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Various feature selection algorithms have been proposed to identify cancer prognostic biomarkers. In recent years, however, their reproducibility is criticized. The performance of feature selection algorithms is shown to be affected by the datasets, underlying networks and evaluation metrics. One of the causes is the curse of dimensionality, which makes it hard to select the features that generalize well on independent data. Even the integration of biological networks does not mitigate this issue because the networks are large and many of their components are not relevant for the phenotype of interest. With the availability of multi-omics data, integrative approaches are being developed to build more robust predictive models. In this scenario, the higher data dimensions create greater challenges. We proposed a phenotype relevant network-based feature selection (PRNFS) framework and demonstrated its advantages in lung cancer prognosis prediction. We constructed cancer prognosis relevant networks based on epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and integrated them with different types of omics data for feature selection. With less than 2.5% of the total dimensionality, we obtained EMT prognostic signatures that achieved remarkable prediction performance (average AUC values above 0.8), very significant sample stratifications, and meaningful biological interpretations. In addition to finding EMT signatures from different omics data levels, we combined these single-omics signatures into multi-omics signatures, which improved sample stratifications significantly. Both single- and multi-omics EMT signatures were tested on independent multi-omics lung cancer datasets and significant sample stratifications were obtained.
Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss
The Augmented Jump Chain
(2021)
Modern methods of simulating molecular systems are based on the mathematical theory of Markov operators with a focus on autonomous equilibrated systems. However, non-autonomous physical systems or non-autonomous simulation processes are becoming more and more important. A representation of non-autonomous Markov jump processes is presented as autonomous Markov chains on space-time. Augmenting the spatial information of the embedded Markov chain by the temporal information of the associated jump times, the so-called augmented jump chain is derived. The augmented jump chain inherits the sparseness of the infinitesimal generator of the original process and therefore provides a useful tool for studying time-dependent dynamics even in high dimensions. Furthermore, possible generalizations and applications to the computation of committor functions and coherent sets in the non-autonomous setting are discussed. After deriving the theoretical foundations, the concepts with a proof-of-concept Galerkin discretization of the transfer operator of the augmented jump chain applied to simple examples are illustrated.
The urea-urease clock reaction is a pH switch from acid to basic that can turn into a pH oscillator if it occurs inside a suitable open reactor. We numerically study the confinement of the reaction to lipid vesicles, which permit the exchange with an external reservoir by differential transport, enabling the recovery of the pH level and yielding a constant supply of urea molecules. For microscopically small vesicles, the discreteness of the number of molecules requires a stochastic treatment of the reaction dynamics. Our analysis shows that intrinsic noise induces a significant statistical variation of the oscillation period, which increases as the vesicles become smaller.
The mean period, however, is found to be remarkably robust for vesicle sizes down to approximately 200 nm, but the periodicity of the rhythm is gradually destroyed for smaller vesicles. The observed oscillations are explained as a canard-like limit cycle that differs from the wide class of conventional feedback oscillators.
Due to the increase in accessibility and robustness of sequencing technology, single cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) data has become abundant. The technology has made significant contributions to discovering novel phenotypes and heterogeneities of cells. Recently, there has been a push for using single-- or multiple scRNA-seq snapshots to infer the underlying gene regulatory networks (GRNs) steering the cells' biological functions. To date, this aspiration remains unrealised.
In this paper, we took a bottom-up approach and curated a stochastic two gene interaction model capturing the dynamics of a complete system of genes, mRNAs, and proteins. In the model, the regulation was placed upstream from the mRNA on the gene level. We then inferred the underlying regulatory interactions from only the observation of the mRNA population through~time.
We could detect signatures of the regulation by combining information of the mean, covariance, and the skewness of the mRNA counts through time. We also saw that reordering the observations using pseudo-time did not conserve the covariance and skewness of the true time course. The underlying GRN could be captured consistently when we fitted the moments up to degree three; however, this required a computationally expensive non-linear least squares minimisation solver.
There are still major numerical challenges to overcome for inference of GRNs from scRNA-seq data. These challenges entail finding informative summary statistics of the data which capture the critical regulatory information. Furthermore, the statistics have to evolve linearly or piece-wise linearly through time to achieve computational feasibility and scalability.
We previously reported the successful design, synthesis and testing of the prototype opioid painkiller NFEPP that does not elicit adverse side effects. The design process of NFEPP was based on mathematical modelling of extracellular interactions between G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) and ligands, recognizing that GPCRs function differently under pathological versus healthy conditions. We now present an additional and novel stochastic model of GPCR function that includes intracellular dissociation of G-protein subunits and modulation of plasma membrane calcium channels and their dependence on parameters of inflamed and healthy tissue (pH, radicals). The model is validated against in vitro experimental data for the ligands NFEPP and fentanyl at different pH values and radical concentrations. We observe markedly reduced binding affinity and calcium channel inhibition for NFEPP at normal pH compared to lower pH, in contrast to the effect of fentanyl. For increasing radical concentrations, we find enhanced constitutive G-protein activation but reduced ligand binding affinity. Assessing the different effects, the results suggest that, compared to radicals, low pH is a more important determinant of overall GPCR function in an inflamed environment. Future drug design efforts should take this into account.
In the framework of time series analysis with recurrence networks, we introduce a self-adaptive method that determines the elusive recurrence threshold and identifies metastable states in complex real-world time series. As initial step, we introduce a way to set the embedding parameters used to reconstruct the state space from the time series. We set them as the ones giving the maximum Shannon entropy of the diagonal line length distribution for the first simultaneous minima of recurrence rate and Shannon entropy. To identify metastable states, as well as the transitions between them, we use a soft partitioning algorithm for module finding which is specifically developed for the case in which a system shows metastability. We illustrate our method with a complex time series example. Finally, we show the robustness of our method for identifying metastable states. Our results suggest that our method is robust for identifying metastable states in complex time series, even when introducing considerable levels of noise and missing data points.
SAIMeR: Self-adapted method for the identification of metastable states in real-world time series
(2014)
In the framework of time series analysis with recurrence networks, we introduce SAIMeR, a heuristic self-adapted method that determines the elusive recurrence threshold and identifies metastable states in complex time series. To identify metastable states as well as the transitions between them, we use graph theory concepts and a fuzzy partitioning clustering algorithm. We illustrate SAIMeR by applying it to three real-world time series and show that it is able to identify metastable states in real-world data with noise and missing data points. Finally, we suggest a way to choose the embedding parameters used to construct the state space in which this method is performed, based on the analysis of how the values of these parameters affect two recurrence quantitative measurements: recurrence rate and entropy.
The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the waiting time distributions are non-exponential. In the particular case that the jump processes are both Markovian and ergodic, our analysis elucidates the relations between the study of the first passage paths and the study of the transition paths in transition path theory. We provide algorithms to numerically compute statistics of the first passage path ensemble. The computational complexity of these algorithms scales with the complexity of solving a linear system, for which efficient methods are available. Several examples demonstrate the wide applicability of the derived results across research areas.
Linear response theory and optimal control for a molecular system under nonequilibrium conditions
(2013)
In this paper, we propose a straightforward generalization of linear
response theory to systems in nonequilibrium that are subject to
nonequilibrium driving. We briefly revisit the standard linear response
result for equilibrium systems, where we consider Langevin dynamics
as a special case, and then give an alternative derivation using a
change-of-measure argument that does not rely on any stationarity or
reversibility assumption. This procedure moreover easily enables us
to calculate the second order correction to the linear response formula
(which may or may not be useful in practice). Furthermore, we outline
how the novel nonequilibirum linear response formula can be used to
compute optimal controls of molecular systems for cases in which one
wants to steer the system to maximize a certain target expectation
value. We illustrate our approach with simple numerical examples.
Linear response theory and optimal control for a molecular system under nonequilibrium conditions
(2013)
Grand-canonical-like molecular-dynamics simulations by using an adaptive-resolution technique
(2013)
Recent years have seen an increased interest in non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations, especially for molecular systems with periodic forcing by external fields, e.g., in the context of studying effects of electromagnetic radiation on the human body tissue. Lately, an NEMD methods with local thermostating has been proposed that allows for studying non-equilibrium processes in a statistically reliable and thermodynamically consistent way. In this article, we demonstrate how to construct Markov State Models (MSMs) for such NEMD simulations. MSM building has been well-established for systems in equilibrium where MSMs with just a few (macro-)states allow for accurate reproduction of the essential kinetics of the molecular system under consideration. Non-equilibrium MSMs have been lacking so far. The article presents how to construct such MSMs and illustrates their validity and usefulness for the case of conformation dynamics of alanine dipeptide in an external electric field.
In this paper, we investigate the conformational dynamics of alanine dipeptide under an external electric field by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation. We consider the case of a constant and of an oscillatory field. In this context, we propose a procedure to implement the temperature control, which removes the irrelevant thermal effects of the field. For the constant field different time-scales are identified in the conformational, dipole moment, and orientational dynamics. Moreover, we prove that the solvent structure only marginally changes when the external field is switched on. In the case of oscillatory field, the conformational changes are shown to be as strong as in the previous case, and nontrivial nonequilibrium circular paths in the conformation space are revealed by calculating the integrated net probability fluxes.