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E.ON SE intends to acquire Innogy SE from its competitor RWE AG based on a comprehensive exchange of business activities. The acquisition was announced in the first quarter of 2018 and is expected to be finalized late 2019. Next key milestones are the closing of a public takeover offer to minority shareholders and the approval of relevant antitrust and regulatory authorities. On the one hand, the merger will directly affect existing structures in the German energy market, helping both companies, E.ON and RWE, to significantly strengthen their respective core businesses. On the other hand, however, potential disadvantaged parties include Innogy itself, employees, municipalities and end customers.
At the beginning of their career civil servants in Germany can choose between the social health insurance (SHI) system and a private plan combined with a direct reimbursement of the government of up to 70 percent. Most civil servants chose the latter, not only but also because they have to cover all contribution payments in the social system themselves, while normal employees get nearly 50 percent from their employers. The city state of Hamburg decided to change the system by paying a share of the contributions if civil servants choose the social plan. We use a stochastic microsimulation model to analyse which socio-economic types of civil servants could benefit from the Hamburg plan and if this changes the mix of insured persons in the SHI system. Our results show that low income and high morbidity types as well as families have a substantially higher incentive to choose SHI. This reform might thereby increase the adverse selection of high risk cases towards SHI.
Gone with the windfall
(2018)
Due to the debate about the generosity of LTC insurance benefits the German government decided to increase benefits and widen the circle of LTC beneficiaries with the Second LTC Strengthening Act. In this paper, we evaluate the long-term implications of this recent reform for the German LTC insurance scheme. Using the framework of generational accounting we show that the reform has led to a widening of the short-term gap between revenues and expenditure and that the LTC insurance is not sustainably financed, neither pre- nor post-reform. By the early 2020s there will be fiscal pressure for further reforms. From an intergenerational perspective, the reform can be seen as a windfall to current beneficiaries increasing the intergenerational redistribution through the pay-as-you-go system.
This paper examines the recession probabilities for the Eurozone along four different dimensions: First, we identify the best performing indicators for a recession within the next 12 months based on 43 underlying single variables and their different transformations in a benchmark model. We find that a modified version of the yield curve incorporating the shadow interest rate removes the downward rigidity of the front-leg and restores part of the informational content of the term spread at the zero lower bound. However, the best performing single indicator of the benchmark model is Real M1 followed by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the investment grade corporate bond spread and the Terms of Trade. Second, the paper establishes three submodels to increase the lead-time and the stability of recession models: (i) Monetary transmission channels via principal component analysis; (ii) Bivariate regressions to identify paramount combinations; (iii) Unstable surges vis-à-vis the Hodrick-Prescott trend to detect animal spirits and hawkish mistakes. Third, the analysis is extended over various forecasting horizons (6m, 18m and 24m). Fourth, the results are analyzed from the perspective of risk-affine and risk-averse investors.
This paper develops techniques of estimation and inference in a prototypical macroeconomic adaptive learning model with slowly decreasing gains. A sequential three-step procedure based on a `super-consistent' estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter is proposed. It is shown that this procedure is asymptotically equivalent to first estimating the structural parameters jointly via ordinary least-squares (OLS) and then using the so-obtained estimates to form a plug-in estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter. In spite of failing Grenander's conditions for well-behaved data, a limiting normal distribution of the estimators centered at the true parameters is derived. Although this distribution is singular, it can nevertheless be used to draw inferences about joint restrictions by applying results from Andrews (1987) to show that Wald-type statistics remain valid when equipped with a pseudo-inverse. Monte-Carlo evidence confirms the accuracy of the asymptotic theory for the finite sample behaviour of estimators and test statistics discussed here.