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Background: In view of steadily rising healthcare expenditures (HCE), studies on spending distributions can provide important guidance for policy decisions. Since the majority of HCE is concentrated in a few high-cost cases, this study focusses on the spending distribution between different cost-risk groups. We show detailed allocation structures, distinguishing several categories of HCE and the survival status of insureds to gain insights regarding the share of mortality costs.
Methods: Our analyses rely on data from a large sickness fund that covers around four million insureds. We classify the population into ten equal risk groups by costs and then determine expenditure shares of total HCE and daily per-capita expenditures depending on survival status and risk group affiliation.
Results: Our results offer that the often stated dominating effect of mortality costs of HCE is only evident in lower cost-risk groups and almost exclusively attributable to inpatient care. Furthermore, HCE in the calendar year of death is the same for most cost-risk groups, with the exception of risk groups at both ends of the distribution. However, in the case of the highest cost-risk group, the difference between survivors and decedents is proportionally small. The differences in cost structure between decedents in high-risk and other risk groups are primarily attributable to pharmaceutical spending.
Conclusion: Short-term high HCE in the year of death occur equally in all cost-risk groups and are hardly avoidable. By contrast, in the extremely high cost-risk groups, the cost difference between the year before death and the year of death is much smaller. Overall, this group remains the main target to influence the rise in HCE and its characteristics should be considered with respect to future HCE projections.
This paper proposes a method for deriving the joint asymptotic distribution of sample proportions when the population and sample size increase jointly to infinity. The joint distribution of the sample proportions is derived by reducing the multi- variate to a univariate problem and applying the Cramer-Wold device. Knowing the asymptotic distribution we are in a position to conduct inference on linear or non-linear functions of the population proportions such as a ratio or the log-odds. We motivate and develop our method by means of a topical epidemiological application, namely the infection fatality rate of a virus such as SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that our method can be extended to more general settings of interest.
The profession of anaesthesia technologist is a relatively new profession in Germany. The German hospital Association published the first training guideline in 2011. Likewise the surgical technologist profession, the profession of anaesthesia technologists are not officially certified. Hence, similar disadvantages such as further career restrictions and uncertainties in case of unemployment exist. Even the hospitals need to cover the full training expenses. The training of an anaesthesia technologist lasts three years, containing of practical work experience within the anaesthesia units such as the post-anaesthesia caring unit and a theoretical education. The action site is limited to the anaesthesia units only. An anaesthesia technologist is an assistant to the doctor and takes care of the patient before, during and after the anaesthesia. Since the anaesthesia technologist profession is a very young profession group, little is known about the preferences of this group. However, hospital manager need to understand the individual preferences to be able to provide a target group tailored recruitment.
The motivation was to provide results to inform the human resource management of hospitals about the preferences of the very young profession group of anaesthesia technologist with respect to contribute to a successful development of this profession in order to cope with the current labour shortage crisis.
This paper documents that ECB announcements on monetary policy increase stock market volatility in the euro area (EA) using several volatility measures from January 1999 to December 2019. Employing event study methods, a more pronounced impact exists following the global financial crisis starting in 2007. All assets react similarly so that no national peculiarities arise. The effects also spill over to 12 non-EA markets analyzed. Stock markets are more sensitive to negative monetary policy news than to positive ones. Further weighting the announcements by financial market reactions, stock markets behave in a more heterogeneous way.
We examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic decline expected in Germany in 2020. The magnitude of the economic slump that will occur in 2020 depends on the extent of the slump during the shutdown, on the point in time, at which a significant easing of shutdown occurs, and on the length of adjustment process towards the structures that prevailed before the pandemic. We derive several scenarios and find that the shutdown will only remain in the single-digit percentage range if we apply very optimistic assumptions about the extent of the initial decline in GDP during the shutdown and the speed of adjustment after opening up of the economy. However, assuming that the economic crisis cannot end before the medical crisis ends, which medical experts project not to happen before the end of 2020, such optimistic assumptions do not appear realistic. Hence, we find it more likely that the percentage decline of GDP in Germany will be two-digit in 2020. Our findings are in contrast to the growth projections recently issued by the German Council of Economic Experts or by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany.
Nursing without caring?
(2019)
We know that existing professions in the health care sector value work environment and job conditions to a great extent. However, we are also witnessing an expansion of new roles into the health care sector, many of which substitutie the tasks of existing professions. This may be efficient, in that it releases professionals’ time. However, there is little understanding of what motivates these new professions in entering or remaining in these newly created roles. This study tries to evaluate the preference structure of one of these new staff groups, surgical technologist, through examining the preferences of trainees, defined over a number of attributes, in this group. The DCE study covers 80% of the target population. The results show a vigorous disfavour towards any perceived nursing job characteristics such as caring activities, hierarchical work environment or shift types. The results inform policy makers and hospital manager about the importance to focus not only on the nursing profession but also to take into account the existence of a group of people who is willing to work within the health care system however, associated with strong preferences against nursing activities, especially caring. Implementing and further development of new and specialised profession through reallocating former nursing tasks- should be considered while coping with labour shortage.
This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the Eurozone. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further.
This paper examines the recession probabilities for the Eurozone along four different dimensions: First, we identify the best performing indicators for a recession within the next 12 months based on 43 underlying single variables and their different transformations in a benchmark model. We find that a modified version of the yield curve incorporating the shadow interest rate removes the downward rigidity of the front-leg and restores part of the informational content of the term spread at the zero lower bound. However, the best performing single indicator of the benchmark model is Real M1 followed by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the investment grade corporate bond spread and the Terms of Trade. Second, the paper establishes three submodels to increase the lead-time and the stability of recession models: (i) Monetary transmission channels via principal component analysis; (ii) Bivariate regressions to identify paramount combinations; (iii) Unstable surges vis-à-vis the Hodrick-Prescott trend to detect animal spirits and hawkish mistakes. Third, the analysis is extended over various forecasting horizons (6m, 18m and 24m). Fourth, the results are analyzed from the perspective of risk-affine and risk-averse investors.
Gone with the windfall
(2018)
Due to the debate about the generosity of LTC insurance benefits the German government decided to increase benefits and widen the circle of LTC beneficiaries with the Second LTC Strengthening Act. In this paper, we evaluate the long-term implications of this recent reform for the German LTC insurance scheme. Using the framework of generational accounting we show that the reform has led to a widening of the short-term gap between revenues and expenditure and that the LTC insurance is not sustainably financed, neither pre- nor post-reform. By the early 2020s there will be fiscal pressure for further reforms. From an intergenerational perspective, the reform can be seen as a windfall to current beneficiaries increasing the intergenerational redistribution through the pay-as-you-go system.
This paper develops techniques of estimation and inference in a prototypical macroeconomic adaptive learning model with slowly decreasing gains. A sequential three-step procedure based on a `super-consistent' estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter is proposed. It is shown that this procedure is asymptotically equivalent to first estimating the structural parameters jointly via ordinary least-squares (OLS) and then using the so-obtained estimates to form a plug-in estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter. In spite of failing Grenander's conditions for well-behaved data, a limiting normal distribution of the estimators centered at the true parameters is derived. Although this distribution is singular, it can nevertheless be used to draw inferences about joint restrictions by applying results from Andrews (1987) to show that Wald-type statistics remain valid when equipped with a pseudo-inverse. Monte-Carlo evidence confirms the accuracy of the asymptotic theory for the finite sample behaviour of estimators and test statistics discussed here.
We analyze the effects of limited feedback on beliefs and contributions in a repeated public goods game setting. In a first experiment, we test whether exogenously determined feedback about a good example (i.e., the maximum contribution in a period) in contrast to a bad example (i.e., the minimum contribution in a period) induces higher contributions. We find that when the type of feedback is not transparent to the group members, good examples boost cooperation while bad examples hamper it. There is no difference when the type of feedback is transparent. In a second experiment, feedback is endogenously chosen by a group leader. The results show that a large majority of the group leaders count on the positive effect of providing a good example. This is true regardless whether they choose the feedback type to be transparent or non-transparent. Half of the group leaders make the type of feedback transparent. With endogenously chosen feedback about good examples no difference in contributions can be observed among transparent and non-transparent feedback selection. In both experiments feedback shapes subjects’ beliefs. With exogenously chosen feedback, transparent feedback tends to reduce beliefs when good examples are provided as feedback and tends to increase beliefs in when bad examples are provided as feedback compared to the respective non-transparent cases. Our results shed new light on the design of feedback rovision in public goods settings.
This paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s nonstandard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of euro area member states. It covers data from 11 euro area countries from January 1, 2007 to August 31, 2017 and distinguishes between the more solvent countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands) and the less solvent ones (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, it is the first paper to reveal that measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. Second, it quantifies the country-specific extent of yield reduction which seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The reduction of the spread between both groups in response to an event is due to a stronger decrease in the less solvent group. Third, this result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the spread level, which is an innovation in this strand of literature. By employing different data as control variables, it turns out that the results are robust for a given event set.
At the beginning of their career civil servants in Germany can choose between the social health insurance (SHI) system and a private plan combined with a direct reimbursement of the government of up to 70 percent. Most civil servants chose the latter, not only but also because they have to cover all contribution payments in the social system themselves, while normal employees get nearly 50 percent from their employers. The city state of Hamburg decided to change the system by paying a share of the contributions if civil servants choose the social plan. We use a stochastic microsimulation model to analyse which socio-economic types of civil servants could benefit from the Hamburg plan and if this changes the mix of insured persons in the SHI system. Our results show that low income and high morbidity types as well as families have a substantially higher incentive to choose SHI. This reform might thereby increase the adverse selection of high risk cases towards SHI.
This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations. In order to explain the expectation formation of forecasters, around 50,000 forecasts for 22 OECD-member currencies are analyzed. The results indicate that forecasters do not form expectations rationally when tested for unbiasedness and orthogonality. The results also suggest that forecasts for industrialized economies show a mix of trend-following and fundamentally-oriented behavior. By contrast, forecasts for emerging markets show significantly more destabilizing expectations. We find forecasting tendencies to strengthen in the short-run and medium-run when controlling for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. For long-run forecasts however this can not be confirmed.
In this paper, we study the bias in interest rate projections for four central banks, namely for Czech Republic, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. We examine whether central bank projections are based on an asymmetric loss function and report evidence that central banks perceive an overprojection of their longer-term interest rate forecasts as twice as costly as an underprojection of the same size. We document that rationality is consistent with biased interest rate projections which contribute to explaining the central banks’ behavior.
In this article we examine the influence of two goal compensation schemes on lying behavior. Based on the die rolling task of Fischbacher/Föllmi-Heusi (2013), we apply an individual goal incentive scheme and a team goal incentive scheme. In both settings individuals receive a fixed bonus when attaining the goal. We find that under team goal incentives subjects are less inclined to over-report production outputs beyond the amount which is on average necessary for goal attainment. Investigating subjects’ beliefs on their team mates’ behavior under team goal incentives reveals that subjects who either believe that lying is not profitable (i.e., the team goal cannot be reached with a lie) or not absolutely necessary (i.e., there is a good chance that the team goal can also be reached without lying) tend to be honest. We also find that subjects who believe that the team goal has already been reached by their team mates tend to over-report production outputs. Across treatments, women are found to be more honest than men. Subjects’ ersonality is not associated with reported production outputs. Our work contributes to previous research on how different compensation schemes affect unethical behavior in organizational settings.
Our paper estimates the impact of immigration on the sustainability of the Italian public finances using the methodology of Generational Accounting. We take into account socio-economic differences between the main migrants’ communities resident in Italy and we present three possible scenarios to reflect the potential economic degree of integration of foreigners in the Italian territory. Moreover, for each scenario we propose several options for migrants concerning both the length of permanence in Italy and the possible collection of retirement benefits. Our results show that the burden of current fiscal policy reduces as integration of the foreign-born increases. If migrants’ children are economically perfectly integrated, the fiscal gap is reduced from 71.9 to -15.3 percent of GDP.
This paper studies the effect of the strength of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on FDI activity. We develop an index for the strength of international dispute settlement provisions included in BITs in order to examine the role the content of BITs plays in attracting FDI. To this end we make use of data from the UNCTAD's International Investment Agreement Mapping Project and measure the provision strength of 1,676 BITs. Using panel data of bilateral and total inward FDI flows and stocks we study the effect of BITs on FDI. Our main finding indicates that stronger international dispute settlement provisions in BITs are indeed associated with positive effects on FDI activity.
This study examines heterogeneity in tax rate elasticities of corporate capital using staggered variation in local business tax rates of German municipalities. The results suggest an average long-run capital decline of 0.97% after a 1% increase in the tax rate. In line with prior literature that suggests higher investment-cash flow sensitivities of firms with financing constraints tax rate elasticities are up to half times larger for financially constrained firms than for unconstrained firms. Moreover, capital responses are about half times larger for firms with fewer tax avoidance possibilities. Finally, this study contributes to the literature on tax incidence. I find a weaker relation between taxes and capital for firms that are less likely to bear the economic burden of the tax because they shift the tax incidence to their stakeholders.
Strong consistency of the least squares estimator in regression models with adaptive learning
(2017)
This paper looks at the strong consistency of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in a stereotypical macroeconomic model with adaptive learning. It is a companion to Christopeit & Massmann (2017, Econometric Theory) which considers the estimator’s convergence in distribution and its weak consistency in the same setting. Under constant gain learning, the model is closely related to stationary, (alternating) unit root or explosive autoregressive processes. Under decreasing gain learning, the regressors in the model are asymptotically collinear. The paper examines, first, the issue of strong convergence of the learning recursion: It is argued that, under constant gain learning, the recursion does not converge in any probabilistic sense, while for decreasing gain learning rates are derived at which the recursion converges almost surely to the rational expectations equilibrium. Secondly, the paper establishes the strong consistency of the OLS estimators, under both constant and decreasing gain learning, as well as rates at which the estimators converge almost surely. In the constant gain model, separate estimators for the intercept and slope parameters are juxtaposed to the joint estimator, drawing on the recent literature on explosive autoregressive models. Thirdly, it is emphasised that strong consistency is obtained in all models although the near-optimal condition for the strong consistency of OLS in linear regression models with stochastic regressors, established by Lai & Wei (1982), is not always met.
In der deutschen Gesundheitspolitik wird seit langem unter dem Stichwort Bürgerversicherung über die Einbeziehung aller Bürger in das System der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung diskutiert. Dabei wird meistens die Perspektive der GKVVersicherten eingenommen, seltener diejenige der Versicherten der PKV. Es stellt sich jedoch insbesondere für die Gruppe der Beihilfeberechtigten die Frage, welche monetären Konsequenzen durch eine Bürgerversicherung für sie entstehen und in welcher Höhe daraus Kompensationszahlungen abgeleitet werden können. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen: Selbst, wenn diese Kompensationen weniger als die Hälfte der Differenz der Versicherungsleistungen zwischen PKV/Beihilfe und einer
Bürgerversicherung abdecken, hat der Business Case Bürgerversicherung für die Gebietskörperschaften zumindest kurzfristig negative fiskalischen Folgen.
Das Hamburger Beihilfemodell
(2017)
Zu Beginn ihrer Karriere verfügen Beamte über das Privileg zwischen einer Absicherung im System der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherungen (GKV) und den privaten Krankenversicherungen (PKV) wählen zu dürfen. Bislang entscheiden sich die meisten Beamten für letztere, auch weil sie in der GKV sowohl Arbeitnehmerals auch Arbeitgeberbeitrag zahlen müssten, in der PKV dagegen eine Kostenbeteiligung im Rahmen der Beihilfe vorgesehen ist. Die Stadt Hamburg hat nun jedoch beschlossen, zukünftig Arbeitgeberzuschüsse zur GKV zu leisten, um damit eine „echte Wahlfreiheit“ herzustellen. Wir zeigen anhand eines Vergleichs der internen Renditen in beiden Systemen, dass sich das Kalkül für den Durchschnittsbeamten trotz dieser gefeierten Reform kaum verändern wird. Vielmehr wird es wahrscheinlich zu einer verstärkten adversen Selektion von hohen Gesundheitsrisiken zu Lasten der GKV kommen.
This paper contrasts the individual capital gains realization behavior between progressive and proportional tax regimes. Using a longitudinal panel of over 288,000 individuals in Sweden, I exploit the 1991 tax reform in Sweden that changed progressive capital gains tax rates ranging from 12% to 80% to a proportional tax rate of 30%. Using the proportional tax system to control for non-tax reasons to realize capital gains, I show that individuals are highly responsive to capital gains tax incentives created by temporary income changes under a progressive capital gains tax. More specifically, I find that individuals with temporary negative (positive) income changes sell (hold) shares that they would hold (sell) in the absence of temporary tax incentives. Further, I show that high-income individuals are more tax sensitive than low-income individuals. This result indicates that low-income individuals facing temporary negative income changes could trade predominantly for non-tax reasons.
This paper examines the sensitivity of profit shifting to the corporate tax rate difference between a subsidiary and its parent company. We exploit tax rate variation stemming from European tax reforms over the period 2003-2013 while accounting for tax base adjustments that might affect firms’ profit shifting response to tax rate changes. We find that affiliates’ profits are sensitive to tax rate changes. However, tax base broadening reforms mitigate the tax rate incentives for profit shifting and significantly reduce the semi-elasticity of profits with respect to corporate tax rates. Finally, we provide evidence of a downward trend in the tax sensitivity of profit shifting, suggesting that the spread of anti-avoidance regulation may have successfully constrained profit-shifting strategies.
This study examines the relation between executives’ inside debt holdings and corporate tax risk. As executives’ inside debt holdings are unsecured and unfunded, they should align executives’ interests with those of outside debtholders and incentivize executives to act more conservatively toward risk. Hence, inside debt should also reduce the risk of tax avoidance activities. Consistent with this prediction, we find that executive inside debt holdings are negatively related to tax risk. Further, this relation becomes stronger at higher levels of tax risk. We also find that the relation between insider debt and tax risk is stronger for firms that are not facing liquidity constraints and among well-governed firms. The latter result implies that institutional ownership and inside debt compensation are substitutes in reducing tax risk. Overall, our results suggest that part of the observed cross-sectional difference in tax avoidance can be explained by a reduction in tax risk that is related to executive inside debt holdings.
This paper studies the effect of corporate taxes on investment. Since firms with a foreign parent have more cross-country profit shifting opportunities than domestically owned firms do, their effective tax rate and, consequently, their tax-induced costs to investment are lower. We therefore expect capital investment responses to a corporate tax cut to be heterogeneous across firms. Using firm-level data on German corporations, we exploit the 2008 tax reform, which substantially cut corporate taxes as an exogenous policy shock and expect domestically owned firms' investments to be more responsive to the reform. We show exactly this in a difference-in-differences setting. We find that the reduction in corporate tax payments led to a one-to-one increase in the real investments of domestic firms. The effect is stronger for domestic firms relying more on internal funds. Correspondingly, labor investment increased more for domestic firms, ensuring a constant mix of input factors. In addition, we show that domestic firms' sales grew faster after the tax cut than the sales of foreign-owned firms. Our results imply that corporate tax changes can increase corporate investment but that domestic firms benefit more than foreign-owned firms from a tax cut through higher investment responses resulting in greater sales growth.
Empirical evidence suggests that there is substantial cross-firm variation in the extent of tax avoidance. However, this variation is not well understood. This paper provides a theoretical background for testing, and thus explaining, cross-firm differences in tax avoidance. We develop a formal model with two agents to analyze the incentives that lead firms to engage in tax avoidance. The tax avoidance decision is a function of moral hazard, tax-planning costs, and the potential to increase earnings. If the potential to increase earnings is low, the tax-planning decision is determined by moral-hazard problems. In contrast, when this potential is high, the tax-planning decision is mainly driven by taxplanning costs, such as reputational and political costs. One implication of our model is that moral hazard can (partly) explain why some firms do not engage in tax avoidance: Severe problems of moral hazard make tax avoidance less likely. Our model can be applied to test dierences in tax avoidance between different types of firms.
The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is still an unresolved problem worldwide. The most visible effect of AMR, healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), imposes a substantial financial burden on the healthcare system through exacerbation or prolongation of illness and subsequent in-hospital treatment. The impact of the emergence and spread of AMR, however, is not limited to an increase in the number of HAIs. AMR also impacts patients who do not become infected. As in-hospital resistance patterns change over time, rationale weighting induces decision-makers to adjust their behaviour in order to provide the best possible treatment in a changing environment of resistance. In settings where resistant organisms are prevalent, for instance, physicians routinely change empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance to the relevant resistance indicator, leading to differences in costs, dosing schedules, and/or side-effect profiles.
The effects of such resistance-induced antibiotic substitution effects are highly relevant in intensive care units (ICUs) where treatment failure often has severe consequences. In ICU settings, first line antibiotic therapy is highly standardized and widely empiric. On the other hand, there is a limited number of reserve antibiotics, whose prices and/or side effects are substantially higher than first-line therapy. We hypothesize that a rise in resistance to first line agents increases demand for the respective reserve agents. In order to provide first estimates of these resistance-induced substitution effects, we conducted a panel data regression analysis on monthly antibiotic use and resistance data from 66 ICUs between 2001 and 2012.
We chose an estimation using unit-fixed effects and selected combinations of first line agents and their substituting reserve agent in accordance with an expert opinion-guided and pre-defined set of variables. The investigated reserve antibiotics (Carbapenems, Glycopeptides and Linezolid) represent a large part of all reserve antibiotics and on average 15% of all prescribed antibiotics.
The findings of the three core regressions support the hypothesis that demand for antibiotics significantly increases when lower level resistance rises. For some regressions the lagged effect of resistance is also significant, supporting the conjecture that part of the substitution effect is caused by physicians changing antibiotic choices in empiric treatment by adapting their resistance expectation to new information on resistance prevalence. In contrast, there is no lagged effect related to the occurrence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). This may be explained by the availability of rapid testing, which is increasingly used to immediately screen patients for MRSA, commonly resulting in definitive therapy being promptly available.
The results are robust to different specifications of the empirical model, and the findings imply that expectations play an important role in the demand for antibiotics. For policy makers, an important finding may be that the availability and accuracy of information about prevalence of pathogens and resistance rates can increase treatment optimality by allowing physicians to efficiently balance the trade-off of resistance and treatment success.
In search of alpha
(2015)
In this study we develop a trading strategy that exploits limited investor attention. Trading signals for US S&P 500 stocks stocks are derived from Google Search Volume data, taking a long position if investor attention for the corresponding security was abnormally low in the past week. Our strategy generates 19% average annual return and thereby outperforms a simple market buy-and-hold strategy. After controlling for the well-known risk factors, a significant alpha (abnormal return) of 10% p.a. remains. Returns are sufficiently large to cover transaction costs.
This study provides novel insights to the ongoing debate how market efficiency is challenged by investor behavior. Applying search engine data we find that retail investor attention can enhance market efficiency. High attention is associated with better incorporation of idiosyncratic stock information, which we interpret as improved pricing efficiency. This effect is even more pronounced in bullish markets. In bearish markets, however, retail investor attention leads to a deterioration of pricing efficiency, which might be explained with herding behavior. Our evidence holds for a broad sample of European and US stocks.
This paper examines pricing differences across recognized and disclosed fair values. We build on prior literature by examining two theoretical causes of such differences: lower reliability of the disclosed information, and/or investors’ higher related information processing costs. We examine European real estate firms reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which require that fair values for investment properties, our sample firms’ key operating asset, either be recognized on the balance sheet or disclosed in the footnotes. Consistent with prior research, we predict and find a lower association between equity prices and disclosed relative to recognized investment property fair values, reflecting a discount assigned to disclosed fair values. We then predict and find that this discount is mitigated by lower information processing costs (proxied via high analyst following), and some support that it is also mitigated by higher reliability (proxied via use of external appraisals). These latter results are documented using subsample analyses to test one attribute (either information processing costs or reliability) while holding the other constant. Overall, these findings are consistent with fair value reliability and information processing costs providing complementary explanations for observed pricing discounts assessed on disclosed accounting amounts.
The paper studies the effect of uncertainty in firm-speciffic tax avoidance on firm value. We first show in a clean surplus valuation model that expectations about future profitability interact with corporate tax avoidance. Two dimensions of corporate tax avoidance strategies matter for valuation: uncertainty and level of expected future tax rates. We confirm the importance of level and uncertainty of tax avoidance for forecasts of future tax rates using a small sample of analyst tax rate forecasts. Consistent with the model and the implications from analyst forecasts, we derive a tax signal-to-noise ratio based on historical tax information. In our sample of 2,820 firms, we show empirically that this tax signal-to-noise ratio amplifies the effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value. Pre-tax earnings have a stronger effect on firm value for firms with effective and persistent tax avoidance. Firms with volatile effective tax rates receive a discount on their earnings.
Does legality matter?
(2015)
Previous research argues that law expresses social values and could, therefore, influence individual behavior independently of enforcement and penalization. Using three laboratory experiments on tax avoidance and evasion, we study how legality affects individuals’ decisions. We find that, without any risk of negative financial consequences, the qualification of tax minimization as illegal versus legal reduces tax minimization considerably. Legislators can thus, in principle, affect subjects’ decisions by defining the borderline between legality and illegality. However, once we introduce potential negative financial consequences, legality does not affect tax minimization. Only if we use moral priming to increase subjects’ moral cost do we again find a legality effect on tax minimization. Overall, this demonstrates the limitations of the expressive function of law. Legality appears to be an important determinant of behavior only if we consider activities with no or low risk of negative financial consequences or if subjects are morally primed.
This paper empirically examines why tax avoidance differs across individuals. We use rich Swedish administrative panel data on all taxpayers, with a link between corporate and individual tax returns. Surprisingly, few individuals utilize legal and observable tax avoidance opportunities. Our results show that there are several frictions in tax avoidance participation. In addition to monetary benets from tax avoidance (incentives), the opportunity to participate in tax avoidance (access), as well as information and knowledge about these opportunities (awareness), are important factors for the individual's tax avoidance decision. We further show that information about tax avoidance opportunities spreads within informal networks.
We test whether dividend taxes affect corporate investments. We exploit Sweden’s 2006 dividend tax cut of 10 percentage points for closely held corporations and five percentage points for widely held corporations. Using rich administrative panel data and tripledifference estimators, we find that this dividend tax cut does not affect aggregate investment but that it affects the allocation of corporate investment. Cash-constrained firms increase investment after the dividend tax cut relative to cash-rich firms. Reallocation is stronger among closely held firms that experience a larger tax cut. This result is explained by higher external equity in cashconstrained firms and by higher dividends in cash-rich firms after the tax cut. The heterogeneous investment responses imply that the dividend tax cut raises efficiency by improving allocation of investment.
This paper analyzes whether a dividend tax cut for owner–managers of closely held corporations encourages income shifting, income generation, or both. We use rich Swedish administrative micro data from 2000 to 2011 comprising detailed firm- and individual-level information. We find robust evidence of extensive income shifting across tax bases in response to the 2006 Swedish dividend tax cut. Owner–managers of closely held corporations reclassify earned income as dividend income but do not increase total income. The response is more pronounced for owner–managers with tax incentives and with easier access to income shifting through a high ownership share.
Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich auf Basis von Routinedaten der AOK-Plus mit Pflegeverläufen von über 60-Jährigen in Deutschland. Unsere Analysen zeigen eine rechtsschiefe Verteilung der Pflegeverläufe für beide Ge-schlechter. Demnach sind 50 Prozent der weiblichen (männlichen) Pflegefälle nach 45 (26) Monaten verstorben, wohingegen die mittlere Verweildauer in der Pflege bei 51,4 (36,6) Monaten liegt. Die mit diesen Pflegverläufen verbundenen Gesamtkosten der Pflege summieren sich nach unseren Berechnungen im Mittel auf einen Barwert von 68.871 (45.233) Euro. Die Analyse der Pflegestufen mittels eines multinominalen logistischen Modells zeigt für die vorliegenden Daten zudem, dass im Beobachtungszeitraum eine Kompression der Pflegeverläufe stattge-funden hat. So wird eine höhere Pflegestufe und somit ein schwerwiegenderer Pflegeverlauf mit zunehmendem Abstand vom Tod sowie zunehmendem Alter für beide Geschlechter unwahrscheinlicher.
This study investigates why countries mandate accruals in the definition of corporate taxable income. Accruals alleviate timing and matching problems in cash flows, which smoothes taxable income and thus better aligns it with underlying economic performance. These accrual properties can be desirable in the tax setting as tax authorities seek more predictable corporate tax revenues. However, they can also make tax revenues procyclical by increasing the correlation between aggregate corporate tax revenues and aggregate economic activity. We argue that accruals shape the distribution of corporate tax revenues, which leads regulators to incorporate accruals into the definition of taxable income to balance the portfolio of government revenues and expenditures. Using a sample of 26 OECD countries, we find support for several theoretically motivated factors explaining the use of accruals in tax codes. We first provide evidence that corporate tax revenues are less volatile in high accrual countries, but high accrual countries collect relatively higher (lower) tax revenues when the corporate sector grows (contracts). Critically, we then show that accruals and smoother tax revenues are favored by countries with higher levels of government spending on public services and uncertain future expenditures, while countries with procyclical other tax collections favor cash rules and lower procyclicality of corporate tax revenues.
A growing body of literature investigates the interaction of changes in accounting standards with institutions such as investor protection laws and corporate governance mechanisms. We examine the unintended consequences of fair value accounting in determining mandated preferred dividends. We study the case of Russian energy conglomerate UES, which had a good corporate governance track record and a consistent dividend history. Following its adoption of fair value accounting, UES reported the highest quarterly profit in world corporate history, but it subsequently omitted dividends for all its shareholders. The case analysis suggests that the transitory nature of fair value adjustments and the interaction with the investment policy were important considerations in justifying the dividend omission. The reduction in preferred dividends was not offset by any capital gains, and led to a wealth transfer from preferred to ordinary shareholders. Thus, requiring the use of fair value accounting when determining the dividend distribution base can lead to unintended consequences, and increase agency costs for minority shareholders.
whether the moral evaluation of tax evasion is subject to a self-serving bias. We find that tax morale is egoistically biased: Subjects with the opportunity to evade taxes judge tax evasion as less unethical as opposed to those who cannot evade. The detection probability does not affect this result. Further, we do not find moral spillover effects, for example, on legal activities.
This paper studies the cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains realizations to labor income taxes when capital gains are taxed at a separate proportional tax rate. Using a longitudinal panel of over 265,000 individuals in Sweden, this paper shows in a regression kink design that labor income taxes affect capital gains at the extensive and intensive margins. An increase in the marginal labor income tax rate increases the likelihood of realizing capital gains and the amount of realized capital gains. One implication of this result is that the excess burden of labor income taxation is affected by cross-base tax elasticities.
This paper tests the effect of dividend taxation on employment. Since dividend taxation affects real investments, tax-induced changes in real investments should map into employment effects. Using a difference-in-difference approach around the Swedish 2006 dividend tax cut and unique corporate-level data with income tax information on every employee, we find robust evidence of dividend tax-induced employment effects. In response to the dividend cut, both employment and wage levels increase in cash-constrained firms relative to cash-rich closely held corporations.
This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signaling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For U.S. firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e., signaling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.
This paper analyzes heterogeneity in capital gains tax elasticities across individuals. Using panel data of over 260,000 individuals, I find that the sensitivity of capital gains to taxes is decreasing over the individual life cycle. Younger individuals respond more strongly to changes in capital gains taxes than older individuals. An increase in age of 18 years decreases the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes by approximately 10%.
We study the importance of owner wages and dividends as alternative payout channels in privately held firms. Using data on all Swedish closely held corporations and their owner–managers over the period 2000–2009, we find that dividends comprise one-fourth of total payout to owner–managers. Dividends are used as a flexible payout channel. Wages are the preferred payout channel and are rather sticky. Choice of payout channel and level of payout are affected by dividend and wage taxation. Consistent with the difference in flexibility across payout channels, shareholder taxes have a stronger impact on dividends than on wages.
Using a large international data set we analyze whether business cycle forecasters tend to herd or anti-herd. Applying different measures of economic crises, we distinguish between normal economic circumstances and times of crises. We fnd evidence for anti-herding behavior for most industrial economies, i.e. forecasters eliberately stick out their neck with extreme forecasts for strategic reasons. For a set of emerging market economies, by contrast, we find evidence for herding behavior. We relate this finding to the high incidence of economic and financial crises in these countries. A test for herding behavior during economic crises confirms that forecasters tend to herd in times of high forecast uncertainty.
Fair value and audit fees
(2012)
This paper investigates the effect of fair value reporting and its attributes on audit fees. We use as our primary sample the European real estate industry around mandatory IFRS adoption (under which reporting of property fair values becomes compulsory), due to its unique operating and reporting characteristics. We document lower audit fees for firms reporting property assets at fair value relative to those employing depreciated cost―a difference that appears driven (in part) by impairment tests that occur only under depreciated cost. We further find that audit fees are decreasing in firm’s exposure to fair value, and increasing both in the complexity of the fair value estimation and for recognition (versus only disclosure) of fair values. We corroborate our findings in two alternative settings: contrasting UK and US real estate firms; and using UK investment trusts. Overall, the results suggest that fair values can lead to lower monitoring costs; however, any reductions in audit fees will vary with salient characteristics of the fair value reporting, including the difficulty to measure and the treatment within the financial statements.
This paper develops a tractable model of third-degree price discrimination in airline markets that features two types of passengers with different time valuations, carriers in Cournot competition and a congested infrastructure. We find that price discrimination always leads to a loss of social welfare when, in the first stage, the congestion charge is chosen to maximize welfare by incorporating carriers’ behavior in the second stage. We also show that the welfare loss can be small if, in the process of choosing the optimal airport charges, carriers were treated as atomistic.
This paper analyzes a congested airport that provides aeronautical services to airlines and concessions to retailers and car rental companies. The sum of retail demands inside and outside the airport area is fixed, while an increase of the passenger quantity increases car rental demand. It is shown that an increase of the per passenger retail profit can reduce the private aeronautical charge and the private car rental charge. By contrast, the effect of car rentals on the private aeronautical charge is ambiguous. The welfare-optimal passenger number and aeronautical charge are both independent of retail profit.