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Let $\sigma_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity t for a strike $K = S_0 e^{x t}$, where $x \in R$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the underlying. We show that $\sigma_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity t tends to infinity, given by the formula \sigma_{\infty}(x) = \sqrt2 (h^*(x)^{1/2} + (h^*(x) − x)^{1/2}, for $x$ in some compact neighbourhood of zero in the class of affine stochastic volatility models. The function $h^*$ is the convex dual of the limiting cumulant generating function $h$ of the scaled log-spot process. We express $h$ in terms of the functional characteristics of the underlying model. The proof of the limiting formula rests on the large deviation behaviour of the scaled log-spot process as time tends to infinity. We apply our results to obtain the limiting smile for several classes of stochastic volatility models with jumps used in applications (e.g. Heston with state-independent jumps, Bates with state-dependent jumps and Barndorff-Nielsen-Shephard model).
We consider a general class of continuous asset price models where the drift and the volatility functions, as well as the driving Brownian motions, change at a random time. Under minimal assumptions on the random time and on the driving Brownian motions, we study the behavior of the model in all the filtrations which naturally arise in this setting, establishing martingale representation results and characterizing the validity of the NA1 and NFLVR no-arbitrage conditions.
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to explicit formulas for CDS spreads, while semi-analytical formulas are derived for other credit derivatives. Finally, we give an application to counterparty risk.
Cubature methods, a powerful alternative to Monte Carlo due to Kusuoka [Adv. Math. Econ. 6, 69–83, 2004] and Lyons–Victoir [Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A 460, 169–198, 2004], involve the solution to numerous auxiliary ordinary differential equations. With focus on the Ninomiya-Victoir algorithm [Appl. Math. Fin. 15, 107–121, 2008], which corresponds to a concrete level 5 cubature method, we study some parametric diffusion models motivated from financial applications, and exhibit structural conditions under which all involved ODEs can be solved explicitly and efficiently. We then enlarge the class of models for which this technique applies, by introducing a (model-dependent) variation of the Ninomiya-Victoir method. Our method remains easy to implement; numerical examples illustrate the savings in computation time.
Density expansions for hypoelliptic diffusions (X1^,...,X^d) are revisited. In particular, we are interested in density expansions of the projection (X^1_T,...,X^l_T) at time $T>0$, with $l \le d$. Global conditions are found which replace the well-known ”not-in-cutlocus” condition known from heat-kernel asymptotics; cf. G. Ben Arous (88). Our small noise expansion allows for a ”second order” exponential factor. Applications include tail and implied volatility asymptotics in some correlated stochastic volatility models; in particular, we solve a problem left open by A. Gulisashvili and E.M. Stein (2009).
A robust implementation of a Dupire type local volatility model is an important issue for every option trading floor. In the present note we provide new analytic insights into the asymptotic behavior of local volatility in the wings. We present a general approximation formula and specialize it to the Heston model, showing that local variance is linear in the wings. This further justifies the choice of certain local volatility parametrizations.
We solve Skorokhod's embedding problem for Brownian motion with linear drift $(W_t+ \kappa t)_{t\geq 0}$ by means of techniques of stochastic control theory. The search for a stopping time
$T$ such that the law of $W_T + \kappa T$ coincides with a prescribed law $\mu$ possessing the first
moment is based on solutions of backward stochastic differential equations of quadratic
type. This new approach generalizes an approach by Bass [Bas] of the classical version of
Skorokhod's embedding problem using martingale representation techniques.
We consider a dynamical system described by the differential equation $\dot{Y}_t = -U^'(Y_t)$
with a unique stable point at the origin. We perturb the system by L\'evy noise of
intensity $\varepsilon$, to obtain the stochastic differential equation $dX^\varepsilon_t = -U^'(X^\varepsilon_{t-})dt + \varepsilon dL_t}.
The process $L$ is a symmetric L\'evy process whose jump measure $\nu$ has exponentially
light tails, $\nu([u, \infty))\sim exp(-u^\alpha), \alpha > 0, u \to\infty$. We study the first exit problem for
the trajectories of the solutions of the stochastic differential equation from the interval
$[-1, 1]$. In the small noise limit $\varepsilon\to 0$ we determine the law and the mean value of the
first exit time, to discover an intriguing phase transition at the critical index $\alpha = 1$.
In this article we propose a novel approach to reduce the computational complexity
of the dual method for pricing American options. We consider a sequence of
martingales that converges to a given target martingale and decompose the original
dual representation into a sum of representations that correspond to dierent levels
of approximation to the target martingale. By next replacing in each representation
true conditional expectations with their Monte Carlo estimates, we arrive at what
one may call a multilevel dual Monte Carlo algorithm. The analysis of this algorithm
reveals that the computational complexity of getting the corresponding target upper
bound, due to the target martingale, can be signicantly reduced. In particular, it
turns out that using our new approach, we may construct a multilevel version of the
well-known nested Monte Carlo algorithm of Andersen and Broadie (2004) that is,
regarding complexity, virtually equivalent to a non-nested algorithm. The performance
of this multilevel algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.
In this paper, we study the dual representation for generalized multiple stopping problems,
hence the pricing problem of general multiple exercise options. We derive a dual representation which allows for cashflows which are subject to volume constraints modeled by
integer valued adapted processes and refraction periods modeled by stopping times. As
such, this extends the works by Schoenmakers (2010), Bender (2011a), Bender (2011b),
Aleksandrov and Hambly (2010), and Meinshausen and Hambly (2004) on multiple exercise
options, which either take into consideration a refraction period or volume constraints, but
not both simultaneously. We also allow more flexible cashflow structures than the additive
structure in the above references. For example some exponential utility problems are covered
by our setting. We supplement the theoretical results with an explicit Monte Carlo algorithm
for constructing confidence intervals for the price of multiple exercise options and exemplify
it by a numerical study on the pricing of a swing option in an electricity market.
Optimal dual martingales, their analysis and application to new algorithms for Bermudan products
(2012)
In this paper we introduce and study the concept of optimal and surely
optimal dual martingales in the context of dual valuation of Bermudan
options, and outline the development of new algorithms in this context.
We provide a characterization theorem, a theorem which gives conditions
for a martingale to be surely optimal, and a stability theorem concerning martingales which are near to be surely optimal in a sense. Guided
by these results we develop a framework of backward algorithms for constructing such a martingale. In turn this martingale may then be utilized
for computing an upper bound of the Bermudan product. The methodology is pure dual in the sense that it doesn’t require certain (input)
approximations to the Snell envelope.
In an Ito-Levy environment we outline a particular regression based
backward algorithm which allows for computing dual upper bounds without nested Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, as a by-product this algorithm also provides approximations to the continuation values of the
product, which in turn determine a stopping policy. Hence, we may obtain lower bounds at the same time.
In a first numerical study we demonstrate a backward dual regression algorithm in a Wiener environment that is easy to implement and
is regarding accuracy comparable with the method of Belomestny et. al.
(2009).
Primal-dual linear Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple stopping - An application to flexible caps
(2012)
In this paper we consider the valuation of Bermudan callable derivatives with
multiple exercise rights. We present in this context a new primal-dual linear
Monte Carlo algorithm that allows for ecient simulation of lower and upper price
bounds without using nested simulations (hence the terminology). The algorithm
is essentially an extension of a primal{dual Monte Carlo algorithm for standard
Bermudan options proposed in Schoenmakers et al. (2011), to the case of multiple
exercise rights. In particular, the algorithm constructs upwardly a system of dual
martingales to be plugged into the dual representation of Schoenmakers (2010).
At each level the respective martingale is constructed via a backward regression
procedure starting at the last exercise date. The thus constructed martingales are
nally used to compute an upper price bound. At the same time, the algorithm
also provides approximate continuation functions which may be used to construct
a price lower bound. The algorithm is applied to the pricing of
exible caps
in a Hull and White (1990) model setup. The simple model choice allows for
comparison of the computed price bounds with the exact price which is obtained
by means of a trinomial tree implementation. As a result, we obtain tight price
bounds for the considered application. Moreover, the algorithm is generically
designed for multi-dimensional problems and is tractable to implement.
We study minimal supersolutions of backward stochastic differential equations. We show the existence and uniqueness of the minimal supersolution, if the generator is jointly lower semicontinuous, bounded from below by an affine function of the control variable, and satisfies a specific normalization property. Semimartingale convergence is used to establish the main result.
We study a nonlinear operator defined via minimal supersolutions of backward stochastic differential equations with generators that are monotone in y, convex in z, jointly lower semicontinuous, and bounded below by an affine function of the control variable. We show existence, uniqueness, monotone convergence, Fatou’s Lemma and lower semicontinuity of this functional. We provide a comparison principle for the underlying minimal supersolutions of BSDEs, which we illustrate by maximizing expected exponential utility.
We provide results on the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamically incomplete financial markets in discrete time. Our framework allows for heterogeneous agents, unspanned random endowments and convex trading constraints. In the special case where all agents have preferences of the same type and all random endowments are replicable by trading in the financial market we show that a one-fund theorem holds and give an explicit expression for the equilibrium pricing kernel. If the underlying noise is generated by finitely many Bernoulli random walks, the equilibrium dynamics can be described by a system of coupled backward stochastic difference equations, which in the continuous-time limit becomes a multi-dimensional backward stochastic differential equation. If the market is complete in equilibrium, the system of equations decouples, but if not, one needs to keep track of the prices and continuation values of all agents to solve it. As an example we simulate option prices in the presence of stochastic volatility, demand pressure and short-selling constraints.
We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are spanned by the securities, an equilibrium exists and the agents’ optimal trading strategies are constant. Affine processes, and the theory of information-based asset pricing are used to model the endogenous asset price dynamics and the terminal payoff. The derived semi-explicit pricing formulae are applied to numerically analyze the impact of the agents’ risk aversion on the implied volatility of simultaneously-traded European-style options.
In the paradigm of VON N EUMANN AND M ORGENSTERN, a representation of affine pref-
erences in terms of an expected utility can be obtained under the assumption of weak continu-
ity. Since the weak topology is coarse, this requirement is a priori far from being negligible.
In this work, we replace the assumption of weak continuity by monotonicity. More precisely,
on the space of lotteries on an interval of the real line, it is shown that any affine preference
order which is monotone with respect to the first stochastic order admits a representation in
terms of an expected utility for some nondecreasing utility function. As a consequence, any
affine preference order on the subset of lotteries with compact support, which is monotone
with respect to the second stochastic order, can be represented in terms of an expected util-
ity for some nondecreasing concave utility function. We also provide such representations
for affine preference orders on the subset of those lotteries which fulfill some integrability
conditions. The subtleties of the weak topology are illustrated by some examples.
We consider backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgBSDE). We prove several statements concerning path regularity and stochastic smooth-
ness of the solution processes of the qgBSDE, in particular we prove an extension of Zhang's path regularity theorem to the quadratic growth setting. We give explicit convergence rates for the difference between the solution of a qgBSDE and its truncation, filling an important gap in numerics for qgBSDE. We give an alternative proof of second order Malliavin differentiability for BSDE with drivers that are Lipschitz continuous (and differentiable), and
then derive the same result for qgBSDE.
We consider the problem of numerical approximation for forward-backward stochastic
differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgFBSDE). To illustrate the significance
of qgFBSDE, we discuss a problem of cross hedging of an insurance related financial
derivative using correlated assets. For the convergence of numerical approximation schemes for
such systems of stochastic equations, path regularity of the solution processes is instrumental.
We present a method based on the truncation of the driver, and explicitly exhibit error estimates
as functions of the truncation height. We discuss a reduction method to FBSDE with globally
Lipschitz continuous drivers, by using the Cole-Hopf exponential transformation. We finally
illustrate our numerical approximation methods by giving simulations for prices and optimal
hedges of simple insurance derivatives.
The LIBOR market model is very popular for pricing inter-
est rate derivatives, but is known to have several pitfalls. In addition, if
the model is driven by a jump process, then the complexity of the drift
term is growing exponentially fast (as a function of the tenor length). In
this work, we consider a Levy-driven LIBOR model and aim at developing accurate and efficient log-Levy approximations for the dynamics of
the rates. The approximations are based on truncation of the drift term
and Picard approximation of suitable processes. Numerical experiments
for FRAs, caps and swaptions show that the approximations perform
very well. In addition, we also consider the log-Levy approximation of
annuities, which offers good approximations for high volatility regimes.
Optimal dual martingales, their analysis and application to new algorithms for Bermudan products
(2012)
In this paper we introduce and study the concept of optimal and surely
optimal dual martingales in the context of dual valuation of Bermudan
options, and outline the development of new algorithms in this context.
We provide a characterization theorem, a theorem which gives conditions
for a martingale to be surely optimal, and a stability theorem concerning martingales which are near to be surely optimal in a sense. Guided
by these results we develop a framework of backward algorithms for constructing such a martingale. In turn this martingale may then be utilized
for computing an upper bound of the Bermudan product. The methodology is pure dual in the sense that it doesn't require certain (input)
approximations to the Snell envelope.
In an Ito-Levy environment we outline a particular regression based
backward algorithm which allows for computing dual upper bounds with-
out nested Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, as a by-product this algorithm also provides approximations to the continuation values of the
product, which in turn determine a stopping policy. Hence, we may obtain lower bounds at the same time.
In a first numerical study we demonstrate a backward dual regression algorithm in a Wiener environment that is easy to implement and
is regarding accuracy comparable with the method of Belomestny et. al.
(2009).
With an emphasis on generators with quadratic growth in the control variable we consider
measure solutions of BSDE, a solution concept corresponding to the notion of risk neutral
measure in mathematical finance. In terms of measure solutions, solving a BSDE reduces
to martingale representation with respect to an underlying filtration. Measure solutions
related to measures equivalent to the historical one provide classical solutions. We derive
the existence of measure solutions in scenarios in which the generating functions are just
continuous, of at most linear growth in the control variable (corresponding to generators of
at most quadratic growth in the usual sense), and with a random bound in the time parameter
whose stochastic integral is a BMO martingale. Our main tools include a stability property
of sequences of measure solutions, for which a limiting solution is obtained by means of the
weak convergence of measures.
A robust implementation of a Dupire type local volatility model is an important issue for every option trading floor. Typically, this (inverse) problem is solved in a two step procedure : (i) a smooth parametrization of the implied volatility surface; (ii) computation of the local volatility based on the resulting call price surface. Point (i), and in particular how to extrapolate the implied volatility in extreme strike regimes not seen in the market, has been the subject of numerous articles, starting with Lee (Math. Finance, 2004). In the present paper we give direct analytic insights into the asymptotic behavior of local volatility at extreme strikes.
Convergence of Heston to SVI
(2011)
In this short note, we prove by an appropriate change of variables that the SVI implied volatility parameterization presented in~\cite{Gatheral} and the large-time asymptotic of the Heston implied volatility derived in~\cite{FJM} agree algebraically, thus confirming a conjecture from~\cite{Gatheral} as well as providing a simpler expression for the asymptotic implied volatility in the Heston model. We show how this result can help in interpreting SVI parameters.
We derive a full asymptotic expansion for call option prices and a third order approximation for implied volatility in the large-time, large log-moneyness regime for a general exponential Levy model, by extending the saddlepoint argument used in Forde,Jacquier & Mijatovic for the Heston model. As for the Heston model, there are two special log-moneyness values where the call option asymptotics are qualitatively different, and we use an Edgeworth expansion to deal with these cases. We also characterise the behaviour of the implied volatility skew at large-maturities; in particular we show that the derivative of the dimensionless implied variance with respect to log-moneyness exists and is less than or equal to 4 in the large-maturity limit, which is consistent with the bound on the right and left-side derivative given in Rogers&Tehranchi.
We characterise the asymptotic smile and term structure of implied volatility in the Heston model at small maturities and all strikes. Using saddlepoint methods we derive a small-maturity expansion formula for call option prices, which we then transform into a closed-form expansion (including the leading-order and correction terms) for implied volatility. This refined expansion reveals the relationship between the small-expiry smile and all Heston parameters (including the pair in the volatility drift coefficient), sharpening the leading-order result of~\cite{FJ09I} which found the relationship between the zero-expiry smile and the diffusion coefficients. We solve for in/out-of-the-money and at-the-money cases; in the latter case our proof involves subleading-order saddlepoint approximation along a suitable path of integration.
Using Freidlin-Wentzell sample path large deviations theory, we characterise the small-time behaviour of probabilities of a process following an uncorrelated local-stochastic volatility model.
As a corollary, we determine the small-maturity behaviour of the implied volatility under this class of processes.
This note studies an issue relating to essential smoothness that can arise when the theory of large deviations is applied to a certain option pricing formula in the Heston model. The note identifies a gap, based on this issue, in the proof of Corollary 2.4 in [2] and describes how to circumvent it. This completes the proof of Corollary 2.4 in [2] and hence of the main result in [2], which describes the limiting behaviour of the implied volatility smile in the Heston model far from maturity.
To address the plurality of interpretations of the subjective notion of risk, we describe it by means of a risk order and concentrate on the context invariant features of diversification and monotonicity. Our main results are uniquely characterized robust representations of lower semicontinuous risk orders on vector spaces and convex sets. This representation covers most instruments related to risk and allow for a differentiated interpretation depending on the underlying context which is illustrated in different settings: For random variables, risk perception can be interpreted as model risk, and we compute among others the robust representation of the economic index of riskiness. For lotteries, risk perception can be viewed as distributional risk and we study the "Value at Risk". For consumption patterns, which excerpt an intertemporality dimension in risk perception, we provide an interpretation in terms of discounting risk and discuss some examples.
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalized probability measures on the optional $\sigma$-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular we show how ``bubbles'' may appear in the dynamic penalization, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure.
Dynamic risk measures
(2010)
This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty functions, and by supermartingale properties of risk processes and penalty functions.
The classical valuation of an uncertain cash flow in discrete time consists in taking the expectation of the sum of the discounted future payoffs under a fixed probability measure, which is assumed to be known. Here we discuss the valuation problem in the context of Knightian uncertainty. Using results from the theory of convex risk measures, but without assuming the existence of a global reference measure, we derive a robust representation of concave valuations with an infinite time horizon, which specifies the interplay between model uncertainty and uncertainty about the time value of money.
Recently, there is a growing trend to offer guarantee products where the investor is allowed to shift her account/investment value between multiple funds. The switching right is granted a finite number per year, i.e. it is American style with multiple exercise possibilities. In consequence, the pricing and the risk management is based on the switching strategy which maximizes the value of the guarantee put option. We analyze the optimal stopping problem in the case of one switching right within different model classes and compare the exact price with the lower price bound implied by the optimal deterministic switching time. We show that, within the class of log-price processes with independent increments, the stopping problem is solved by a deterministic stopping time if (and only if) the price process is in addition continuous. Thus, in a sense, the Black & Scholes model is the only (meaningful) pricing model where the lower price bound gives the exact price. It turns out that even moderate deviations from the Black & Scholes model assumptions give a lower price bound which is really below the exact price. This is illustrated by means of a stylized stochastic volatility model setup.
In this paper we consider the optimal stopping problem for general dynamic monetary utility functionals. Sufficient conditions for the Bellman principle and the existence of optimal stopping times are provided. Particular attention is payed to representations which allow for a numerical treatment in real situations. To this aim, generalizations of standard evaluation methods like policy iteration, dual and consumption based approaches are developed in the context of general dynamic monetary utility functionals. As a result, it turns out that the possibility of a particular generalization depends on specific properties of the utility functional under consideration.
We consider simple models of financial markets with less and better
informed investors described by a smaller and a larger filtration on a
general stochastic basis that describes the market dynamics, including
continuous and jump components. We study the relation between different forms of non existance of arbitrage and the characteristics of the stochastic basis under the different filtrations. This is achieved through the analysis of the properties of the numéraire portfolio. Furthermore, we focus on the problem of calculating the additional logarithmic utility of the better informed investor in terms of the Shannon antropy of is additional information. The information drift, i.e. the drift to eliminate in order to preserved the martingale property in the larger filtration terms out to be the crucial quantity needed to tackle these problems. We show that the expected
ed logarithmic utility increment due to better information equals its Shannon
entropy also in case of a pure jump basis with jumps that are quadratically
hedgeable, and so extend a similar result known for bases consisting of
continuous semimartingales. An example illustrates that the equality may
not persist if both continuous and jump components are present in the
underlying.
In this paper we consider the first exit problem of an overdamped
Lévy driven particle in a confining potential. We survey results
obtained in recent years from our work on the Kramers' times for
dynamical systems of this type with Lévy perturbations containing
heavy, and exponentially light jumps, and compare them to the well
known case of dynamical systems with Gaussian perturbations. It
turns out that exits induced by Lévy processes with jumps are
always essentially faster than Gaussian exits.
In this paper we study BSDEs arising from a special class of backward stochastic partial differential equations (BSPDEs) that is intimately related to utility maximization problems with respect to arbitrary utility functions. After providing existence and uniqueness we discuss the numerical realizability. Then we study utility maximization problems on incomplete financial markets whose dynamics are governed by continuous semimartingales. Adapting standard methods that solve the utility maximization problem using BSDEs, we give solutions for the portfolio optimization problem which involve the delivery of a liability at maturity. We illustrate our study by numerical simulations for selected examples. As a byproduct we prove existence of a solution to a very particular quadratic growth BSDE with unbounded terminal condition. This complements results on this topic obtained in [6,7,8].
We prove central and non-central limit theorems for the
Hermite variations of the anisotropic fractional Brownian sheet
$W^{\alpha, \beta}$
with Hurst parameter $(\alpha, \beta) \in (0,1)2$. When $0<\alpha \leq
1-\frac{1}{2q}$ or $0<\beta \leq 1-\frac{1}{2q}$ a central limit theorem
holds for the renormalized Hermite variations of order $q\geq 2$, while
for $1-\frac{1}{2q}<\alpha, \beta < 1$ we prove that these variations
satisfy a non-central limit theorem. In fact, they converge to a random
variable which is the value of a two-parameter Hermite process at time
$(1,1)$.
The weak Stratonovich integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter 1/6
(2010)
Let $B$ be a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter
$H=1/6$. It is known that the symmetric Stratonovich-style Riemann sums
for $\int g(B(s))\,dB(s)$ do not, in general, converge in probability.
We show, however, that they do converge in law in the Skorohod space of
c\`adl\`ag functions. Moreover, we show that the resulting stochastic
integral satisfies a change of variable formula with a correction term
that is an ordinary It\^o integral with respect to a Brownian motion
that is independent of $B$.
In this Note we consider a Lipschitz backward stochastic
differential equation (BSDE) driven by a continuous martingale $M$. We
prove (in Theorem \ref{theorem:main}) that if $M$ is a strong Markov
process and if the BSDE has regular data then the unique solution
$(Y,Z,N)$ of the BSDE is reduced to $(Y,Z)$, \textit{i.e.} the
orthogonal martingale $N$ is equal to zero, showing that in a Markovian
setting the "usual" solution $(Y,Z)$ (of a BSDE with regular data) has
not to be completed by a strongly orthogonal component even if $M$ does
not enjoy the martingale representation property.
We extend some recent works by Delong and Imkeller concerning Backward
stochastic differential equations with time delayed generators (delay
BSDE). We provide sharper a priori estimates and show that the solution
of a delay BSDE is in $L^p$. We introduce decoupled systems of SDE and
delay BSDE (which we term delay FBSDE) and give sufficient conditions
for the variational differentiability of their solutions. We connect
these derivatives to the Malliavin derivatives of such delay FBSDE via
the usual representation formulas which in turn give access to several
path regularity results. In particular we prove an extension of the
$L2$-path regularity result for delay FBSDE.
Under market frictions like illiquidity or transaction costs, contingent claims
can incorporate some inevitable intrinsic risk that cannot be completely hedged
away but remains with the holder. In general, they cannot be synthesized by
dynamical trading in liquid assets and hence not be priced by no-arbitrage arguments alone. Still, an agent can determine a valuation with respect to her
preferences towards risk. The utility indifference value for a variation in the
quantity of illiquid assets held by the agent is defined as the compensating variation
of wealth, under which her maximal expected utility remains unchanged.
Arrow Debreu Prices
(2010)
Arrow Debreu prices are the prices of ‘atomic’ time and state contingent
claims which deliver one unit of a specific consumption good if a specific uncertain
state realizes at a specific future date. For instance, claims on the good
‘ice cream tomorrow’ are split into different commodities depending whether the
weather will be good or bad, so that good-weather and bad-weather ice cream
tomorrow can be traded separately. Such claims were introduced by K.J. Arrow
and G. Debreu in their work on general equilibrium theory under uncertainty,
to allow agents to exchange state and time contingent claims on goods. Thereby
the general equilibrium problem with uncertainly can be reduced to a conventional
one without uncertainty. In finite state financial models, Arrow-Debreu
securities delivering one unit of the numeraire good can be viewed as natural
atomic building blocks for all other state-time contingent financial claims; their
prices determine a unique arbitrage-free price system.
We present and compare two different approaches to conditional
risk measures. One approach draws from vector space based convex analysis
and presents risk measures as functions on L^p spaces while the other approach
utilizes module based convex analysis where conditional risk measures are defined on L^p type modules. Both approaches utilize general duality theory for
vector valued convex functions in contrast to the current literature in which
we fi nd ad hoc dual representations. By presenting several applications such
as monotone and sub(cash) invariant hulls with corresponding examples we
illustrate that module based convex analysis is well suited to the concept of
conditional risk measures.
When managing energy or weather related risk often only imperfect hedging instruments are available. In the first part we illustrate problems arising with imperfect hedging by studying a toy model. We consider an airline’s problem with covering income risk due to fluctuating kerosene prices by investing into futures written on heating oil with closely correlated price dynamics. In the second part we outline recent results on exponential utility based cross hedging concepts. They highlight in a generalization of the Black-Scholes delta hedge formula to incomplete markets. Its derivation is based on a purely stochastic approach of utility maximization. It interprets stochastic control problems in the BSDE language, and profits from the power of the stochastic calculus of variations.
We consider backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgBSDE). We prove several statements concerning path regularity and stochastic smoothness of the solution processes of the qgBSDE, in particular we prove an extension of Zhang's path regularity theorem to the quadratic growth setting. We give explicit convergence rates for the difference between the solution of a qgBSDE and its truncation, filling an important gap in numerics for qgBSDE. We give an alternative proof of second order Malliavin differentiability for BSDE with drivers that are Lipschitz continuous (and differentiable), and then derive the same result for qgBSDE.
We consider backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with nonlinear generators typically of quadratic growth in the control variable. A measure solution of such a BSDE will be understood as a probability measure under which the generator is seen as vanishing, so that the classical solution can be reconstructed by a combination of the operations of conditioning and using martingale representations. In case the terminal condition ist bounded and the generator fulfills the usual continuity and boundedness conditions, we show the measure solutions with equivalent measures just reinterpret classical ones. In case of terminal conditions that have only exponentially bounded moments, we discuss a series of examples which show that in cas of non-uniqueness classical solutions that fail to be measure solutions can coexists with different measure solution.
We solve Skorokhod's embedding problem for Brownian mostion with linear drift $(W_t + \kappa t)_{t\ge 0}$ by means of techniques of stochastic control theory. The search for a stopping time $T$ such that the law of $W_T + \kappa T$ coincides with a prescribed law $\mu$ processing the first moment is based on solutions of backward stochastic differential equations of quadratic type. Theis new approach generalizes an approach by Bass [BAS] of the classical version of Skorokhod's embedding problem using martingale representation techniques.
Financial markets with asymmetric information: information drift, additional utility and entropy
(2009)
We review a general mathematical link between utility and information theory appearing in a simple financial market model with two kinds of small investors: insiders, whose extra information is stored in an enlargement of the less informed agents' filtration. The insider's expected logarithmic utility increment is described in terms of the information drift, i.e. the drift one has to eliminate in order to perceive the price dynamics as a martingale from his perspective. We describe the information drift in a very general setting by natural quantities expressing the conditional laws of the better informed view of the world. This on th other hand allows to identify the additional utility by entropy related quantities known from information theory.
We deal with backward stochastic differential equations with time delayed generators. In this new type of equations, a generator at time t can depend on the values of a solution in the past, weighted with a time delay function for instance of the moving average type. We prove existence and uniqueness of a solution for a sufficiently small time horizon or for a sufficiently small Lipschitz constant of a generator. We give examples of BSDE with time delayed generators that have multiple solutions or that have no solutions. We show for some special class of generators that existence and uniqueness may still hold for an arbitrary time horizon and for arbitrary Lipschitz constant. This class includes linear time delayed generators, which we study in more detail. We are concerned with different properties of a solution of a BSDE with time delayed generator, including the inheritance of boundedness from the terminal condition, the comparison principle, the existence of a measure solution and the BMO martingale property. We give examples in which they may fail.
In this paper we consider a class of BSDE with drivers of quadratic growth, on a stochastic basis generated by continuous local martingales. We first derive the Markov property of a forward-backward system (FBSDE) if the generating martingale is a strong Markov process. Then we establish the differentiability of a FBSDE with respect to the initial value of its forward component. This enables us to obtain the main result of this article which from the perspective of a utility optimization interpretation of the underlying control problem on a financial market takes the following form. The control process of the BSDE steers the system into a random liability depending on a market external uncertainty and this way describes the optimal derivative hedge of the liability by investment in a capital market the dynamics of which is described by the forward component. This delta hedge is described in a key formula in terms of a derivative functional of the solution process and the correlation structure of the internal uncertainty captured by the forward process and the external uncertainty responsible for the market incompleteness. The formula largely extends the scope of validity of the results obtained by several authors in the Brownian setting, designed to give a genuinely stochastic representation of the optimal delta hedge in the context of cross hedging insurance derivatives generalizing the derivative hedge in the Black-Scholes model. Of course, Malliavin’s calculus needed in the Brownian setting is not available in the general local martingale framework. We replace it by new tools based on stochastic calculus techniques.
We investigate solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with time delayed generators driven by Brownian motions and Poisson random measures that constitute the two components of a Lévy process. In this new type of equations, the generator can depend on the past values of a solution, by feeding them back into the dynamics with a time lag. For such time delayed BSDE, we prove existence and uniqueness of solutions provided we restrict on a sufficiently small time horizon or the generator possesses a sufficiently small Lipschitz constant. We study differentiability in the variational or Malliavin sense and derive equations that are satisfied by the Malliavin gradient processes. On the chosen stochastic basis this addresses smoothness both with respect to the continuous part of our Lévy process in terms of the classical Malliavin derivative for Hilbert space valued random variables, as well as with respect to the pure jump component for which it takes the form of an increment quotient operator related to the Picard difference operator.
Good-deal bounds have been introduced as a way to obtain valuation bounds
for derivative assets which are tighter than the arbitrage bounds. This is achieved by ruling out not only those prices that violate no-arbitrage restrictions but also
trading opportunities that are `too good'.
We study dynamic good-deal valuation bounds that are derived from bounds on optimal
expected growth rates. This leads naturally to restrictions on the set of pricing measure which are local in time, thereby inducing good dynamic properties for the good-deal valuation bounds.
We study good-deal bounds by duality arguments in a general semimartingale setting.
In a Wiener space setting where asset prices evolve as It\^o-processes,
good-deal bounds are then conveniently described by backward SDEs.
We show how the good-deal bounds arise as the value function for an
optimal control problem, where a dynamic coherent a priori risk measure is minimized by the choice of a suitable hedging strategy.
This demonstrates how the theory of no-good-deal valuations can be associated to an established concept of dynamic hedging in continuous time.
We develop a generic method for constructing a weak static minimum
variance hedge for a wide range of derivatives that may involve optimal exercise features or contingent cash flow streams, to provide a hedge along a
sequence of future hedging dates. The optimal hedge is constructed using
a portfolio of preselected hedge instruments which could be derivatives
with different maturities. The hedge portfolio is weakly static in that
it is initiated at time zero, does not involve intermediate re-balancing,
but hedges may be gradually unwound over time. We study the static
hedging of a convertible bond to demonstrate the method by an example
that involves equity and credit risk. We investigate the robustness of the
hedge performance with respect to parameter and model risk by numerical
experiments.
In a recent paper, Alfonsi, Schied and Schulz (ASS) propose a simple order book based model for the impact of large orders on stock prices. They use this model to derive optimal strategies for the execution of large orders. We test this model in the context of an agent based microscopic stochastic order book model that was recently proposed by Bovier, \v{C}ern\'{y} and Hryniv. While the ASS model captures some features of real markets, some assumptions in the model contradict our simulation results. In particular, from our simulations the recovery speed of the market after a large order is clearly depended on the order size, whereas the ASS model assumes the speed to be given by a constant. For this reason, we propose a generalisation of the model of ASS that incorporates this dependency, and derive the optimal investment strategies. We show that within our artificial market, correct fitting of this parameter leads to optimal hedging strategies that reduce the trading costs, compared to the ones produced by ASS. Finally, we show that the costs of applying the optimal strategies of the improved ASS model to the artificial market still differ significantly from the model predictions, indicating that even the improved model does not capture all of the relevant details of a real market.
We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market. It consists of three particles that represent the stock's current price and the buyers', respectively sellers', opinion about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respect to the current price. The speed of updating is controled by a parameter gamma; the price process is described by a geometric Brownian motion. We consider the market's stability in terms of the distance between the buyers' and sellers' opinion, and prove that the distance process is recurrent/transient in dependence on gamma.
We consider insurance derivatives depending on an external physical risk process, for example a temperature in a low dimensional climate model. We assume that this process is correlated with a tradable financial asset. We derive optimal strategies for exponential utility from terminal wealth, determine the indifference prices of the derivatives, and interpret them in terms of diversification pressure. Moreover we check the optimal investment strategies for standard admissibility criteria. Finally we compare the static risk connected with an insurance derivative to the reduced risk due to a dynamic investment into the correlated asset. We show that dynamic hedging reduces the risk aversion in terms of entropic risk measures by a factor related to the correlation.
We compute the length of geodesics on a Riemannian manifold by regular polynomial interpolation of the global solution of the eikonal equation related to the line element $ds^2=g_ijdx^idx^j$ of the manifold. Our algorithm approximates the length functional in arbitrarily strong Sobolev norms. Error estimates are obtained where the geometric information is used. It is pointed out how the algorithm can be used to get accurate approximations of solutions of linear parabolic partial differential equations leading to obvious applications in finance, physics and other sciences.
We derive global analytic representations of fundamental solutions for a class of linear parabolic systems with full coupling of first order derivative terms where coefficients may depend on space and time. Pointwise convergence of the global analytic expansion is proved. This leads to analytic representations of solutions of initial-boundary problems of first and second type in terms of convolution integrals or convolution integrals and linear integral equations. The results have both analytical and numerical impact. Analytically, our representations of fundamental solutions of coupled parabolic systems may be used to define generalized stochastic processes. Moreover, some classical analytical results based on a priori estimates of elliptic equations are a simple corollary of our main result. Numerically, accurate, stable and efficient schemes for computation and error estimates in strong norms can be obtained for a considerable class of Cauchy- and initial-boundary problems of parabolic type. Furthermore, there are obvious and less obvious applications to finance and physics.
We present two approximation methods for pricing of CMS spread options in Libor market models. Both approaches are based on approximating the underlying swap rates with lognormal processes under suitable measures. The first method is derived straightforwardly from the Libor market model. The second one uses a convexity adjustment technique under a linear swap model assumption. A numerical study demonstrates that both methods provide satisfactory approximations of spread option prices and can be used for calibration of a Libor market model to the CMS spread option market.
The Real Multiple Dual
(2009)
In this paper we present a dual representation for the multiple stopping
problem, hence multiple exercise options. As such it is a natural generalization of the
method in Rogers (2002) and Haugh and Kogan (2004) for the standard stopping
problem for American options. We consider this representation as the real dual as it is
solely expressed in terms of an infimum over martingales rather than an infimum over
martingales and stopping times as in Meinshausen and Hambly (2004). For the multiple
dual representation we present three Monte Carlo simulation algorithms which require
only one degree of nesting.
In a rather general setting of multivariate stochastic volatility market models we derive global iterative probabilistic schemes for computing the free boundary and its Greeks for a generic class of American derivative models using front-fixing methods. Establishment of convergence is closely linked to a proof of global regularity of the free boundary surface.
We consider Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with generators that grow quadratically in the control variable. In a more abstract setting, we first allow both the terminal condition and the generator to depend on a vector parameter x. We give sufficient conditions for the solution pair of the BSDE to be differentiable in x. These results can be applied to systems of forward-backward SDE. If the terminal condition of the BSDE is given by a sufficiently smooth function of the terminal value of a forward SDE, then its solution pair is differentiable with respect tot the initial vector of the forward equation. Finally we prove sufficient conditions for solutions of quadratic BSDEs to be differentiable in the variational sense (Malliavin differentiable).
This paper is concerned with the study of insurance related derivatives on financial markets that are based on non-tradable underlyings, but are correlated with tradable assets. We calculate exponential utility-based indifference prices, and corresponding derivative hedges. We use the fact that they can be represented in terms of solutions of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) with quadratic growth generators. We derive the Markov property of such FBSDE and generalize results on the differentiability relative to the initial value of their forward components. In this case the optimal hedge can be represented by the price gradient multiplied with the correlation coefficient. This way we obtain a generalization of the classical ‘delta hedge’ in complete markets.
The extent to which catastrophic weather events occur strongly depends on global climate conditions such as average sea surface temperatures (SST) or sea level pressures. Some of the factors can be predicted up to a year in advance, and should therefore be taken into account in any reasonable management of weather related risk. In this paper we first set up a risk model that integrates climate factors. The we show how variance minimizing hedging strategies explicitly depend on the factors' prediction. Our analysis is based on a detailed study of the predictable representation property on the combined Poisson and Wiener spaces. Using tools of the stochastic calculus of variations we derive a representation formula of the Clark-Ocone type. Finally, we exemplify the theory developed in a case study of US hurricane risk. We derive hedging strategies taking into account that US hurricane activity strongly depends on the SST of the Pacific Ocean.
In this paper we carry over the concept of reverse probabilistic representa-
tions developed in Milstein, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny (2004) for diffusion pro-
cesses, to discrete time Markov chains. We outline the construction of reverse
chains in several situations and apply this to processes which are connected
with jump-diffusion models and finite state Markov chains. By combining
forward and reverse representations we then construct transition density esti-
mators for chains which have root-N accuracy in any dimension and consider
some applications.
We present a generic non-nested Monte Carlo procedure for computing true upper bounds for Bermudan products, given an approximation of the Snell envelope. The pleonastic ``true'' stresses that, by construction, the estimator is biased above the Snell envelope. The key idea is a regression estimator for the Doob martingale part of the approximative Snell envelope, which preserves the martingale property. The so constructed martingale may be employed for computing dual upper bounds without nested simulation. In general, this martingale can also be used as a control variate for simulation of conditional expectations. In this context, we develop a variance reduced version of the nested primal-dual estimator (Anderson & Broadie (2004)) and nested consumption based (Belomestny & Milstein (2006)) methods . Numerical experiments indicate the efficiency of the non-nested Monte Carlo algorithm and the variance reduced nested one.
In this paper we propose a Libor model with a high-dimensional specially structured system of
driving CIR volatility processes. A stable calibration procedure which takes into account
a given local correlation structure is presented. The calibration algorithm is FFT based, so fast and easy
to implement.
We consider regular polynomial interpolation algorithms on recursively defined sets of interpolation points which approximate global solutions of arbitrary well-posed systems of linear partial differential equations. Convergence of the "limit" of the recursively constructed family of polynomials to the solution and error estimates are obtained from a priori estimates for some standard classes of linear partial differential equations, i.e. elliptic and hyperbolic equations. Another variation of the algorithm allows to construct polynomial interpolations which preserve systems of linear partial differential equations at the interpolation points. We show how this can be applied in order to compute higher order terms of WKB-approximations of fundamental solutions of a large class of linear parabolic equations. The error estimates are sensitive to the regularity of the solution. Our method is compatible with recent developments for solution of higher dimensional partial differential equations, i.e. (adaptive) sparse grids, and weighted Monte-Carlo, and has obvious applications to mathematical finance and physics.
In this paper we introduce efficient Monte Carlo estimators for the valuation
of high-dimensional derivatives and their sensitivities (”Greeks”).
These estimators are based on an analytical, usually approximative representation
of the underlying density. We study approximative densities
obtained by the WKB method. The results are applied in the context of
a Libor market model.
We present globally convergent multigrid methods for the nonsymmetric
obstacle problems as arising from the discretization of Black–Scholes models of
American options with local volatilities and discrete data. No tuning or regularization
parameters occur. Our approach relies on symmetrization by transformation
and data recovery by superconvergence.
In this paper we lay the foundation for a numerical algorithm to
simulate high-dimensional coupled FBSDEs under weak coupling or
monotonicity conditions. In particular we prove convergence of a
time discretization and a Markovian iteration. The iteration
differs from standard Picard iterations for FBSDEs in that the
dimension of the underlying Markovian process does not increase
with the number of iterations. This feature seems to be
indispensable for an efficient iterative scheme from a numerical
point of view. We finally suggest a fully explicit numerical
algorithm and present some numerical examples with up to
10-dimensional state space.
We show that pricing a big class of relevant options by hedging
and no-arbitrage can be extended beyond semimartingale models. To
this end we construct a subclass of self-financing portfolios that
contains hedges for these options, but does not contain arbitrage
opportunities, even if the stock price process is a
non-semimartingale of some special type.
Moreover, we show that the option prices depend
essentially only on a path property of the stock price process,
viz. on the quadratic variation. As a consequence, we can
incorporate many stylized facts to a pricing model without
changing the option prices.
We study a two-species interacting particle model on a subset of $\Z$
with open boundaries. The two species are injected with time
dependent rate on the left, resp.~right boundary.
Particles of different species annihilate when
they try to occupy the same site. This model has been proposed as a
simple model for the dynamics of an ``order book'' on a stock
market. We consider the hydrodynamic scaling limit for the empirical
process and prove a large deviation principle that implies
convergence to the solution of a non-linear parabolic equation.
Short term climate events such as the sea surface temperature anomaly known as El Nino are financial risk sources leading to incomplete markets. To make such risk tradable, we use a market model in which a climate index provides an extra investment opinion. Given one possible market price of risk each agent can maximize the exponential utility from three sources of income: capital market, additional security, and individual risk exposure. Under an equilibrium condition the market price of risk is uniquely determined by a backward stochastic differential equation. We translate these stochastic equations into semi-linear partial differential equations for the simulation of which numerical schemes are available. We choose two simple models for sea surface temperature, and with ENSO risk exposed fisher and farmer and a nonh-exposed bank three toy agents. By simulating their optimal investment into the climat index we obtain first insight into the dynamics of the market.
We study various properties of a dynamic convex risk measure for bounded random variables which describe the discounted terminal values of financial positions. In particular we characterize time-consistency by a joint supermartingale property of the risk measure and its penalty function. Moreover we discuss the limit behavior of the risk measure in terms of asymptotic safety and of asymptotic precision, a property which may be viewed as a non-linear analogue of martingale convergence. These results are illustrated by the entropic dynamic risk measure.
The subject of the present paper is a simplified model for a symmetric bistable system with memory or delay, the reference model, which in the presence of noise exhibits a phenomenon similar to what is known as stochastic resonance. The reference model is given by a one dimensional parametrized stochastic differential equation with point delay, basic properties whereof we check. With a view to capturing the effective dynamics and, in particular, the resonance-like behaviour of the reference model we construct a simplified or reduced model, the two state model, first in discrete time, then in the limit of discrete time tending to continuous time. The main advantage of the reduced model is that it enables us to explicitly calculate the distribution of residence times which in turn can be used to characterize the phenomenon of noise-induced resonance. Drawing on what has been proposed in the physics literature, we outline a heuristic method for establishing the link between the two state model and the reference model. The resonance characteristic developed for the reduced model can thus be applied to the original model.
We introduce a forward scheme to simulate backward SDEs. Compared
to existing schemes, we avoid high order nestings of conditional
expectations backwards in time. In this way the error, when
approximating the conditional expectation, in dependence of the
time partition is significantly reduced. Besides this generic
result, we present an implementable algorithm and provide an error
analysis for it. Finally, we demonstrate the strength of the new
algorithm by solving some financial problems numerically.
We analyse financial market models in which agents form their demand for an asset on
the basis of their forecasts of future prices and where their forecasting rules may change
over time, as a result of the influence of other traders. Agents will switch from one rule to
another stochastically, and the price and profits process will reflect these switches. Among
the possible rules are “chartist” or extrapolatory rules. Prices can exhibit transient behaviour
when chartists predominate. However, if the probability that an agent will switch to being a
“chartist” is not too high then the process does not explode. There are occasional bubbles
but they inevitably burst. In fact, we prove that the limit distribution of the price process
exists and is unique. This limit distribution may be thought of as the appropriate equilibrium
notion for such markets. A number of characteristics of financial time series can be captured
by this sort of model. In particular, the presence of chartists fattens the tails of the stationary
distribution.
In the first part of the article, we characterize distribution-invariant risk measures with convex
acceptance and rejection sets on the level of distributions. It is shown that these risk measures
are closely related to utility-based shortfall risk.
In the second part of the paper, we provide an axiomatic characterization for distribution-invariant
dynamic risk measures of terminal payments. We prove a representation theorem and
investigate the relation to static risk measures. A key insight of the paper is that dynamic consistency
and the notion of "measure convex sets of probability measures" are intimately related.
This result implies that under weak conditions dynamically consistent dynamic risk measures can
be represented by static utility-based shortfall risk.
We derive a continuous time approximation of the evolutionary market selection model of Blume &
Easley (1992). Conditions on the payoff structure of the assets are identified that guarantee convergence. We show that the continuous
time approximation equals the solution of an integral equation
in a random environment. For constant asset returns, the integral equation reduces to an autonomous
ordinary differential equation. We analyze its long-run asymptotic behavior using techniques related to
Lyapunov functions, and compare our results to the benchmark of profit-maximizing investors.
The subject of the present paper is a simplified model for a symmetric bistable system with memory
or delay, the reference model, which in the presence of noise exhibits a phenomenon similar to what
is known as stochastic resonance. The reference model is given by a one dimensional parametrized
stochastic differential equation with point delay, basic properties whereof we check.
With a view to capturing the effective dynamics and, in particular, the resonance-like behavior of
the reference model we construct a simplified or reduced model, the two state model, first in discrete
time, then in the limit of discrete time tending to continuous time. The main advantage of the
reduced model is that it enables us to explicitly calculate the distribution of residence times which
in turn can be used to characterize the phenomenon of noise-induced resonance.
Drawing on what has been proposed in the physics literature, we outline a heuristic method for
establishing the link between the two state model and the reference model. The resonance characteristics
developed for the reduced model can thus be applied to the original model.
We consider potential type dynamical systems in finite dimensions with two meta-stable states.
They are subject to two sources of perturbation: a slow external periodic perturbation of period T
and a small Gaussian random perturbation of intensity ", and therefore mathematically described as
weakly time inhomogeneous diffusion processes. A system is in stochastic resonance provided the small
noisy perturbation is tuned in such a way that its random trajectories follow the exterior periodic
motion in an optimal fashion, i.e. for some optimal intensity "(T). The physicists' favorite measures
of quality of periodic tuning -- and thus stochastic resonance -- such as spectral power amplification or
signal-to-noise ratio have proven to be defective. They are not robust w.r.t. effective model reduction,
i.e. for the passage to a simplified finite state Markov chain model reducing the dynamics to a pure
jumping between the meta-stable states of the original system. An entirely probabilistic notion of
stochastic resonance based on the transition dynamics between the domains of attraction of the meta-
stable states -- and thus failing to suffer from this robustness defect -- was proposed before in the
context of one-dimensional discusions. It is investigated for higher dimensional systems here, by using
extensions and refinements of the Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations for time homogeneous
diffusions. Large deviation principles developed for weakly time inhomogeneous diffusions prove to be
key tools for a treatment of the problem of diffusion exit from a domain and thus for the approach of
stochastic resonance via transition probabilities between meta-stable sets.
The subject of the present paper is a simplified model for a symmetric bistable system with memory or delay, the reference model, which in the presence of noise exhibits a phenomenon similar to what is known as stochastic resonance. The reference model is given by a one dimensional parametrized stochastic differential equation with point delay, basic properties whereof we check.
With a view to capturing the effective dynamics and, in particular, the resonance-like behaviour of the reference model we construct a simplified or reduced model, the two state model, first in discrete time, then in the limit of discrete time tending to continuous time. The main advantage of the reduced model is that it enables us to explicitly calculate the distribution of residence times which in turn
can be used to characterize the phenomenon of noise-induced resonance.
Drawing on what has been proposed in the physics literature, we outline a heuristic method for establishing the link between the two state model and the reference model. The resonance characteristic developed for the reduced model can thus be applied to the original model.
In Kolodko & Schoenmakers (2004) and Bender & Schoenmakers (2004) a policy iteration was introduced which allows to achieve tight lower approximations of the price for early exercise options via a nested Monte-Carlo simulation in a Markovian setting. In this paper we enhance the algorithm by a scenario selection method. It is demonstrated by numerical examples that the scenario selection can significantly reduce the number of actually performed inner simulations, and thus can heavily speed up the method (up to factor 10 in some examples). Moreover, it is shown that the modified algorithm retains the desirable properties of the original one such as the monotone improvement property, termination after a finite number of iteration steps, and numerical stability.
We propose a valuation method for callable structures in a multi-factor Libor model which are path-dependent in the sense that, after calling, one receives a sequence of cash-flows in the future, instead of a well specified cash-flow at the calling date. The method is based on a Monte Carlo procedure for standard Bermudans recently developed in Kolodko & Schoenmakers (2004), and is applied to the cancelable snowball interest rate swap. The proposed procedure is quite generic, straightforward to implement, and can be easily adapted to other related path-dependent products.
We present a new iterative procedure for solving the multiple stopping
problem in discrete time and discuss the stability of the algorithm.
The algorithm produces monotonically increasing approximations of the
Snell envelope, which coincide with the Snell envelope after finitely many
steps. Contrary to backward dynamic programming, the algorithm allows
to calculate approximative solutions with only a few nestings of conditional
expectations and is, therefore, tailor-made for a plain Monte-Carlo
implementation.
In this project we propose the use of some widespread prediction techniques in the last few years for modeling derivatives. In order to do that, we have reviewed the state-of-the-art of the prediction models dealing with stochastic processes. In the oil futures sector, Schwartz suggested a model in which the oil futures price was split in two factors: the long-term equilibrium price and the short-term variations. As a result, we propose a Hull-White discrete-time two-factor interest rate model, whose factors are the short and the long term.
We apply theoretical results of S. Peng on supersolutions for BS-DEs
to the problem of finding optimal superhedging strategies in a
Black-Scholes market under constraints. Constraints may be imposed
simultaneously on wealth process and portfolio. They may be nonconvex,
time-dependent, and random. Constraints on the portfolio may
e.g. be formulated in terms of the amount of money invested, the portfolio
proportion, or the number of shares held.