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The reliability of deteriorating structures at time t is quantified by the probability that failure occurs within the period leading up to time t. This probability is often referred to as cumulative failure probability and is equal to the cumulative distribution function of the time to failure. In structural reliability, an estimate of the cumulative failure probability is obtained based on probabilistic Engineering models of the deterioration processes and structural performance. Information on the condition and the loading contained in inspection and monitoring data can be included in the probability estimate through Bayesian updating. Conditioning the
probability of failure on the inspection or monitoring outcomes available at time t (e.g. detections or no detection of damages) can lead to a reduction in that probability.
Such a drop in the cumulative failure probability might seem counterintuitive since the cumulative failure probability is a non-decreasing function of time. In this paper, we illustrate—with the help of a numerical example—that such a drop is possible because the cumulative probability before and after the updating is not based on the same information, hence not on the same probabilistic model.
The Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) collaborates with TNO to develop a software framework for automated calibration of structural models based on monitoring data. The ultimate goal is to include such models in the asset management process of engineering structures. As a basis for developing the framework, a multi-span road bridge consisting of ten simply supported steel box girders was selected as a test case. Our group measured output-only vibration data from one box girder under ambient conditions. From the data, we determined eigenfrequencies and mode shapes. In parallel, we developed a preliminary structural model of the box girder for the purpose of predicting its modal properties. In this contribution, we provide an overview of the measurement campaign, the operational modal analysis, the structural modeling and qualitatively compare the identified with the predicted modes. As an outlook, we discuss the further steps in the calibration process and future applications of the calibrated model.
Brücken werden durch Inspektionen und teilweise durch Monitoring überwacht, um Daten und Informationen über den Zustand und die Einwirkungen zu sammeln. Auf deren Grundlage werden Entscheidungen hinsichtlich Maßnahmen zur Gewährleistung der Sicherheit und Verfügbarkeit getroffen. In diesem Vortrag werden die Potentiale der Digitalisierung zur Unterstützung und Verbesserung der Brückenüberwachung diskutiert. Insbesondere werden die Bereiche Datenmanagement, Brückenmodellierung und Entscheidungsfindung betrachtet.
The EU member states have set out ambitious long-term goals for deploying offshore wind energy. The installed offshore wind capacity is set to increase from 14.6 GW in 2021 to around 320 GW in 2050. This signifies the role of offshore wind energy as a major contributor to reaching the EU’s climate and energy goals. To ensure that the defined targets are met, a significant number of new wind farms has to be installed and existing wind farms reaching the end of their planned life need to be reused efficiently. Some of the relevant reuse alternatives are lifetime extension, repowering based on the existing support structures and repowering with new turbines.
As a basis of the decision-making regarding the reuse of existing offshore wind farm, the expected utility of each relevant option should be determined based on the associated expected rewards, costs and risks. The optimal concept maximizes the utility of the decision-maker and fulfills the existing constraints and requirements. To facilitate such a quantitative decision-making, models and methods have to be developed. In particular, models are required that enable predictions of (a) the condition and performance of the turbines and support structures and (b) the renumeration, costs and consequences of adverse events. These predictions have to consider (a) the governing uncertainties, (b) the available information from the planning, construction, installation and operating phase, (b) potential repair, retrofitting and strengthening schemes and (c) possible monitoring, inspection and maintenance regimes for the future operating phase.
Over the past years, several models, methods and tools have been developed at the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) to support the structural integrity management of offshore wind turbine substructures. These include:
(a) a prototype for reliability-based, system-wide, adaptive planning of inspections of welded steel structures in offshore wind farms,
(b) a method for monitoring and risk-informed optimization of inspection and maintenance strategies for jacket structures subject to fatigue, and
(c) a probabilistic cost model of inspection and maintenance of welded steel structures in offshore wind farms.
This contribution provides an overview on these works and discusses how they can be adapted and extended to support the decision-making regarding lifetime extensions and repowering of offshore wind farms.
Managing aging engineering structures requires damage identification, capacity reassessment, and prediction of remaining service life. Data from structural health monitoring (SHM) systems can be utilized to detect and characterize potential damage. However, environmental and operational variations impair the identification of damages from SHM data. Motivated by this, we introduce a Bayesian probabilistic framework for building models and identifying damage in monitored structures subject to environmental variability. The novelty of our work lies (a) in explicitly considering the effect of environmental influences and potential structural damages in the modeling to enable more accurate damage identification and (b) in proposing a methodological workflow for model‐based structural health monitoring that leverages model class selection for model building and damage identification. The framework is applied to a progressively damaged reinforced concrete beam subject to temperature variations in a climate chamber. Based on deflections and inclinations measured during diagnostic load tests of the undamaged structure, the most appropriate modeling approach for describing the temperature‐dependent behavior of the undamaged beam is identified. In the damaged state, damage is characterized based on the identified model parameters. The location and extent of the identified damage are consistent with the cracks observed in the laboratory. A numerical study with synthetic data is used to validate the parameter identification. The known true parameters lie within the 90% highest density intervals of the posterior distributions of the model parameters, suggesting that this approach is reliable for parameter identification. Our results indicate that the proposed framework can answer the question of damage identification under environmental variations. These findings show a way forward in integrating SHM data into the management of infrastructures.
The Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) collaborates with TNO to develop a software framework for automated calibration of structural models based on monitoring data. The ultimate goal is to include such models in the asset management process of engineering structures. As a basis for developing the framework, a multi-span road bridge consisting of ten simply supported steel box girders was selected as a test case. Our group measured output-only vibration data from one box girder under ambient conditions. From the data, we determined eigenfrequencies and mode shapes. In parallel, we developed a preliminary structural model of the box girder for the purpose of predicting its modal properties. In this contribution, we provide an overview of the measurement campaign, the operational modal analysis, the structural modeling and qualitatively compare the identified with the predicted modes. As an outlook, we discuss the further steps in the calibration process and future applications of the calibrated model.