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Institute
In many applications one is interested to compute transition probabilities of a Markov chain.
This can be achieved by using Monte Carlo methods with local or global sampling points.
In this article, we analyze the error by the difference in the $L^2$ norm between the true transition probabilities and the approximation
achieved through a Monte Carlo method.
We give a formula for the error for Markov chains with locally computed sampling points. Further, in the case of reversible Markov chains, we will deduce a formula for the error when sampling points are computed globally.
We will see that in both cases the error itself can be approximated with Monte Carlo methods.
As a consequence of the result, we will derive surprising properties of reversible Markov chains.
In many applications one is interested to compute transition probabilities of a Markov chain.
This can be achieved by using Monte Carlo methods with local or global sampling points.
In this article, we analyze the error by the difference in the $L^2$ norm between the true transition probabilities and the approximation
achieved through a Monte Carlo method.
We give a formula for the error for Markov chains with locally computed sampling points. Further, in the case of reversible Markov chains, we will deduce a formula for the error when sampling points are computed globally.
We will see that in both cases the error itself can be approximated with Monte Carlo methods.
As a consequence of the result, we will derive surprising properties of reversible Markov chains.
Finding metastable sets as dominant structures of Markov processes has been shown to be especially useful in modeling interesting slow dynamics of various real world complex processes. Furthermore, coarse graining of such processes based on their dominant structures leads to better understanding and dimension reduction of observed systems. However, in many cases, e.g. for nonreversible Markov processes, dominant structures are often not formed by metastable sets but by important cycles or mixture of both. This paper aims at understanding and identifying these different types of dominant structures for reversible as well as nonreversible ergodic Markov processes. Our algorithmic approach generalizes spectral based methods for reversible process by using Schur decomposition techniques which can tackle also nonreversible cases. We illustrate the mathematical construction of our new approach by numerical experiments.
Reversible Markov chains are the basis of many applications. However, computing transition probabilities by a finite sampling of a Markov chain can lead to truncation errors. Even if the original Markov chain is reversible, the approximated Markov chain might be non-reversible and will lose important properties, like the real valued spectrum. In this paper, we show how to find the closest reversible Markov chain to a given transition matrix. It turns out that this matrix can be computed by solving a convex minimization problem.
Reversible Markov chains are the basis of many applications. However, computing transition probabilities by a finite sampling of a Markov chain can lead to truncation errors. Even if the original Markov chain is reversible, the approximated Markov chain might be non-reversible and will lose important properties, like the real valued spectrum. In this paper, we show how to find the closest reversible Markov chain to a given transition matrix. It turns out that this matrix can be computed by solving a convex minimization problem.
Markov Model Theory
(2014)
This section reviews the relation between the continuous dynamics of a molecular system in thermal equilibrium and the kinetics given by a Markov State Model (MSM). We will introduce the dynamical propagator, an error-less, alternative description of the continuous dynamics, and show how MSMs result from its discretization. This allows for an precise understanding of the approximation quality of MSMs in comparison to the continuous dynamics. The results on the approximation quality are key for the design of good MSMs. While this section is important for understanding the theory of discretization and related systematic errors, practitioners wishing only to learn how to construct MSMs may skip directly to the discussion of Markov model estimation.
The rebinding effect is a phenomenon which occurs when observing a ligand-receptor binding process. On the macro scale this process comprises the Markov property. This Makovian view is spoiled when switching to the atomistic scale of a binding process. We therefore suggest a model which accurately describes the rebinding effect on the atomistic scale by allowing ''intermediate'' bound states. This allows us to define an indicator for the magnitude of rebinding and to formulate an optimization problem. The results form our examples show good agreement with data form laboratory.
In recent years Markov State Models (MSMs) have attracted a consid-
erable amount of attention with regard to modelling conformation changes and associated function of biomolecular systems. They have been used successfully, e.g., for peptides including time-resolved spectroscopic experiments, protein function and protein folding , DNA and RNA, and ligand-receptor interaction in drug design and more complicated multivalent scenarios. In this article a novel reweighting scheme is introduced that allows to construct an MSM for certain molecular system out of an MSM for a similar system. This permits studying how molecular properties on long timescales differ between similar molecular systems without performing full molecular dynamics simulations for each system under con-
sideration. The performance of the reweighting scheme is illustrated for simple test cases including one where the main wells of the respective energy landscapes are located differently and an alchemical transformation of butane to pentane where the dimension of the state space is changed.
Von Femtosekunden zu Minuten
(2012)
Fuzzy spectral clustering by PCCA+: application to Markov state models and data classification
(2013)
We introduce a generalized operator for arbitrary stochastic processes by using a pre-kernel, which is a generalization of the Markov kernel. For deterministic processes, such an operator is already known as the Frobenius-Perron operator, which is defined for a large class of measures. For Markov processes, there exists transfer operators being only well defined for stationary measures in $L^2$. Our novel generalized transfer operator is well defined for arbitrary stochastic processes, in particular also for deterministic ones. We can show that this operator is acting on $L^1$. For stationary measures, this operator is also an endomorphism of $L^2$ and, therefore, allows for a mathematical analysis in Hilbert spaces.
Obtaining a sufficient sampling of conformational space is a common problem in molecular simulation. We present the implementation of an umbrella-like adaptive sampling approach based on function-based meshless discretization of conformational space that is compatible with state of the art molecular dynamics code and that integrates an eigenvector-based clustering approach for conformational analysis and the computation of inter-conformational transition rates. The approach is applied to three example systems, namely n-pentane, alanine dipeptide, and a small synthetic host-guest system, the latter two including explicitly modeled solvent.
Trajectory- or mesh-based methods for analyzing the dynamical behavior of large molecules tend to be impractical due to the curse of dimensionality - their computational cost increases exponentially with the size of the molecule. We propose a method to break the curse by a novel square root approximation of transition rates, Monte Carlo quadrature and a discretization approach based on solving linear programs. With randomly sampled points on the molecular energy landscape and randomly generated discretizations of the molecular configuration space as our initial data, we construct a matrix describing the transition rates between adjacent discretization regions. This transition rate matrix yields a Markov State Model of the molecular dynamics. We use Perron cluster analysis and coarse-graining techniques in order to identify metastable sets in configuration space and approximate the transition rates between the metastable sets. Application of our method to a simple energy landscape on a two-dimensional configuration space provides proof of concept and an example for which we compare the performance of different discretizations. We show that the computational cost of our method grows only polynomially with the size of the molecule. However, finding discretizations of higher-dimensional configuration spaces in which metastable sets can be identified remains a challenge.