The search result changed since you submitted your search request. Documents might be displayed in a different sort order.
  • search hit 18 of 3710
Back to Result List

Better than Perceived? Correcting Misperceptions about Central Bank Inflation Forecasts

  • How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total $N=9500$), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation target as more credible, the ECB's communication as more honest, and the ECB's policy as more beneficial to them. Finally, the causal effect of central bank trust on inflation expectations is quantified using instruments to deal with endogeneity.

Download full text files

Export metadata

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Author(s):Muhammed Bulutay
Parent Title (English):Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers
Publication year:2024
Publishing Institution:Hertie School
Number pages:33
Related URL:https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers
DOI:https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5355
Release Date:2024/03/13
Edition:No. 34
Hertie School Research:BerlinSchoolOfEcon_Discussion_Papers
Licence of document (German):Creative Commons - CC BY - 4.0 International
Verstanden ✔
Diese Webseite verwendet technisch erforderliche Session-Cookies. Durch die weitere Nutzung der Webseite stimmen Sie diesem zu. Unsere Datenschutzerklärung finden Sie hier.