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Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to Support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures.
The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following order: first, fire part (maximum heat release rate); second, evacuation part (maximum preevacuation time); and, third, frequency part (specific frequency of fire). The plausibility of These results is discussed with view to experiences from experimental studies and past fire incidents.
Conclusively, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis.
Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis.
To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac.
To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering.
Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies.
A probabilistic approach for finite element analysis (FEA) for tunnel linings exposed to the nominal fire is presented. The probabilistic FEA accounted for the uncertainties distributions tied to the conductivity and specific heat as well as of the compressive strength, tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and ultimate strain in compression. To get an understanding on the influence of different probability density functions on the distribution of maximum displacements of the tunnel lining, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Four sets of FEAs were carried out with different probability distributions of the conductivity, the specific heat, and the compressive strength of the concrete, respectively. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters which describe each analysis case. A reliability analysis was executed considering a limit state function based on the temperature-dependent ultimate strain. The results show that, depending on the distribution adopted, the standard deviation of the maximum displacements can vary up to 47,4% of the minimum standard deviation. The large standard deviation is associated with the possibility of a greater displacement and, hence, to a structure more vulnerable to fire.
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology based on the thermo-mechanical finite elements analysis to investigate the impact of the variability of the thermal properties of the concrete in the fire safety of structures. This is meant to evaluate if characteristic values or safety factors for the conductivity and specific heat are required during the semi-probabilistic structural fire safety assessment. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, this work includes a case-study with a tunnel lining which considers the uncertainties related to the thermal and mechanical properties of the concrete, the soil load, and the temperatures described by the standard temperature-time curve. Two failure criteria are considered: one was the maximum temperature of 300 °C at the reinforcement and the other based on the temperature-dependent strength as provided in the Eurocode EN 1992-1-2. Several finite element analyses are performed. The design of experiments is executed by a Correlation Latin Hypercube Sampling. The calculated probability of failure has different values depending on the adopted failure criteria. A sensitivity analysis using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was carried out and demonstrates that the uncertainty related to the specific heat has the greatest impact on the results.
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology based on the thermo-mechanical finite elements analysis to investigate the impact of the variability of the thermal properties of the concrete in the fire safety of structures. This is meant to evaluate if characteristic values or safety factors for the conductivity and specific heat are
required during the semi-probabilistic structural fire safety assessment. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, this work includes a case-study with a tunnel lining which considers the uncertainties related to the thermal and mechanical properties of the concrete, the soil load, and the temperatures described by the
standard temperature-time curve. Two failure criteria are considered: one was the maximum temperature of 300 °C at the reinforcement and the other based on the temperature-dependent strength as provided in the Eurocode EN 1992-1-2. Several finite element analyses are performed. The design of experiments is executed by a Correlation Latin Hypercube Sampling. The calculated probability of failure has different values depending on the adopted failure criteria. A sensitivity analysis using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was carried out and demonstrates that the uncertainty related to the specific heat has the greatest impact on the results.
Probabilistic thermo-Mechanical analysis of a concrete tunnel lining subject to fire The probability distributions of the parameters related to the thermal analysis was considered in order to study the variability of the results and to carry out a reliability analysis. This assessment considered as random variables the thermo-mechanical properties of the concrete, the maximum heat release rate (HRR), the duration of the period of maximum HRR, the convective coefficient, the emissivity at the surface exposed to the fire, the air velocity within the tunnel, and the initial fire radius. The temperature-time curve was described by a correlation. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters to each analysis case. The definition of a limit state function based on the punctual strain status has permitted to carry out a reliability analysis.