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18-03
We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive model is approximated using a cheaper stochastic surrogate, as in Gaussian process emulation (kriging), or in the field of probabilistic numerical methods. We show that the Hellinger distance between the exact and approximate Bayesian posteriors is bounded by moments of the difference between the true and approximate log-likelihoods. Example applications of these stability results are given for randomised misfit models in large data applications and the probabilistic solution of ordinary differential equations.
18-10
Mathematical models for bioregulatory networks can be based on different formalisms, depending on the quality of available data and the research question to be answered. Discrete boolean models can be constructed based on qualitative data, which are frequently available. On the other hand, continuous models in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can incorporate time-series data and give more detailed insight into the dynamics of the underlying system. A few years ago, a method based on multivariate polynomial interpolation and Hill functions has been developed for an automatic conversion of boolean models to systems of ordinary differential equations. This method is frequently used by modellers in systems biology today, but there are only a few results available about the conservation of mathematical structures and properties across the formalisms. Here, we consider subsets of the phase space where some components stay fixed, called trap spaces, and demonstrate how boolean trap spaces can be linked to invariant sets in the continuous state space. This knowledge is of practical relevance since finding trap spaces in the boolean setting, which is relatively easy, allows for the construction of reduced ODE models.
18-08
Estimation of time of death based on a single measurement of body
core temperature is a standard procedure in forensic medicine.
Mechanistic models using simulation of heat transport promise
higher accuracy than established phenomenological models in
particular in nonstandard situations, but involve many not exactly
known physical parameters. Identifying both time of death and
physical parameters from multiple temperature measurements is
one possibility to reduce the uncertainty significantly.
In this paper, we consider the inverse problem in a Bayesian setting
and perform both local and sampling-based uncertainty
quantification, where proper orthogonal decomposition is used as
model reduction for fast solution of the forward model. Based on
the local uncertainty quantification, optimal design of experiments
is performed in order to minimize the uncertainty in the time of
death estimate for a given number of measurements. For reasons
of practicability, temperature acquisition points are selected from
a set of candidates in different spatial and temporal locations.
Applied to a real corpse model, a significant accuracy improvement
is obtained already with a small number of measurements.
18-52
Gene Regulatory Networks are powerful models for describing the mechanisms and dynamics inside a cell. These networks are generally large in dimension and seldom yield analytical formulations. It was shown that studying the conditional expectations between dimensions (vertices or species) of a network could lead to drastic dimension reduction. These conditional expectations were classically given by solving equations of motions derived from the Chemical Master Equation. In this paper we deviate from this convention and take an Algebraic approach instead. That is, we explore the consequences of conditional expectations being described by a polynomial function. There are two main results in this work. Firstly: if the conditional expectation can be described by a polynomial function, then coefficients of this polynomial function can be reconstructed using the classical moments. And secondly: there are dimensions in Gene Regulatory Networks which inherently have conditional expectations with algebraic forms. We demonstrate through examples, that the theory derived in this work can be used to develop new and effective numerical schemes for forward simulation and parameter inference. The algebraic line of investigation of conditional expectations has considerable scope to be applied to many different aspects of Gene Regulatory Networks; this paper serves as a preliminary commentary in this direction.
18-54
The paper investigates the efficient use of a linearly implicit stiff integrator for the numerical solution of density driven flow problems. Upon choosing a one-step method of extrapolation type (code LIMEX), the use of full Jacobians and reduced approximations are discussed. Numerical experiments include nonlinear density flow problems such as diffusion from a salt dome (2D), a (modified) Elder problem (3D), the saltpool benchmark (3D) and a real life salt dome problem (2D). The arising linear equations are solved using either a multigrid preconditioner from the software package UG4 or the sparse matrix solver SuperLU.
18-48
Spectral clustering methods are based on solving eigenvalue problems for the identification of clusters, e.g. the identification of metastable subsets of a Markov chain. Usually, real-valued eigenvectors are mandatory for this type of algorithms. The Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) is a well-known spectral clustering method of Markov chains. It is applicable for reversible Markov chains, because reversibility implies a real-valued spectrum. We also extend this spectral clustering method to non-reversible Markov chains and give some illustrative examples. The main idea is to replace the eigenvalue problem by a real-valued Schur decomposition. By this extension non-reversible Markov chains can be analyzed. Furthermore, the chains do not need to have a positive stationary distribution. In addition to metastabilities, dominant cycles and sinks can also be identified. This novel method is called GenPCCA (i.e.
Generalized PCCA), since it includes the case of non reversible processes.
We also apply the method to real world eye tracking data.