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Developing countries account for a large majority of global refugee reception. 3.5 million out of Syria's 4 million refugees have sought refuge in three countries - Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Is it possible to achieve a fair distribution of protection seekers? This Delmi report examines the division of responsibilities for those in need of protection from a global perspective. It analyses past and present models and discusses its feasibility in practice.
An issue that the European Union continues to face is how to coordinate the economic and fiscal policies of its member states. Recent reforms that created the European Semester require additional information concerning member states’ fiscal plans for the Commission and Council to review more rigorously. Spain has developed similar provisions for its regions. In this paper, Mark Hallerberg and Diego Salazar-Morales consider the possible lessons arising from the emerging federation in Spain for the European framework. They analyse the performance of Spain’s fiscal federalist framework with a special emphasis on its coordination and political relationship with the autonomous regions. Their findings suggest that coordination agreements are negatively correlated with balances, indicating that such agreements are indicators of fiscal problems and also that they did not contribute to lower deficits. Moreover, they find that politics, rather than fiscal rules and frameworks, led to differing fiscal performance. The paper concludes with lessons from Spain’s experience for the European Union.
Setting a country’s structural growth rate on a higher path, i.e. sparking and sustaining a growth acceleration can have quantitatively huge implications for national income and, more broadly, for people’s wellbeing. We develop a novel statistical framework to identify systematically the set of binding constraints that were unlocked before the 135 growth acceleration episodes that took place between 1962 and 2002 worldwide. We employ this information to characterise the acceleration process, which tends to be preceded by a deep recession and major economic policy changes. Once we combined this information with a set of counterfactual analyses, we find however that successful acceleration strategies should not contain off-the-shelf approaches or necessarily all-encompassing “shock therapy” solutions. On the other hand, they call for a careful tailoring to local conditions. Richer countries tend to experience fewer accelerations, but once these have been ignited, they are better positioned to make the most out of them. Despite standard growth determinants doing a fairly good job at characterising successful accelerations, we note how take-offs remain extremely hard to engineer with a high degree of certainty.
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain) based on over 200 past macroeconomic adjustment episodes between 1960-2010 worldwide. At its trough, between 2010 and 2015 per capita GDP had contracted on average 11 percentage points more in the Eurozone periphery than in the standard counterfactual scenario. These results are not dictated by any specific country experience, are robust to a battery of alternative counterfactual definitions, and stand confirmed when using a parametric dynamic panel regression model to account more thoroughly for the business cycle. Zooming in on the potential causes, the lack of an independent monetary policy, while having contributed to a deeper recession, does not fully explain the Eurozone’s specificity, which is instead to be identified in a sharper-than-expected contraction in investment and fiscal austerity due to high funding costs. Reading through the overall findings, there are reasons to believe that an incomplete Eurozone institutional setup contributed to aggravate the crisis through higher uncertainty.
The prevalence of artificial intelligent agents carrying out morally salient decisions is growing. The decisions made by such agents as autonomous cars or weapon systems, may have life and death consequences. We argue that the decision-making algorithms of all agents whose decisions have high societal impact should be transparent [6]; to ensure human-agent interaction is fully informed, consensual, and of maximum benefit to the society. Importantly, the literature also indicates we
may perceive and respond to morally salient decisions made by a machine differently to the same decision made by a human [5, 4, 3].
We present here a virtual reality simulation of a self-driving car we developed, in which users experience moral dilemmas. In our two studies, we investigate the perceptions of a morally salient decision; first as moderated by the type of the agent, artificial or natural (human), and then with the implementation of transparency. Specifically, inspired by the Moral Machine research programme [2, 1], we used social value as a moral framework. The agent chooses to hit a pedestrian on either the left or right side of a zebra crossing dependent on dimensions of occupation, body-size and
gender. Participants gave feedback after each scenario.
Contrary to past findings, participants in this current study were distressed at the principle of decision-making based on attributes such as social value. In questionnaire responses and postexperiment conversation the majority reported preferring such decisions to be made at random.
This raises important insights into how we implement moral frameworks. We suggest that the disparity between preferences from the current study and past work is due to the virtual reality methodology we used. Specifically, we note a distinction between emotional vs. rational decisionmaking, which was supported by an extension survey we conducted. Consistent with expectations,
the self-driving car was perceived as significantly less morally culpable and human-like than the
human-driver. The transparency implementation led to a further significant reduction in perceived
human-likeness, and also to reduced perceptions of intentionality. The reduction in moral culpability has disturbing possible connotations, though it may also be helpful for correct attribution of accountability. Promisingly, our transparency implementation significantly improved participants’
understanding of the self-driving cars decision.
We suggest companies implementing moral frameworks do not take crowd-sourced preferences at face value, but explore the methodology used. Additionally, our work supports transparency as a mechanism to calibrate our mental models of autonomous agents.
The scientific final report describes the topics that have been worked on by the Böckler expert group on Workers Voice: Good scientific arguments for anchoring it more strongly and legally binding to the benefit of "good corporate governance". In the supervisory and executive bodies of cross-border operating companies in Europe.
The spread of false information and hate speech has increased with the rise of social media. This paper critically examines this phenomenon and the reactions of governments and major corporations in Europe. Policymakers have turned towards national regulation as a means to manage false information and hate speech. This article looks into the legislative frameworks on the issue in Germany, France, the UK, the Czech Republic, and Italy and compares them. In response to such regulatory pressure, tech companies have been changing aspects of their platforms to deal with this trend, for example through content moderation. We propose tentative alternatives to this current approach towards reinforcing boundaries for freedom of expression.
Differences in management quality are an important contributor to productivity differences across countries. A key question is then how to best improve poor management in developing countries. We test two different approaches to improving management in Colombian auto parts firms. The first uses intensive and expensive one-on-one consulting, while the second draws on agricultural extension approaches to provide consulting to small groups of firms at approximately one-third of the cost of the individual approach. Both approaches lead to improvements in management practices of a similar magnitude (8-10 percentage points), so that the new group-based approach dominates on a cost-benefit basis. Moreover, authors find some evidence that the group-based intervention led to increases in firm size over the next 1.5 years, including a statistically significant increase in employment, while the impacts on firm outcomes are smaller and statistically insignificant for the individual consulting. The results point to the potential of group-based approaches as a pathway to scaling up management improvements.
Personal Initiative Training Leads to Remarkable Growth of Women-Owned Small Businesses in Togo
(2018)
Standard business training programs aim to boost the incomes of the millions of self-employed business owners in developing countries, by teaching accounting, marketing and other basic business skills. However, research shows limited impacts of this traditional business training approach. Through an experiment in Togo, we introduced the personal initiative training program, a new and effective psychology-based entrepreneurship training that outperforms traditional business training. The personal initiative training increased firm profits in Togo by 30 percent relative to a control group, compared to no significant impacts from a traditional business training. Personal initiative training led to more than just a boost in profits for micro entrepreneurs. After the training business owners were more innovative, introduced new products, borrowed more and made larger investments. The personal initiative training was particularly effective for female entrepreneurs, for whom traditional training has often been in effective. Women who received personal initiative training saw their profits increase by 40 percent, compared to 5 percent for traditional business. This study’s findings make a strong case for the role of psychology in better influencing how small business training programs are taught in West Africa and beyond. It shows the importance of developing an entrepreneurial mindset in addition to learning the business practices of successful entrepreneurs. Based on these promising results, the personal initiative training is being implemented in programs in Mozambique, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Jamaica, and Mexico.
Robots at the Tropics
(2018)
In recent years, a growing concern has emerged regarding the potential effects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotization on firms, and even more specifically on workers and the risks for their displacement (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017; Graetz and Michaels, 2015, among others). The emphasis of current research studies has been driven by the rapid decrease in the prices of robots, that according to Graetz and Michaels (2015) fell by 2005 to one fifth of its 1990 level adjusting for quality. Consequently, utilization of robots has increased in a wide range of different industries, with the operational stock of robots doubled between 2005 and 2016, reaching 1,828,024 units by the end of 2016 and expected to reach three millions by 2020 (International Federation of Robotics, 2017).
The evidence on the impact of robots on the global economy is still very limited and the results of recent studies exhibit great differences. For example, while Frey and Osborne (2017) indicate that the number of jobs that are in risk of automation could account for around 50%, Arntz et al.(2017) argue that this figure is overestimated due to the fact that the heterogeneity of tasks within occupations is not considered, which would reduce this number to around 9%.
This paper develops the following price indicators to measure the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets: (a) price dispersion, (b) price volatility, and (c) price transmission (speed, completeness, and symmetry). The paper uses these indicators to study trends and conditions of the outlet level in retail prices for common commodities sold throughout Mexico. The analysis examines price patterns for each indicator across commodities, regions, and time. The descriptive results indicate that although there is (expected) heterogeneity in the behavior of these indicators across commodities, location variables explain the most variation in the indicators. There are clear and persistent regional- and commodity-specific effects. Thus, the study concludes that Mexico is not one, well-integrated national market. The study tested whether changes in these indicators (increased efficiency) have the expected correlation with measures affecting the functioning of markets. It considered changes in competition and entry of large retail stores in the local retail market. These changes affect market efficiency in the way theory would predict. The results suggest that these indicators are good measures of the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets. The findings also suggest that efforts to monitor markets using these indicators may be useful. For example, for policy makers who are concerned about the distributional effects of liberalizing trade, the indicators may predict where price impacts will be felt the most and by whom. In addition, the indicators provide preliminary information about relative competition levels, which may be helpful in saving the time and effort of the competition authorities and possibly making them more effective.
This paper uses a panel of firms from the Mexican Economic Censuses and analyzes at the microeconomic level how labor markets adapt to the adoption of information and communication technologies. The paper studies the effects of the adoption of information and communication technologies over the labor structure of the firm and wages. Thus, it assesses whether increasing the use of information and communication technologies leads to an increasing demand for skilled relative to low-skilled labor, and, thus, analyzes its effects on the wage gap between the two groups. The results of this analysis show that there is indeed an effect of the adoption of information and communication technologies over the demand for higher-skilled workers. However, for the manufacturing and services sectors, instead of increasing the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers, the wage gap decreases. The results for the manufacturing sector appear to be driven by an increasing sophistication of blue-collar workers due to the organizational adjustments derived from the adoption of information and communication technologies.
This policy briefbuilds on theworkshop EU ETS Reform: Taking Stock and Examining Carbon Price Floor Options,held at the Centrefor European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels on July 3, 2018. The workshop was cosponsored by CEPS and the AHEAD and Mistra CarbonExit projects. While the brief draws on insights from workshop discussions, its views are solely those of the authors. The brief outlinesdifferent perspectives on thepast performanceof the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)in terms of its allowance price (Section 1), analyzes how the recent reform respondedto related challenges(Section 2), and considers the case for introducinga carbon pricefloor in the EU ETS(Section 3). The main part of the brief (Section 4) identifies five myths in the debate of an EU ETSpricefloorand criticallyconfrontsthem. Section 5 concludes by discussing potential entry points for introducing a carbon price floor in the context of the upcoming EU climate policy process
This paper examines gender differences in “multipartner fertility” – i.e., having children with several partners – in Germany and Finland. The analyses focus on women and men born around 1970 who are followed until age 41. We show that multipartner fertility is more common in Finland than in Germany. However, there are large East-West differences within Germany. East Germans are less likely to have a second or third child than West Germans, but those East Germans who progress to a higher order birth more often have this child with a new partner. We also find some gender differences in behaviour. Men display lower transition rates than women of having a second child with a new partner. We also examined individual-level factors associated with multipartner fertility. Having a first child at an early age is strongly and positively associated with
multipartner fertility. No consistent relationship between education and multipartner
fertility was found for Germany. In Finland, however, low education is associated with elevated risks of having children with different partners.
There is a strong rationale for close EU-UK cooperation on security and defence after Brexit. Each side should preserve the principle of cooperation in different arrangements for different areas, from policing to foreign policy.
The EU should embrace the UK’s proposal for a treaty on intra-EU security. Because no such treaty will be ready by March 2019, each side should aim for an interim agreement extending existing arrangements until one is in place.
On foreign policy and defence, the UK should not expect a seat at the table in European bodies, including in discussions around possible CSDP operations. Instead, both sides should establish new arrangements that keep them in touch with the other’s thinking. Regular working-level exchanges rather than a treaty are the aim here, such as monthly bilaterals between the British embassy in Brussels and the PSC chair, and UKREP and the EDA chief executive.
All this is achievable but needs clear principles if it is to succeed. These include: a broad understanding of the components of European security; agreement that unique arrangements are required for a unique situation; and a commitment not to treat security like just another element within the Brexit negotiations.
Preface
This essay is a reflection on the three decades I had the privilege
of spending at public policy schools in the United States, Britain,
and Germany. In the course of these years, my roles changed from
student to researcher, from assistant professor to full professor,
from faculty member to director, then dean and, finally, president.
For nearly a third of that time, I had the honour of serving at the
helm of the Hertie School of Governance. In this position, I had
the opportunity to get to know and visit around 50 other public
policy schools around the world, to act as external examiner, to
serve on several advisory boards and review committees, and to
host the Global Public Policy Network at the Hertie School of
Governance 2014-16.
Trennungen und Scheidungen auf einem hohen Niveau – auch unter Familien mit minderjährigen Kindern – kennzeichnen bereits seit längerer Zeit die Familienentwicklung in Deutschland und anderen europäischen Ländern. Sofern aus einer Beziehung gemeinsame Kinder hervorgegangen sind, impliziert eine Trennung zwar das Ende der Partnerschaft, jedoch nicht das Ende der Elternschaft. Sowohl auf gesellschaftlicher als auch auf individueller Ebene besteht, mit Ausnahme von Sondersituationen, mittlerweile die explizite Erwartung, dass Eltern nach einer Trennung in ökonomischer und sozialer Hinsicht weiterhin gemeinsam Verantwortung für ihre Kinder wahrnehmen. In der gesetzlichen Grundlage wird allerdings weiterhin davon ausgegangen, dass Kinder nach der Trennung bei nur einem Elternteil leben. Für andere Modelle existieren bisher keine oder nur unzureichende Regelungen. Die ökonomischen, sozialen und psychischen Folgen einer Trennung oder Scheidung können nach Geschlecht, sozialer Position und Alter variieren und damit soziale Ungleichheit hervorrufen oder verstärken. Neue Partnerschaften bzw. sogenannte Fortsetzungsfamilien beeinflussen das Leben der betroffenen Erwachsenen und Kinder zusätzlich. Bislang existieren über die Verbreitung und Lebensumstände von Nachtrennungsfamilien in Deutschland nur rudimentäre sozialwissenschaftliche Befunde. Die vorliegende Broschüre stellt einen ersten Versuch dar, bislang vorliegende sozialwissenschaftliche Befunde zur Lebenswirklichkeit von Nachtrennungsfamilien in Deutschland allgemeinverständlich in knapper Form zu bilanzieren. Folgende thematische Schwerpunkte werden behandelt: 1) Allgemeine Trends und rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen, 2) Elternschaft und Partnerschaft nach Trennung und Scheidung, 3) Wohlbefinden und Lebenszufriedenheit nach Trennung und Scheidung sowie 4) Finanzielle Folgen von Trennung und Scheidung. Diese Aspekte werden aus unterschiedlichen Perspektiven beleuchtet und zugrundeliegende empirische Analysen decken ein breites Spektrum der derzeit verfügbaren Datenquellen ab.