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Im Jahr 2011 führte Deutschland nach mehr als zwanzigjähriger Pause wieder einen Zensus durch. Die Vorgaben der Vereinten Nationen, nach der Länder mindestens alle zehn Jahre eine Volkszählung veranlassen sollten, waren längst überschritten und von Seiten der Bevölkerungswissenschaft wurde schon länger eine neue Zählung gefordert, um die Berechnung demografi scher Indikatoren wieder auf eine solide Basis stellen zu können. Mit dem Zensus 2011 kam Deutschland der Forderung einer aktuellen Zählung nach und beschritt zugleich mit einem registergestützten Zensus einen neuen Weg. Im Gegensatz zu den skandinavischen Ländern, die auf eine lange Tradition der Registerdatenanalysen und der Verknüpfung von Registerdaten zurückblicken können, stellte in Deutschland, wo die Zusamme nführung von Registern durch die gegebenen rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen stark eingeschränkt ist, ein registergestützter Zensus ein ambitioniertes Projekt dar. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert nach einer historischen Einordnung die Bedeutung des Zensus 2011 für die Generierung zentraler demografi scher Daten. Insbesondere werden die fortgeschriebenen Ergebnisse des alten Zensus 1987 mit den Ergebnissen des Zensus 2011 verglichen, um mögliche systematische Fehlerquellen zu eruieren, welche die demografi schen Indikatoren und Analysen verzerren.
The register-based census in Germany : Historical context and relevance for population research
(2016)
In 2011, Germany carried out its first census after a 20-year break. In light of the United Nations’ recommendations that countries initiate a population census at least every 10 years, the census was long overdue. Moreover, demographers had for some time been demanding a new enumeration that would enable them to place the calculation of demographic indicators on a reliable basis. With the 2011 census, Germany not only met the demand for a current population census, but also broke new ground by using a register-based approach. Unlike the Scandinavian countries, which have a long tradition of performing register-based data analyses, the linking of administrative data in Germany is restricted by the country’s legal framework. Thus, the 2011 census was an ambitious project. After contextualising the 2011 census historically, we discuss in this contribution the census’ relevance for generating central demographic data. Specifically, we compare the updated population estimates of the 1987 census to the results of the 2011 census in order to identify possible systematic sources of error that distort demographic indicators and analyses.
Until 2008, Germany’s vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at fi rst birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specifi c birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using Perinatal Statistics to generate birth order-specific fertility rates for the period 2001 to 2008. Perinatal Statistics includes information on births that took place in German hospitals. Out-of-hospital births, which account for about 2 % of all births, are not included in the Perinatal Statistics. In a sensitivity analysis, we show how robust our estimates are to the inclusion of out-of-hospital births. Our general assessment is that the Perinatal Statistics is a valuable source for generating order-specific fertility rates, regardless of whether out-of-hospital births are included.
In recent years, considerable progress has been made in improving the data infrastructure for fertility and morality researchers in Germany. Several large scale data sets have been made available through the research data centers: the micro-censuses of the 1970s and 1980s, the censuses of the GDR and FRG, the micro-census panel, data from the pension registers, individual level data from the vital statistics, and the central foreigner registers have become available for scientific usage. Vital statistics have been reformed, and the micro-census now includes information on number of children ever born. Despite these improvements, there are still some “weak spots” in Germany’s data infrastructure. Germany is lacking official counts of reconstituted families. We know little about the mortality risks of immigrants. In addition, the data infrastructure for studying the socio-economic differences in mortality risks could be improved, thus enabling Germany to catch up with international developments in this area. This paper concludes by making some suggestions for improving the data available.
Until 2008, German vital statistics has not provided information on biological birth order. We have tried to close part of this gap by providing order-specific fertility rates generated from Perinatal Statistics and statistics on out-of-hospital births for the period 2001-2008. This investigation has been published in Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) (see Kreyenfeld, Scholz, Peters and Wlosnewski 2010). The CPoS-paper describes how data from the Perinatal Statistics and statistics on out-of-hospital births can be used to estimate order-specific fertility rates. The main purpose of this Technical Report is to make available the original birth counts, which were used in the study published in CPoS. Furthermore, we provide additional background information on the data sources in this report.