Conrad, Tim
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Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available.
Aims: Interpretation of continuous EEG is a demanding task that requires the expertise of trained neurologists. However, these experts are not always available in many medical centers. As part of the 2023 George B. Moody PhysioNet Challenge, we developed a deep learning based method for analyzing EEG data of comatose patients and predicting prognosis following cardiac arrest. Methods: Our approach is a two-step pipeline that consists of a prediction model and a decision-making strategy. The prediction model is a residual neural network (ResNet-18) that extracts features and makes a prediction based on a short 5-minute EEG recording. In the second step, a majority vote over multiple predictions made for several EEG recordings of a patient determines the final prognosis. Results: Based on 10-fold cross-validation on the training set, we achieved a true positive rate (TPR) of 0.41 for predicting poor outcome while keeping the false positive rate below 0.05 at 72 hours after recovery of spontaneous circulation. On the official challenge leaderboard, our team ZIB_Visual scored 0.426 TPR. Conclusion: Our approach, while simple to implement and execute, faced overfitting challenges during the official competition phase. In this paper, we discuss our implementation and potential improvements to address these issues.
Implantable Cardiac Monitor (ICM) devices are demonstrating as of today, the fastest-growing market for implantable cardiac devices. As such, they are becoming increasingly common in patients for measuring heart electrical activity. ICMs constantly monitor and record a patient's heart rhythm and when triggered - send it to a secure server where health care professionals (denote HCPs from here on) can review it. These devices employ a relatively simplistic rule-based algorithm (due to energy consumption constraints) to alert for abnormal heart rhythms. This algorithm is usually parameterized to an over-sensitive mode in order to not miss a case (resulting in a relatively high false-positive rate) and this, combined with the device's nature of constantly monitoring the heart rhythm and its growing popularity, results in HCPs having to analyze and diagnose an increasingly growing amount of data. In order to reduce the load on the latter, automated methods for ECG analysis are nowadays becoming a great tool to assist HCPs in their analysis. While state-of-the-art algorithms are data-driven rather than rule-based, training data for ICMs often consist of specific characteristics that make its analysis unique and particularly challenging. This study presents the challenges and solutions in automatically analyzing ICM data and introduces a method for its classification that outperforms existing methods on such data. It does so by combining high-frequency noise detection (which often occurs in ICM data) with a semi-supervised learning pipeline that allows for re-labeling of training episodes, and by using segmentation and dimension reduction techniques that are robust to morphology variations of the sECG signal (which are typical to ICM data). As a result, it performs better than state-of-the-art techniques on such data with e.g. F1 score of 0.51 vs. 0.38 of our baseline state-of-the-art technique in correctly calling Atrial Fibrilation in ICM data. As such, it could be used in numerous ways such as aiding HCPs in the analysis of ECGs originating from ICMs by, e.g., suggesting a rhythm type.
Mathematical world knowledge is a fundamental component of Wikidata. However, to date, no expertly curated knowledge graph has focused specifically on contemporary mathematics. Addressing this gap, the Mathematical Research Data Initiative (MaRDI) has developed a comprehensive knowledge graph that links multimodal research data in mathematics. This encompasses traditional research data items like datasets, software, and publications and includes semantically advanced objects such as mathematical formulae and hypotheses. This paper details the abilities of the MaRDI knowledge graph, which is based on Wikibase, leading up to its inaugural public release, codenamed Bravo, available on https://portal.mardi4nfdi.de.
Explicit modeling of antibody levels for infectious disease simulations in the context of SARS-CoV-2
(2023)
Measurable levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies develop after infections with and vaccinations against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These antibody levels are dynamic: due to waning, antibody levels will drop over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple models predicting infection dynamics were used by policymakers to support the planning of public health policies. Explicitly integrating antibody and waning effects into the models is crucial for reliable calculations of individual infection risk. However, only few approaches have been suggested that explicitly treat these effects. This paper presents a methodology that explicitly models antibody levels and the resulting protection against infection for individuals within an agent-based model. The model was developed in response to the complexity of different immunization sequences and types and is based on neutralization titer studies. This approach allows complex population studies with explicit antibody and waning effects. We demonstrate the usefulness of our model in two use cases.
Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir is an oral treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 cases with a high risk for a severe course of the disease. For this paper, a comprehensive literature review was performed, leading to a summary of currently available data on Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir’s ability to reduce the risk of progressing to a severe disease state. Herein, the focus lies on publications that include comparisons between patients receiving Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and a control group. The findings can be summarized as follows: Data from the time when the Delta-variant was dominant show that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 88.9% for unvaccinated, non-hospitalized high-risk individuals. Data from the time when the Omicron variant was dominant found decreased relative risk reductions for various vaccination statuses: between 26% and 65% for hospitalization. The presented papers that differentiate between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals agree that unvaccinated patients benefit more from treatment with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir. However, when it comes to the dependency of potential on age and comorbidities, further studies are necessary. From the available data, one can conclude that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir cannot substitute vaccinations; however, its low manufacturing cost and easy administration make it a valuable tool in fighting COVID-19, especially for countries with low vaccination rates.
Large-scale perturbations in the microbiome constitution are strongly correlated, whether as a driver or a consequence, with the health and functioning of human physiology. However, understanding the difference in the microbiome profiles of healthy and ill individuals can be complicated due to the large number of complex interactions among microbes. We propose to model these interactions as a time-evolving graph whose nodes are microbes and edges are interactions among them. Motivated by the need to analyse such complex interactions, we develop a method that learns a low-dimensional representation of the time-evolving graph and maintains the dynamics occurring in the high-dimensional space. Through our experiments, we show that we can extract graph features such as clusters of nodes or edges that have the highest impact on the model to learn the low-dimensional representation. This information can be crucial to identify microbes and interactions among them that are strongly correlated with clinical diseases. We conduct our experiments on both synthetic and real-world microbiome datasets.
The aim of Network Alignment in Protein-Protein Interaction Networks is discovering functionally similar regions between compared organisms. One major compromise for solving a network alignment problem is the trade-off among multiple similarity objectives while applying an alignment strategy. An alignment may lose its biological relevance while favoring certain objectives upon others due to the actual relevance of unfavored objectives. One possible solution for solving this issue may be blending the stronger aspects of various alignment strategies until achieving mature solutions. This study proposes a parallel approach called PERSONA that allows aligners to share their partial solutions continuously while they progress. All these aligners pursue their particular heuristics as part of a particle swarm that searches for multi-objective solutions of the same alignment problem in a reactive actor environment.
The actors use the stronger portion of a solution as a subgraph that they receive from leading or other actors and send their own stronger subgraphs back upon evaluation of those partial solutions. Moreover, the individual heuristics of each actor takes randomized parameter values at each cycle of parallel execution so that the problem search space can thoroughly be investigated. The results achieved with PERSONA are remarkably optimized and balanced for both topological and node similarity objectives.