Insights into Flood Risk Misperceptions of Homeowners in the Dutch River Delta

  • Flooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take-up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that can be avoided by damage reduction measures. The aim of this article is to assess possible flood risk misperceptions of floodplain residents in the Netherlands, and to offer insights into factors that are related with under- or overestimation of perceived flood risk. We analyzed survey data of 1,848 homeowners in the Dutch river delta and examine how perceptions of flood probability and damage relate to objective risk assessments, such as safety standards of dikes, as well as heuristics, including the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic. Results show that many Dutch floodplain inhabitants significantly overestimate the probability, but underestimate the maximum expected waterFlooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take-up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that can be avoided by damage reduction measures. The aim of this article is to assess possible flood risk misperceptions of floodplain residents in the Netherlands, and to offer insights into factors that are related with under- or overestimation of perceived flood risk. We analyzed survey data of 1,848 homeowners in the Dutch river delta and examine how perceptions of flood probability and damage relate to objective risk assessments, such as safety standards of dikes, as well as heuristics, including the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic. Results show that many Dutch floodplain inhabitants significantly overestimate the probability, but underestimate the maximum expected water level of a flood. We further observe that many respondents apply the availability heuristic.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Jantsje M. MolORCiD, Wouter BotzenORCiD, Julia BlaschORCiD, Hans de Moel
Language:English
Document Type:Article
Year of first Publication:2020
published in (English):Risk Analysis
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
Place of publication:Oxford
ISSN:1539-6924
Volume:40
Issue:7
First Page:1450
Last Page:1468
Review:peer-review
Open Access:ja
Version:published
Tag:Affect heuristic; availability heuristic; flood preparedness; objective risk; risk perception
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-21290
Related Identifier:https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13479
Licence (German):License Logo Creative Commons BY 4.0
Release Date:2022/03/24