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Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing
(2024)
Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between –5% to –21% across the schemes (–4% to –15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of “what works” and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.
Production and consumption of goods and services are interlinked through complex global supply-chain networks; so are the greenhouse gas emissions associated with them. Using a model that represents global supply-chain networks, we identified supply-chain clusters with high CO2 emissions within more than 300 million individual supply chains. We distinguished 4756 significant CO2 clusters and found that in 2008, global supply-chain networks associated with U.S. transport equipment and construction demand included relatively large CO2 clusters in China, accounting for 17% and 10%, respectively, of the U.S. CO2 footprint. Of added importance is the fact that these two clusters in China had annual growth rates of 42% and 58%, respectively, during the period 1995–2008. Our results show the importance for climate policy of monitoring these CO2 clusters that dominate CO2 emissions in global supply chains, and they offer insights on where climate policy can be effectively directed.