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We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalized probability measures on the optional $\sigma$-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular we show how ``bubbles'' may appear in the dynamic penalization, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure.
Dynamic risk measures
(2010)
This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty functions, and by supermartingale properties of risk processes and penalty functions.
The classical valuation of an uncertain cash flow in discrete time consists in taking the expectation of the sum of the discounted future payoffs under a fixed probability measure, which is assumed to be known. Here we discuss the valuation problem in the context of Knightian uncertainty. Using results from the theory of convex risk measures, but without assuming the existence of a global reference measure, we derive a robust representation of concave valuations with an infinite time horizon, which specifies the interplay between model uncertainty and uncertainty about the time value of money.
Recently, there is a growing trend to offer guarantee products where the investor is allowed to shift her account/investment value between multiple funds. The switching right is granted a finite number per year, i.e. it is American style with multiple exercise possibilities. In consequence, the pricing and the risk management is based on the switching strategy which maximizes the value of the guarantee put option. We analyze the optimal stopping problem in the case of one switching right within different model classes and compare the exact price with the lower price bound implied by the optimal deterministic switching time. We show that, within the class of log-price processes with independent increments, the stopping problem is solved by a deterministic stopping time if (and only if) the price process is in addition continuous. Thus, in a sense, the Black & Scholes model is the only (meaningful) pricing model where the lower price bound gives the exact price. It turns out that even moderate deviations from the Black & Scholes model assumptions give a lower price bound which is really below the exact price. This is illustrated by means of a stylized stochastic volatility model setup.
In this paper we consider the optimal stopping problem for general dynamic monetary utility functionals. Sufficient conditions for the Bellman principle and the existence of optimal stopping times are provided. Particular attention is payed to representations which allow for a numerical treatment in real situations. To this aim, generalizations of standard evaluation methods like policy iteration, dual and consumption based approaches are developed in the context of general dynamic monetary utility functionals. As a result, it turns out that the possibility of a particular generalization depends on specific properties of the utility functional under consideration.
Boolean modeling frameworks have long since proved their worth for capturing and analyzing essential characteristics of complex systems.
Hybrid approaches aim at exploiting the advantages of Boolean formalisms while refining expressiveness. In this paper, we present a formalism that augments Boolean models with stochastic aspects. More specifically, biological reactions effecting a system in a given state are associated
with probabilities, resulting in dynamical behavior represented as a Markov chain. Using this approach, we model and analyze the cytokinin
response network of Arabidopsis thaliana with a focus on clarifying the character of an important feedback mechanism.
Bovine fertility is the subject of extensive research in animal sciences,
especially because fertility of dairy cows has declined during the last
decades. The regulation of estrus is controlled by the complex interplay
of various organs and hormones. Mathematical modeling of the bovine
estrous cycle could help in understanding the dynamics of this complex
biological system. In this paper we present a mechanistic mathematical
model of the bovine estrous cycle that includes the processes of follicle
and corpus luteum development and the key hormones that interact to
control these processes. The model generates successive estrous cycles of
21 days, with three waves of follicle growth per cycle. The model contains
12 differential equations and 54 parameters. Focus in this paper is on
development of the model, but also some simulation results are presented,
showing that a set of equations and parameters is obtained that describes
the system consistent with empirical knowledge. Even though the majority
of the mechanisms that are included in the model are based on relations
that in literature have only been described qualitatively (i.e. stimulation
and inhibition), the output of the model is surprisingly well in line with
empirical data. This model of the bovine estrous cycle could be used
as a basis for more elaborate models with the ability to study effects of
external manipulations and genetic differences.
We consider simple models of financial markets with less and better
informed investors described by a smaller and a larger filtration on a
general stochastic basis that describes the market dynamics, including
continuous and jump components. We study the relation between different forms of non existance of arbitrage and the characteristics of the stochastic basis under the different filtrations. This is achieved through the analysis of the properties of the numéraire portfolio. Furthermore, we focus on the problem of calculating the additional logarithmic utility of the better informed investor in terms of the Shannon antropy of is additional information. The information drift, i.e. the drift to eliminate in order to preserved the martingale property in the larger filtration terms out to be the crucial quantity needed to tackle these problems. We show that the expected
ed logarithmic utility increment due to better information equals its Shannon
entropy also in case of a pure jump basis with jumps that are quadratically
hedgeable, and so extend a similar result known for bases consisting of
continuous semimartingales. An example illustrates that the equality may
not persist if both continuous and jump components are present in the
underlying.