Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers
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45
We consider a monopolistic certifier selling certification services to a partially privately informed seller. The certifier can enable the seller to disclose her private information publicly, as well as gather additional market information about the good's quality publicly. We show that the certifier's optimal contract exhibits maximal disclosure but non-maximal information-gathering. Thus, optimal contracts eliminate private information but not market uncertainty; even though the latter would be costless, it is suboptimal as it requires excessive information rents to the seller. Thus, market inefficiencies remain due to market uncertainty but not due to private information.
44
We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique dataset with matched transaction- price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s.
43
Separate Housework Spheres
(2024)
Using novel time-use data from Germany before and after reunification, we document two facts: First, spouses who both work full-time exhibit similar housework patterns whether they do so voluntarily or due to a full-time mandate, as in the GDR. Second, men’s amount of housework is independent of their spouse’s labour supply. We theoretically explain this pattern by the presence of two household goods and socially learned gender-specific comparative advantage in their home production. We label this gender specialisation as separate housework spheres. Empirical evidence strongly confirms separate housework spheres in the GDR, West Germany, subsequent years post-reunification, and in international time-use data across 17 countries since the 1970s. We consider several implications, such as those for child penalties, where separate housework spheres provide a novel explanation for why it is the mothers whose labour market outcomes strongly deteriorate upon the arrival of children.
42
Strategic Use of Unfriendly Leadership and Labor Market Competition: An Experimental Analysis
(2024)
A significant portion of the workforce experiences what we term `unfriendly leadership,' encompassing various forms of hostile behavior exhibited by managers. The motivations driving managers to adopt such behaviors are insufficiently understood. To explore this phenomenon, we conducted a laboratory experiment examining the relationship between managers' use of unfriendly leadership and labor market competition. We discern two labor market states: excess labor demand, where managers compete to hire workers, and excess labor supply, where workers compete to be hired. By perceiving unfriendly leadership as a performance-contingent punishment device inflicting discomfort on workers, we hypothesize that managers are less inclined to resort to unfriendly leadership when they compete to hire workers. We find that managers tend to engage in unfriendly leadership more frequently and intensely under excess labor supply, in comparison to excess labor demand. This trend is particularly pronounced among male participants. Additionally, workers display a decreased likelihood of accepting employment offers from more unfriendly managers and exert lower levels of effort when working under such managers, indicating that unfriendly leadership is costly.
41
We demonstrate how the incentives of firms that partially own their suppliers or customers to foreclose rivals depend on how the partial owner can extract profits from the target. Compared to a fully vertically integrated firm, a partial owner may obtain only a share of the target’s profit but influence the target’s strategy significantly. We show that the incentives for customer and input foreclosure can be higher, equal, or even lower with partial ownership than with a vertical merger, depending on how the protection of minority shareholders and transfer price regulations affect the scope for profit extraction.
40
Across industrialized countries, regional disparities in labor market outcomes and income have increased in recent decades. This paper investigates how one of the largest localized labor demand shocks tied to the beginning of de-industrialization- the decline of the mining industry between 1960 and 2010 - affects labor market outcomes in the long run. The analysis relies on a new panel data set based on digitized census records from Belgium, France, the UK, and Germany that allows to trace labor market adjustments over 60 years for the male and female working-age population separately. For the causal estimation, I use an IV-shift share approach that exploits exogenous variation in the shifts induced by increased seaborne trade of energy substitutes and the share given by geological rock strata to predict mining activity. The male population disproportionately suffered under this (early) de-industrialization shock and the subsequent job loss. For the male population, the employment-population ratio has not yet recovered resulting in persistent local joblessness. In contrast, the female working-age population experienced a strong catch-up in employment and participation. I find that at the aggregate level, a substantial, albeit time-lagged population response paired with a strong increase in female participation rates fully compensate for the loss of male jobs over the decades. As a consequence, the male-female employment gap shrinks over time.
39
Narrative Persuasion
(2024)
We study how one person may shape the way another person interprets objective information. They do this by proposing a sense-making explanation (or narrative). Using a theory-driven experiment, we investigate the mechanics of such narrative persuasion. Our results reveal several insights. First, narratives are persuasive: We find that they systematically shift beliefs. Second, narrative fit (coherence with the facts) is a key determinant of persuasiveness. Third, this fit-heuristic is anticipated by narrative-senders, who systematically tailor their narratives to the facts. Fourth, the features of a competing narrative predictably influence both narrative construction and adoption.
38
To accept carbon pricing, citizens desire viable alternatives to fossil-fuel based options. As inflation and higher interest rates have exacerbated access barriers for capital-intensive green substitutes, the political success of carbon pricing will be measured by how well policy design enables consumers to switch.
37
This chapter presents a microeconomic, behavioral perspective on bounded rationality and beliefs. It begins with an account of how research on belief biases, in particular via probabilistic belief elicitation, has become mainstream in economics only relatively recently and late, even in behavioral economics (aka “psychology and economics”). The chapter then offers a review of the decision-theoretic foundations of modeling and eliciting (subjective) beliefs as probabilities, as well as selected—both classic and recent—evidence on humans’ bounded rationality from related research in psychology and economics. In doing so, it connects the historical debates within decision theory, on the one hand, and within psychology, on the other, concerning the normative status of expected utility and Bayesianism, as well as its methodological implications. A conclusion draws lessons for the practice of belief elicitation and future research.
36
While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1,843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top-of-mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy and that an information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for therapy. Information affects therapy demand by changing beliefs rather than by shifting attention. Our results suggest that information interventions that target the perceived effectiveness of therapy are a potent tool in combating the ongoing mental health crisis.
35
This paper studies a key element of discrimination, namely when stereotypes translate into discriminatory actions. Using a hiring experiment, we rule out taste-based discrimination by design and test for the presence of two types of belief-based gender discrimination. We document evidence of explicit discriminators—individuals who are willing to discriminate even when their hiring choices are highly revealing of their gender-biased beliefs. Crucially, we also identify implicit discriminators—individuals who do not discriminate against women when taking a discriminatory action is highly revealing of their biased beliefs, but do discriminate against women when their biased motive is obscured. Our analysis highlights the central role played by features of the choice environment in determining whether and how discrimination will manifest. We conclude by discussing the implications for policy design.
35
This paper studies a key element of discrimination, namely when stereotypes translate into discriminatory actions. Using a hiring experiment, we rule out taste-based discrimination by design and test for the presence of two types of belief-based gender discrimination. We document evidence of explicit discriminators—individuals who are willing to discriminate even when their hiring choices are highly revealing of their gender-biased beliefs. Crucially, we also identify implicit discriminators—individuals who do not discriminate against women when taking a discriminatory action is highly revealing of their biased beliefs, but do discriminate against women when their biased motive is obscured. Our analysis highlights the central role played by features of the choice environment in determining whether and how discrimination will manifest. We conclude by discussing the implications for policy design.
34
How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total $N=9500$), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation target as more credible, the ECB's communication as more honest, and the ECB's policy as more beneficial to them. Finally, the causal effect of central bank trust on inflation expectations is quantified using instruments to deal with endogeneity.
33
The Political Economy of Stranded Assets: Climate Policies, Investments and the Role of Elections
(2024)
We study the interaction of climate policies and investments into fossil and renewable energy generation capacity if policies are set by democratically elected governments and can lead to stranded assets. We develop an overlapping generations model, where elections determine carbon taxation and green investment subsidies, and individuals make investments into fossil and renewable capacity. We find that some fossil investments become stranded assets, if the party offering the higher carbon tax is unexpectedly elected. In contrast, if the individuals have perfect foresight, there are no stranded assets, climate damages are fixed and carbon taxation only serves redistributive purposes. Then, there is either no or prohibitive carbon taxation and energy generation completely relies on renewables in the latter case. Green investment subsidies can be used by governments to bind the hands of their successor. If the party representing the young generation is in power, it can use a high subsidy to reduce or even avoid potentially stranded assets in the next period. With endogenous reelection probability, we show that this party can also use investment subsidies strategically to influence the elections. The party that represents the old generation abstains from both types of climate policies to avoid a redistribution of income towards the young generation.
32
This paper studies how the swiftness and delay of punishment affect behavior. Using rich administrative data from automated speed cameras, we exploit two (quasi-)experimental sources of variation in the time between a speeding offense and the sending of a ticket. At the launch of the speed camera system, administrative challenges caused delays of up to three months. Later, we implemented a protocol that randomly assigned tickets to swift or delayed processing. We identify two different results. First, delays have a negative effect on payment compliance: the rate of timely paid fines diminishes by 7 to 9% when a ticket is sent with a delay of four or more weeks. We also find some evidence that very swift tickets – sent on the first or second day following the offense – increase timely payments. These results align with the predictions of expert scholars that we elicited in a survey. Second, speeding tickets cause a strong, immediate, and persistent decline in speeding. However, we do not detect any robust, differential effects of swiftness or delay on speeding. This challenges widely held beliefs, as reflected in our survey. Yet, we document large mechanical benefits of swift punishment and provide a theoretical framework of learning and updating that explains our findings.
31
We introduce political salience into a canonical model of attacks against political regimes, as scaling agents’ expressive payoffs from taking sides. Equilibrium balances heterogeneous expressive concerns with material bandwagoning incentives, and we show that comparative statics in salience characterize stability. As main insight, when regime sanctions are weak, increases from low to middling salience can pose the greatest threat to regimes – ever smaller shocks suffice to drastically escalate attacks. Our results speak to the charged debates about democracy, by identifying conditions under which heightened interest in political decision-making can pose a threat to democracy in and of itself.
30
We cast mechanism design with evidence in the framework of Myerson (1982), whereby his generalized revelation principle directly applies and yields standard notions of incentive compatible direct mechanisms. Their specific nature depends on whether the agent's (verifiable) presentation of evidence is contractually controllable, however. For deterministic implementation, we show that, in general, such control has value, and we offer two independent conditions under which this value vanishes, one on evidence (WET) and another on preferences (TIWO). Allowing for fully stochastic mechanisms, we also show how randomization generally has value and clarify to what extent this value vanishes under the common assumption of evidentiary normality (NOR). While, in general, the value of control extends to stochastic implementation, neither control nor randomization have any value if NOR holds together with WET or TIWO.
29
Cities increasingly address climate change, e.g. by pledging city-level emission reduction targets. This is puzzling for the provision of a global public good: what are city governments’ reasons for doing so, and do pledges actually translate into emission reductions? Empirical studies have found a set of common factors which relate to these questions, but also mixed evidence. What is still pending is a theoretical framework to explain those findings and gaps. This paper thus develops an abstract public choice model. The model features economies of scale and distinguishes urban reduction targets from actual emission reductions. It is able to support some stylized facts from the empirical literature and to resolve some mixed evidence as special cases. Two city types result. One type does not achieve its target, but reduces more emissions than a free-riding city. These relations reverse for the other type. The type determines whether cities with lower abatement costs more likely set targets. A third type does not exist. For both types, cities which set targets and have higher private costs of carbon are more ambitious. If marginal net benefits of mitigation rise with city size, then larger cities gain more from setting climate targets. Findings are contrasted with an alternative model where targets reduce abatement costs. Some effects remain qualitatively the same, while others clearly differ. The model can thus guide further empirical and theoretical work.
28
Individuals vary considerably in how much they earn during their lifetimes. This study examines the role of the tax-and-transfer system in mitigating such inequalities, which could otherwise lead to disparities in living standards. Utilizing a life-cycle model, we determine that taxes and transfers offset 45% of lifetime earnings inequality attributed to differences in productive abilities and education. Additionally, the system insures against 48% of lifetime earnings risk. Implementing a lifetime tax reform linking annual taxes to previous employment could improve the system’s insurance capabilities, albeit at the cost of a lower employment rate.
27
We analyze how machine learning predictions may improve antibiotic prescribing in the context of the global health policy challenge of increasing antibiotic resistance. Estimating a binary antibiotic treatment choice model, we find variation in the skill to diagnose bacterial urinary tract infections and in how general practitioners trade off the expected cost of resistance against antibiotic curative benefits. In counterfactual analyses we find that providing machine learning predictions of bacterial infections to physicians increases prescribing efficiency. However, to achieve the policy objective of reducing antibiotic prescribing, physicians must also be incentivized. Our results highlight the potential misalignment of social and heterogeneous individual objectives in utilizing machine learning for prediction policy problems.
26
This paper studies a recent legal reform in Germany, which aims to lower commission rates of real estate agents by raising the cost salience of sellers. I find that the reform has backfired and real estate agents have exploited the transition to increase their commission rates. The findings document that in some regions real estate agents increase their commission by up to 2 percentage points, adding over € 6,000 in transaction cost to the average home sale. As explicit collusion is unlikely in this setting, I argue that this arbitrary increase points to seller ignorance instead. To verify if and why sellers fail to induce price competition, I run a pre-registered survey experiment with 1,062 real estate agents. Although commission rates should be negotiated independently for each sale, the survey confirms that 85% of sellers do not attempt to negotiate lower commission rates. The randomized experimental questions suggest that real estate agents may cater to the low willingness of sellers to negotiate by providing misleading reference commission rates and shrouding the economic incidence for sellers.
25
We use German administrative and survey data to investigate the heterogeneity of part-time penalties in hourly wages and growth rates. Exploiting tax reforms for identification, we find substantial heterogeneity in part-time wage penalties from −28.3% to −7.2% compared to full-time. The heterogeneity in wage growth penalties is less pronounced. Both penalties do not decrease linearly with additional working hours. More weekly working hours might result in a higher hourly wage penalty. The shape of the penalties is driven by workers with non-demanding tasks and professions where working around 30 weekly hours is uncommon, and relatively many females work.
24
This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing inference only on a univariate jump test applied to the spread tends to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the statistical approach in the context of an intersection union test in multiple testing. We document the relevance of coherent tests and their practicability via simulations and real data examples.
24
This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing inference only on a univariate jump test applied to the spread tends to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the statistical approach in the context of an intersection union test in multiple testing. We document the relevance of coherent tests and their practicability via simulations and real data examples.
23
We estimate the effect of the level of fines on payment compliance and revenues collected from speeding tickets. Exploiting discontinuous increases in fines at speed cutoffs and reform induced variation in these discontinuities, we implement two complementary regression discontinuity designs. The results consistently document small payment responses: a 10% increase in the fine (i.e. the payment obligation) induces a 1.2 percentage point decline in timely payments. The implied revenue elasticity is about 0.9. Expressed in absolute terms, a one dollar increase in the fine translates into a roughly 60 cent increase in payments collected within 15 days.
22
We document majority support for policies entailing global redistribution and climate mitigation. Recent surveys on 40,680 respondents in 20 countries covering 72% of global carbon emissions show strong support for an effective and progressive way to combat climate change and poverty: a global carbon price funding a global basic income, called the “Global Climate Scheme” (GCS). Using complementary surveys on 8,000 respondents in the U.S., France, Germany, Spain, and the UK, we test several hypotheses that could reconcile strong stated support with a lack of salience in policy circles. A list experiment shows no evidence of social desirability bias, majorities are willing to sign a real-stake petition, and global redistribution ranks high in the prioritization of policies. Conjoint analyses reveal that a platform is more likely to be preferred if it contains the GCS or a global tax on millionaires. Universalistic attitudes are confirmed by an incentivized donation. In sum, our findings indicate that global policies are genuinely supported by a majority of the population. Public opinion is therefore not the reason that they do not prominently enter political debates.
21
The success of climate policies depends crucially on the dynamics of public support. Using unique longitudinal data from three surveys conducted between 2019 and 2022, we study the variations of public support for carbon pricing in Germany. The period includes two relevant events: the introduction and ramping up of carbon pricing in Germany and the exogenous increase in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using panel methods, we show that support is very persistent over time and might have increased slightly more recently. However, people who experience high energy costs display a lower support. Regarding revenue use, we detect that social cushioning has become more popular after the introduction of carbon pricing. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to gather enough support before implementing climate policies.
20
We empirically analyze the heterogeneous welfare effects of unemployment insurance and social assistance. We estimate a structural life-cycle model of singles’ and married couples’ labor supply and savings decisions. The model includes heterogeneity by age, education, wealth, sex and household composition. In aggregate, social assistance dominates unemployment insurance; however, the opposite holds true for married men, whose leisure time declines more than that of their spouses when unemployment insurance is reduced. A revenue-neutral rebalancing of social support away from unemployment insurance and toward social assistance increases aggregate welfare. Income pooling in married households decreases the welfare value of social assistance.
19
Inefficient human decisions are driven by biases and limited information. Health care is one leading example where machine learning is hoped to deliver efficiency gains. Antibiotic resistance constitutes a major challenge to health care systems due to human antibiotic overuse. We investigate how a policy leveraging the strengths of a machine learning algorithm and physicians can provide new opportunities to reduce antibiotic use. We focus on urinary tract infections in primary care, a leading cause for antibiotic use, where physicians often prescribe prior to attaining diagnostic certainty. Symptom assessment and rapid testing provide diagnostic information with limited accuracy, while laboratory testing can diagnose bacterial infections with considerable delay. Linking Danish administrative and laboratory data, we optimize policy rules which base initial prescription decisions on machine learning predictions and delegate decisions to physicians where these benefit most from private information at the point-of-care. The policy shows a potential to reduce antibiotic prescribing by 8.1 percent and overprescribing by 20.3 percent without assigning fewer prescriptions to patients with bacterial infections. We find human-algorithm complementarity is essential to achieve efficiency gains.
18
In the fight against antibiotic resistance, reducing antibiotic consumption while preserving healthcare quality presents a critical health policy challenge. We investigate the role of practice styles in patients’ antibiotic intake using exogenous variation in patient-physician assignment. Practice style heterogeneity explains 49% of the differences in overall antibiotic use and 83% of the differences in second-line antibiotic use between primary care providers. We find no evidence that high prescribing is linked to better treatment quality or fewer adverse health outcomes. Policies improving physician decision-making, particularly among high-prescribers, may be effective in reducing antibiotic consumption while sustaining healthcare quality.
17
In models of certification possible restrictions on the nature of the fee structures are commonly analyzed. We show that they are irrelevant for the certifier’s ability to maximize profits and trade efficiency. Our results establish that certification schemes involve two substitutable dimensions—the fee structure and the disclosure rule. In the context of a canonical unit good certification setup, these dimensions act as perfect substitutes for achieving trade efficiency and (monotone) distributions of rents; adjustments in the disclosure dimension can fully mitigate restrictions in the fee dimension, but these changes do affect market transparency.
16
Correlation-Savvy Sellers
(2023)
A multi-product monopolist sells sequentially to a buyer who privately learns his valuations. Using big data, the monopolist learns the intertemporal correlation of the buyer’s valuations. Perfect price discrimination is generally unattainable—even when the seller learns the correlation perfectly, has full commitment, and in the limit where the consumption good about which the buyer has ex ante private information becomes insignificant. This impossibility is due to informational externalities which requires information rents for the buyer’s later consumption. These rents induce upward and downward distortions, violating the generalized no distortion at the top principle of dynamic mechanism design.
15
We provide causal evidence that patience is a significant source of bargaining power. Generalizing the Rubinstein (1982) bargaining model to arbitrarily non-stationary discounting, we first show that dynamic consistency across bargaining rounds is sufficient for a unique equilibrium, which we characterize. We then experimentally implement a version of this game where bargaining delay is negligible (frequent offers, so dynamic consistency holds by design), while payoff delay is significant (a week or month per round of disagreement, with or without front-end delay). Our treatments induce different time preferences between subjects by randomly assigning individuals different public payoff delay profiles. The leading treatment allows to test for a general patience advantage, predicted independent of the shape of discounting, and it receives strong behavioral support. Additional treatments show that this advantage hinges on the availability of immediate payoffs and reject exponential discounting in favor of present-biased discounting.
14
We repeatedly elicit beliefs about the returns to study effort, in a large university course. A behavioral model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and malleable beliefs predicts that the dynamics of beliefs mirrors the importance of exerting self-control, such that believed returns increase as the exam approaches, and drop post-exam. Exploiting variation in exam timing to control for common information shocks, we find this prediction confirmed: average believed study returns increase by about 20% over the period before the exam, and drop by about the same amount afterwards. Additional analyses further support the hypothesized mechanism that beliefs serve as a means of self-control.
13
Leveraging two cohort-specific pension reforms, this paper estimates the forward-looking effects of an exogenous increase in the working horizon on (un)employment behaviour for individuals with a long remaining statutory working life. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches based on administrative and survey data, I show that a longer legal working horizon increases individuals’ subjective expectations about the length of their work life, raises the probability of employment, decreases the probability of unemployment, and increases the intensity of job search among the unemployed. Heterogeneity analyses show that the demonstrated employment effects are strongest for women and in occupations with comparatively low physical intensity, i.e., occupations that can be performed at older ages.
11
We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level CO2 standards using neighboring countries as a control group. The program was cost-ineffective, as only 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced, and had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. The implied abatement cost of 870 euro per ton of CO2 for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs suggests that subsidies to PHEVs were especially cost-ineffective.
12
I study the role of firm heterogeneity for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the form of “credit policy” à la Gertler and Karadi (2011). To this end, I lay out a Two-Agent New-Keynesian model with financially constrained and unconstrained firms and a financial intermediary with an endogenous leverage constraint. I find that, when firms are heterogeneous, aggregate investment is substantially less responsive to credit policy compared to an identical firm setting. Moreover, when debt markets are segmented, credit policy directed exclusively at financially unconstrained firms is most effective. My paper provides a tractable framework to illustrate mechanisms through which firm heterogeneity affects the transmission of credit policy. According to my findings, the presence of firm heterogeneity can be expected to make credit policy less effective than predicted by a representative agent framework.
10
This paper studies if workers infer from correlation about causal effects in the context of the part-time wage penalty. Differences in hourly pay between full-time and part-time workers are strongly driven by worker selection and systematic sorting. Ignoring these selection effects can lead to biased expectations about the consequences of working part-time on wages (’selection neglect bias’). Based on representative survey data from Germany, I document substantial misperceptions of the part-time wage gap. Workers strongly overestimate how much part-time workers in their occupation earn per hour, whereas they are approximately informed of mean full-time wage rates. Consistent with selection neglect, those who perceive large hourly pay differences between full-time and part-time workers also predict large changes in hourly wages when a given worker switches between full-time and part-time employment. Causal analyses using a survey experiment reveal that providing information about the raw part-time pay gap increases expectations about the full-time wage premium by factor 1.7, suggesting that individuals draw causal conclusions from observed correlations. De-biasing respondents by informing them about the influence of worker characteristics on observed pay gaps mitigates selection neglect. Subjective beliefs about the part-time/full-time wage gap are predictive of planned and actual transitions between full-time and part-time employment, necessitating the prevention of causal misperceptions.
9
This study provides novel evidence about the pension wealth elasticity of employment. For the identification we exploit reform-induced variation of pension wealth that is related to the number of children but which does not affect the implicit tax rate of employment. We use a difference-in-differences estimator based on administrative data from the German pension insurance and find that, on average, the negative employment effect of pension wealth is significant and economically important. Heterogeneity analyses document a strong age pattern showing that the employment effects are driven by behavioral responses of women close to retirement. The age pattern is partly explained by the positive effect of pension wealth on disability pensions after the age of 60.
8
We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36% and NO2 exposure up to 53% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities.
7
Motherhood and parental leave are frequent causes of worker absences and employment interruptions, yet we know little about their effects on firms. Based on linked employer-employee data from Germany, we examine how more generous leave benefits affect firm-level employment and hiring decisions. Focusing on small- and medium-sized firms, we show that more generous benefits reduce firm-level employment in the short term, which is driven by firms with few internal substitutes for the absent mother. However, firms do not respond to longer expected absences by hiring fewer young women, even when few internal substitutes are available. To rationalise the findings, we show that replacement hiring occurs largely before the expected absence and that firms hire more external replacements when fewer internal substitutes are available. These findings indicate that extended leave does not harm _rms when these can plan for the longer worker absences.
6
Balance sheet smoothing
(2022)
We investigate how managers smooth volatility in balance sheets, using the pension accounting change IAS 19R as a shock to balance sheet volatility. This shock increases pension plans’ funding transparency, which is the source of volatility, without targeting actual plan funding. We find that managers adjust funding levels, pension asset allocation and assumptions to mitigate volatility at this source, but also plan settlements increase drastically. The volatility of accruals decreases, whereas volatility of discretionary real decisions increases pointing to managerial decisions to alleviate volatility in balance sheets. The exposure to balance sheet volatility and the relative net costs of related smoothing are cross-sectional predictors of smoothing activities. Overall, we provide evidence consistent with a vast body of pension accounting literature mentioning but not explicitly investigating the transmission of pension plan volatility on firms’ balance sheets. Our findings link this literature with studies on balance sheet management and provide a new angle on the effects of a transparency mandate in (pension) accounting on managerial decision-making.
5
Over the past decades, the share of very young children in daycare has increased significantly in many OECD countries, including Germany. Despite the relevance of child health for child development and later life success, the effect of early daycare attendance on health has received little attention in the economic literature. In this study, I investigate the impact of a large daycare expansion in Germany on children’s age-specific mental and physical health outcomes. Based on a unique set of administrative health records covering 90% of the German population over a period of ten years, I exploit exogenous variation in daycare attendance induced by the expansion. My results provide evidence for the substitution of illness spells from the first years of elementary school to the first years of daycare. Specifically, I find that early daycare attendance increases the prevalence of respiratory and infectious diseases and healthcare consumption when entering daycare (1–2 years) by 5–6 percent. At elementary school age (6–10 years), the prevalence decreases by similar magnitudes. I do not find evidence for an effect of daycare attendance on mental disorders, obesity, injuries, vision problems, or healthcare costs. Heterogeneity analysis indicates more pronounced effects for children from disadvantaged areas, earlier detection of vision problems, and a reduction in obesity in these children.
4
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents’ degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.
3
Fossil fuels have shaped the European economy since the industrial revolution. In this paper, we analyse the effect of coal and oil on long-run economic growth, exploiting variation at the level of European NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions over the last century. We show that an “oil invasion” in the early 1960s turned regional coal abundance from a blessing into a curse, using new detailed data on carboniferous strata as an instrument. Moreover, we show that human capital accumulation was the key mechanism behind this reversal of fortune. Not only did former coal regions fail to accumulate sufficient levels of human capital, but pre-industrial human capital helped declining regions to reinvent themselves. Without sufficient human capital, fossil fuels did never generate sustainable growth.
2
Mindfulness-based meditation practices are becoming increasingly popular in Western societies, including in the business world and in education. While the scientific literature has largely documented the benefits of mindfulness meditation for mental health, little is still known about potential spillovers of these practices on other important life outcomes, such as performance. We address this question through a field experiment in an educational setting. We study the causal impact of mindfulness meditation on academic performance through a randomized evaluation of a well-known 8-week mindfulness meditation training delivered to university students on campus. As expected, the intervention improves students’ mental health and non-cognitive skills. However, it takes time before students' performance can benefit from mindfulness meditation: we find that, if anything, the intervention marginally decreases average grades in the short run, i.e., during the exam period right after the end of the intervention, whereas it significantly increases academic performance, by about 0.4 standard deviations, in the long run (ca. 6 months after the end of intervention). We investigate the underlying mechanisms and discuss the implications of our results.
1
We study the local evolution of female labour supply and cultural norms in West Germany in reaction to the sudden presence of East Germans who migrated to the West after reunification. These migrants grew up with high rates of maternal employment, whereas West German families mostly followed the traditional breadwinner-housewife model. We find that West German women increase their labour supply and that this holds within households. We provide additional evidence on stated gender norms, West-East friendships, intermarriage, and child care infrastructure. The dynamic evolution of the local effects on labour supply is best explained by local cultural learning and endogenous child care infrastructure.