardized and widely empiric. On the other hand, there is a limited number of reserve antibiotics, whose prices and/or side effects are substantially higher than first-line therapy. We hypothesize that a rise in resistance to first line agents increases demand for the respective reserve agents. In order to provide first estimates of these resistance-induced substitution effects, we conducted a panel data regression analysis on monthly antibiotic use and resistance data from 66 ICUs between 2001 and 2012.
We chose an estimation using unit-fixed effects and selected combinations of first line agents and their substituting reserve agent in accordance with an expert opinion-guided and pre-defined set of variables. The investigated reserve antibiotics (Carbapenems, Glycopeptides and Linezolid) represent a large part of all reserve antibiotics and on average 15% of all prescribed antibiotics.
The findings of the three core regressions support the hypothesis that demand for antibiotics significantly increases when lower level resistance rises. For some regressions the lagged effect of resistance is also significant, supporting the conjecture that part of the substitution effect is caused by physicians changing antibiotic choices in empiric treatment by adapting their resistance expectation to new information on resistance prevalence. In contrast, there is no lagged effect related to the occurrence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). This may be explained by the availability of rapid testing, which is increasingly used to immediately screen patients for MRSA, commonly resulting in definitive therapy being promptly available.
The results are robust to different specifications of the empirical model, and the findings imply that expectations play an important role in the demand for antibiotics. For policy makers, an important finding may be that the availability and accuracy of information about prevalence of pathogens and resistance rates can increase treatment optimality by allowing physicians to efficiently balance the trade-off of resistance and treatment success.
Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich auf Basis von Routinedaten der AOK-Plus mit Pflegeverläufen von über 60-Jährigen in Deutschland. Unsere Analysen zeigen eine rechtsschiefe Verteilung der Pflegeverläufe für beide Ge-schlechter. Demnach sind 50 Prozent der weiblichen (männlichen) Pflegefälle nach 45 (26) Monaten verstorben, wohingegen die mittlere Verweildauer in der Pflege bei 51,4 (36,6) Monaten liegt. Die mit diesen Pflegverläufen verbundenen Gesamtkosten der Pflege summieren sich nach unseren Berechnungen im Mittel auf einen Barwert von 68.871 (45.233) Euro. Die Analyse der Pflegestufen mittels eines multinominalen logistischen Modells zeigt für die vorliegenden Daten zudem, dass im Beobachtungszeitraum eine Kompression der Pflegeverläufe stattge-funden hat. So wird eine höhere Pflegestufe und somit ein schwerwiegenderer Pflegeverlauf mit zunehmendem Abstand vom Tod sowie zunehmendem Alter für beide Geschlechter unwahrscheinlicher.
This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signaling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For U.S. firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e., signaling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.
A growing body of literature investigates the interaction of changes in accounting standards with institutions such as investor protection laws and corporate governance mechanisms. We examine the unintended consequences of fair value accounting in determining mandated preferred dividends. We study the case of Russian energy conglomerate UES, which had a good corporate governance track record and a consistent dividend history. Following its adoption of fair value accounting, UES reported the highest quarterly profit in world corporate history, but it subsequently omitted dividends for all its shareholders. The case analysis suggests that the transitory nature of fair value adjustments and the interaction with the investment policy were important considerations in justifying the dividend omission. The reduction in preferred dividends was not offset by any capital gains, and led to a wealth transfer from preferred to ordinary shareholders. Thus, requiring the use of fair value accounting when determining the dividend distribution base can lead to unintended consequences, and increase agency costs for minority shareholders.
Fair value and audit fees
(2012)
This paper investigates the effect of fair value reporting and its attributes on audit fees. We use as our primary sample the European real estate industry around mandatory IFRS adoption (under which reporting of property fair values becomes compulsory), due to its unique operating and reporting characteristics. We document lower audit fees for firms reporting property assets at fair value relative to those employing depreciated cost―a difference that appears driven (in part) by impairment tests that occur only under depreciated cost. We further find that audit fees are decreasing in firm’s exposure to fair value, and increasing both in the complexity of the fair value estimation and for recognition (versus only disclosure) of fair values. We corroborate our findings in two alternative settings: contrasting UK and US real estate firms; and using UK investment trusts. Overall, the results suggest that fair values can lead to lower monitoring costs; however, any reductions in audit fees will vary with salient characteristics of the fair value reporting, including the difficulty to measure and the treatment within the financial statements.
This study investigates why countries mandate accruals in the definition of corporate taxable income. Accruals alleviate timing and matching problems in cash flows, which smoothes taxable income and thus better aligns it with underlying economic performance. These accrual properties can be desirable in the tax setting as tax authorities seek more predictable corporate tax revenues. However, they can also make tax revenues procyclical by increasing the correlation between aggregate corporate tax revenues and aggregate economic activity. We argue that accruals shape the distribution of corporate tax revenues, which leads regulators to incorporate accruals into the definition of taxable income to balance the portfolio of government revenues and expenditures. Using a sample of 26 OECD countries, we find support for several theoretically motivated factors explaining the use of accruals in tax codes. We first provide evidence that corporate tax revenues are less volatile in high accrual countries, but high accrual countries collect relatively higher (lower) tax revenues when the corporate sector grows (contracts). Critically, we then show that accruals and smoother tax revenues are favored by countries with higher levels of government spending on public services and uncertain future expenditures, while countries with procyclical other tax collections favor cash rules and lower procyclicality of corporate tax revenues.
This paper studies the effect of the strength of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on FDI activity. We develop an index for the strength of international dispute settlement provisions included in BITs in order to examine the role the content of BITs plays in attracting FDI. To this end we make use of data from the UNCTAD's International Investment Agreement Mapping Project and measure the provision strength of 1,676 BITs. Using panel data of bilateral and total inward FDI flows and stocks we study the effect of BITs on FDI. Our main finding indicates that stronger international dispute settlement provisions in BITs are indeed associated with positive effects on FDI activity.
We examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic decline expected in Germany in 2020. The magnitude of the economic slump that will occur in 2020 depends on the extent of the slump during the shutdown, on the point in time, at which a significant easing of shutdown occurs, and on the length of adjustment process towards the structures that prevailed before the pandemic. We derive several scenarios and find that the shutdown will only remain in the single-digit percentage range if we apply very optimistic assumptions about the extent of the initial decline in GDP during the shutdown and the speed of adjustment after opening up of the economy. However, assuming that the economic crisis cannot end before the medical crisis ends, which medical experts project not to happen before the end of 2020, such optimistic assumptions do not appear realistic. Hence, we find it more likely that the percentage decline of GDP in Germany will be two-digit in 2020. Our findings are in contrast to the growth projections recently issued by the German Council of Economic Experts or by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany.
We use data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll to analyze how current account forecasters form expectations. Our results suggest that forecasts do not satisfy traditional unbiasedness and orthogonality criteria for forecast rationality. In addition, we find anti-herding behavior among forecasters for the Euro area and G7 countries. We also show that the cross-sectional heterogeneity in anti-herding is associated with cross-sectional heterogeneity in forecast accuracy. More specifically, we find some evidence indicating that forecasters who tend to herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who follow an anti-herding strategy.
In der vorliegenden Studie werden die finanzwirtschaftlichen und makroökonomischen Effekte der Einführung einer Leverage Ratio Regel in das internationale Bankensystem untersucht. Die Leverage Ratio ist eine risikoungewichtete Maßzahl zur Bestimmung der Eigenkapitalausstattung von Banken. Sie soll an die Seite der herkömmlichen Basel II Regeln gestellt werden, die das Risiko bei der Bestimmung des geforderten Eigenkapitals berücksichtigen. Die Studie kommt zu folgenden Ergebnissen: Erstens setzt die Leverage Ratio Anreize, die in eine unerwünschte Richtung gehen. Sie schafft Anreize für Banken, Bilanzpositionen in Zukunft verstärkt über den Kapitalmarkt abzuwickeln, Absicherungspositionen in Derivaten aufzulösen und das Kreditangebot zurück zu fahren. Zweitens benachteiligt die Leverage Ratio deutsche Banken stärker als andere europäische oder angelsächsische Banken. Drittens sind die volkswirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Einführung einer Leverage Ratio markant. Sie dürfte zu einer Reduzierung des Kreditangebots und damit zu einer Verlangsamung der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität führen. Dennoch gehen die Autoren dieser Studie davon aus, dass die Leverage Ratio als weiteres Regulierungselement kommen wird. Dieses Gutachten rät aber dazu, die Leverage Ratio nur mit einer beträchtlichen Übergangsfrist einzuführen. Dadurch kann den Banken Gelegenheit gegeben werden, die Anpassung des tatsächlichen an das regulatorische Niveau der Leverage Ratio über die Bildung von Eigenkapital zu erreichen. Dies würde auch unerwünschte volkswirtschaftliche Kosten zu vermeiden helfen.
This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations. In order to explain the expectation formation of forecasters, around 50,000 forecasts for 22 OECD-member currencies are analyzed. The results indicate that forecasters do not form expectations rationally when tested for unbiasedness and orthogonality. The results also suggest that forecasts for industrialized economies show a mix of trend-following and fundamentally-oriented behavior. By contrast, forecasts for emerging markets show significantly more destabilizing expectations. We find forecasting tendencies to strengthen in the short-run and medium-run when controlling for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. For long-run forecasts however this can not be confirmed.
We use the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecaster to show that euro area expectations are consistent with standard macroeconomic building blocks such as the Phillips curve, Okun's law, and the Taylor rule. Moreover, the paper finds that the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 did not change the expectation formation process as professional forecasters still adopt macroeconomic building blocks for their forecast. The scepticism that has recently been raised concerning macroeconomic building blocks has apparently not yet affected professional forecasts. On the contrary, we conclude that professional forecasters still have faith in macroeconomic building blocks.
In this paper, we study the bias in interest rate projections for four central banks, namely for Czech Republic, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. We examine whether central bank projections are based on an asymmetric loss function and report evidence that central banks perceive an overprojection of their longer-term interest rate forecasts as twice as costly as an underprojection of the same size. We document that rationality is consistent with biased interest rate projections which contribute to explaining the central banks’ behavior.
This paper documents that ECB announcements on monetary policy increase stock market volatility in the euro area (EA) using several volatility measures from January 1999 to December 2019. Employing event study methods, a more pronounced impact exists following the global financial crisis starting in 2007. All assets react similarly so that no national peculiarities arise. The effects also spill over to 12 non-EA markets analyzed. Stock markets are more sensitive to negative monetary policy news than to positive ones. Further weighting the announcements by financial market reactions, stock markets behave in a more heterogeneous way.
Our paper estimates the impact of immigration on the sustainability of the Italian public finances using the methodology of Generational Accounting. We take into account socio-economic differences between the main migrants’ communities resident in Italy and we present three possible scenarios to reflect the potential economic degree of integration of foreigners in the Italian territory. Moreover, for each scenario we propose several options for migrants concerning both the length of permanence in Italy and the possible collection of retirement benefits. Our results show that the burden of current fiscal policy reduces as integration of the foreign-born increases. If migrants’ children are economically perfectly integrated, the fiscal gap is reduced from 71.9 to -15.3 percent of GDP.
This paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s nonstandard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of euro area member states. It covers data from 11 euro area countries from January 1, 2007 to August 31, 2017 and distinguishes between the more solvent countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands) and the less solvent ones (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, it is the first paper to reveal that measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. Second, it quantifies the country-specific extent of yield reduction which seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The reduction of the spread between both groups in response to an event is due to a stronger decrease in the less solvent group. Third, this result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the spread level, which is an innovation in this strand of literature. By employing different data as control variables, it turns out that the results are robust for a given event set.
This paper examines the recession probabilities for the Eurozone along four different dimensions: First, we identify the best performing indicators for a recession within the next 12 months based on 43 underlying single variables and their different transformations in a benchmark model. We find that a modified version of the yield curve incorporating the shadow interest rate removes the downward rigidity of the front-leg and restores part of the informational content of the term spread at the zero lower bound. However, the best performing single indicator of the benchmark model is Real M1 followed by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the investment grade corporate bond spread and the Terms of Trade. Second, the paper establishes three submodels to increase the lead-time and the stability of recession models: (i) Monetary transmission channels via principal component analysis; (ii) Bivariate regressions to identify paramount combinations; (iii) Unstable surges vis-à-vis the Hodrick-Prescott trend to detect animal spirits and hawkish mistakes. Third, the analysis is extended over various forecasting horizons (6m, 18m and 24m). Fourth, the results are analyzed from the perspective of risk-affine and risk-averse investors.
This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the Eurozone. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further.