Weiser, Martin
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Simulation-based digital twins must provide accurate, robust and reliable digital representations of their physical counterparts. Quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions plays, therefore, a key role in making better-informed decisions that impact the actual system. The update of the simulation model based on data must be then carefully implemented. When applied to complex standing structures such as bridges, discrepancies between the computational model and the real system appear as model bias, which hinders the trustworthiness of the digital twin and increases its uncertainty. Classical Bayesian updating approaches aiming to infer the model parameters often fail at compensating for such model bias, leading to overconfident and unreliable predictions. In this paper, two alternative model bias identification approaches are evaluated in the context of their applicability to digital twins of bridges. A modularized version of Kennedy and O'Hagan's approach and another one based on Orthogonal Gaussian Processes are compared with the classical Bayesian inference framework in a set of representative benchmarks. Additionally, two novel extensions are proposed for such models: the inclusion of noise-aware kernels and the introduction of additional variables not present in the computational model through the bias term. The integration of such approaches in the digital twin corrects the predictions, quantifies their uncertainty, estimates noise from unknown physical sources of error and provides further insight into the system by including additional pre-existing information without modifying the computational model.
This paper introduces a novel hybrid mathematical modeling approach that effectively couples Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), exemplified through the simulation of epidemiological processes. The hybrid model aims to integrate the spatially detailed representation of disease dynamics provided by PDEs with the computational efficiency of ODEs. In the presented epidemiological use-case, this integration allows for the rapid assessment of public health interventions and the potential impact of infectious diseases across large populations. We discuss the theoretical formulation of the hybrid PDE-ODE model, including the governing equations and boundary conditions. The model's capabilities are demonstrated through detailed simulations of disease spread in synthetic environments and real-world scenarios, specifically focusing on the regions of Lombardy, Italy, and Berlin, Germany. Results indicate that the hybrid model achieves a balance between computational speed and accuracy, making it a valuable tool for policymakers in real-time decision-making and scenario analysis in epidemiology and potentially in other fields requiring similar modeling approaches.
In recent years, the use of simulation-based digital twins for monitoring and assessment of complex mechanical systems has greatly expanded. Their potential to increase the information obtained from limited data makes them an invaluable tool for a broad range of real-world applications. Nonetheless, there usually exists a discrepancy between the predicted response and the measurements of the system once built. One of the main contributors to this difference in addition to miscalibrated model parameters is the model error. Quantifying this socalled model bias (as well as proper values for the model parameters) is critical for the reliable performance of digital twins. Model bias identification is ultimately an inverse problem where information from measurements is used to update the original model. Bayesian formulations can tackle this task. Including the model bias as a parameter to be inferred enables the use of a Bayesian framework to obtain a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty between the measurements and the model. Simultaneously, this procedure can be combined with a classic parameter updating scheme to account for the trainable parameters in the original model.
This study evaluates the effectiveness of different model bias identification approaches based on Bayesian inference methods. This includes more classical approaches such as direct parameter estimation using MCMC in a Bayesian setup, as well as more recent proposals such as stat-FEM or orthogonal Gaussian Processes. Their potential use in digital twins, generalization capabilities, and computational cost is extensively analyzed.
Simulation-based digital twins have emerged as a powerful tool for evaluating the mechanical response of bridges. As virtual representations of physical systems, digital twins can provide a wealth of information that complements traditional inspection and monitoring data. By incorporating virtual sensors and predictive maintenance strategies, they have the potential to improve our understanding of the behavior and performance of bridges over time. However, as bridges age and undergo regular loading and extreme events, their structural characteristics change, often differing from the predictions of their initial design. Digital twins must be continuously adapted to reflect these changes. In this article, we present a Bayesian framework for updating simulation-based digital twins in the context of bridges. Our approach integrates information from measurements to account for inaccuracies in the simulation model and quantify uncertainties. Through its implementation and assessment, this work demonstrates the potential for digital twins to provide a reliable and up-to-date representation of bridge behavior, helping to inform decision-making for maintenance and management.
We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on optimizing both the positioning and simulation accuracy of training data in order to reduce the computational cost of simulating training data without compromising the fidelity of the posterior distributions of parameters. The method interleaves a goal-oriented active learning algorithm selecting evaluation points and tolerances based on the expected impact on the Kullback-Leibler divergence of surrogated and true posterior with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior. The performance benefit of the adaptive approach is demonstrated for two simple test problems.
Generating simulated training data needed for constructing sufficiently accurate surrogate models to be used for efficient optimization or parameter identification can incur a huge computational effort in the offline phase. We consider a fully adaptive greedy approach to the computational design of experiments problem using gradient-enhanced Gaussian process regression as surrogates. Designs are incrementally defined by solving an optimization problem for accuracy given a certain computational budget. We address not only the choice of evaluation points but also of required simulation accuracy, both of values and gradients of the forward model.
Numerical results show a significant reduction of the computational effort compared to just position-adaptive and static designs as well as a clear benefit of including gradient information into the surrogate training.
Conduction velocity in cardiac tissue is a crucial electrophysiological parameter for arrhythmia vulnerability. Pathologically reduced conduction velocity facilitates arrhythmogenesis because such conduction velocities decrease the wavelength with which re-entry may occur. Computational studies on CV and how it changes regionally in models at spatial scales multiple times larger than actual cardiac cells exist. However, microscopic conduction within cells and between them have been studied less in simulations. In this work, we study the relation of microscopic conduction patterns and clinically observable macroscopic conduction using an extracellular-membrane-intracellular model which represents cardiac tissue with these subdomains at subcellular resolution. By considering cell arrangement and non-uniform gap junction distribution, it yields anisotropic excitation propagation. This novel kind of model can for example be used to understand how discontinuous conduction on the microscopic level affects fractionation of electrograms in healthy and fibrotic tissue. Along the membrane of a cell, we observed a continuously propagating activation wavefront. When transitioning from one cell to the neighbouring one, jumps in local activation times occurred, which led to lower global conduction velocities than locally within each cell.
Cardiac electrograms are an important tool to study the spread of excitation waves inside the heart, which in turn underlie muscle contraction. Electrograms can be used to analyse the dynamics of these waves, e.g. in fibrotic tissue. In computational models, these analyses can be done with greater detail than during minimally invasive in vivo procedures. Whilst homogenised models have been used to study electrogram genesis, such analyses have not yet been done in cellularly resolved models. Such high resolution may be required to develop a thorough understanding of the mechanisms behind abnormal excitation patterns leading to arrhythmias. In this study, we derived electrograms from an excitation propagation simulation in the Extracellular, Membrane, Intracellular (EMI) model, which represents these three domains explicitly in the mesh. We studied the effects of the microstructural excitation dynamics on electrogram genesis and morphology. We found that electrograms are sensitive to the myocyte alignment and connectivity, which translates into micro-fractionations in the electrograms.
Efficient numerical methods for simulating cardiac electrophysiology with cellular resolution
(2023)
The cardiac extracellular-membrane-intracellular (EMI) model enables the precise geometrical representation and resolution of aggregates of individual myocytes. As a result, it not only yields more accurate simulations of cardiac excitation compared to homogenized models but also presents the challenge of solving much larger problems. In this paper, we introduce recent advancements in three key areas: (i) the creation of artificial, yet realistic grids, (ii) efficient higher-order time stepping achieved by combining low-overhead spatial adaptivity on the algebraic level with progressive spectral deferred correction methods, and (iii) substructuring domain decomposition preconditioners tailored to address the complexities of heterogeneous problem structures. The efficiency gains of these proposed methods are demonstrated through numerical results on cardiac meshes of different sizes.
Convergence Properties of Newton’s Method for Globally Optimal Free Flight Trajectory Optimization
(2023)
The algorithmic efficiency of Newton-based methods for Free Flight Trajectory Optimization is heavily influenced by the size of the domain of convergence. We provide numerical evidence that the convergence radius is much larger in practice than what the theoretical worst case bounds suggest. The algorithm can be further improved by a convergence-enhancing domain decomposition.
Globally optimal free flight trajectory optimization can be achieved with a combination of discrete and continuous optimization. A key requirement is that Newton's method for continuous optimization converges in a sufficiently large neighborhood around a minimizer. We show in this paper that, under certain assumptions, this is the case.
Convergence Properties of Newton's Method for Globally Optimal Free Flight Trajectory Optimization
(2023)
The algorithmic efficiency of Newton-based methods for Free Flight Trajectory Optimization is heavily influenced by the size of the domain of convergence. We provide numerical evidence that the convergence radius is much larger in practice than what the theoretical worst case bounds suggest. The algorithm can be further improved by a convergence-enhancing domain decomposition.
On the Accuracy of Eikonal Approximations in Cardiac Electrophysiology in the Presence of Fibrosis
(2023)
Fibrotic tissue is one of the main risk factors for cardiac arrhythmias. It is therefore a key component in computational studies. In this work, we compare the monodomain equation to two eikonal models for cardiac electrophysiology in the presence of fibrosis. We show that discontinuities in the conductivity field, due to the presence of fibrosis, introduce a delay in the activation times. The monodomain equation and eikonal-diffusion model correctly capture these delays, contrarily to the classical eikonal equation. Importantly, a coarse space discretization of the monodomain equation amplifies these delays, even after accounting for numerical error in conduction velocity. The numerical discretization may also introduce artificial conduction blocks and hence increase propagation complexity. Therefore, some care is required when comparing eikonal models to the discretized monodomain equation.
Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies leads to nonlinear optimization problems that can be solved by numerical algorithms. Epidemiological models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples.
Temperature-based time of death estimation (TTDE) using simulation methods such as the finite element (FE) method promises higher accuracy and broader applicability in nonstandard cooling scenarios than established phenomenological methods. Their accuracy depends crucially on the simulation model to capture the actual situation. The model fidelity in turn hinges on the representation of the corpse’s anatomy in form of computational meshes as well as on the thermodynamic parameters.
While inaccuracies in anatomy representation due to coarse mesh resolution are known to have a minor impact on the estimated time of death, the sensitivity with respect to larger differences in the anatomy has so far not been studied. We assess this sensitivity by comparing four independently generated and vastly different anatomical models in terms of the estimated time of death in an identical cooling scenario. In order to isolate the impact of shape variation, the models are scaled to a reference size, and the possible impact of measurement location variation is excluded explicitly, which gives a lower bound on the impact of anatomy on the estimated time of death.
Adaptive Gaussian Process Regression for Efficient Building of Surrogate Models in Inverse Problems
(2023)
In a task where many similar inverse problems must be solved, evaluating costly simulations is impractical. Therefore, replacing the model y with a surrogate model y(s) that can be evaluated quickly leads to a significant speedup. The approximation quality of the surrogate model depends strongly on the number, position, and accuracy of the sample points. With an additional finite computational budget, this leads to a problem of (computer) experimental design. In contrast to the selection of sample points, the trade-off between accuracy and effort has hardly been studied systematically. We therefore propose an adaptive algorithm to find an optimal design in terms of
position and accuracy. Pursuing a sequential design by incrementally appending the computational budget leads to a convex and constrained optimization problem. As a surrogate, we construct a Gaussian process regression model. We measure the global approximation error in terms of its impact on the accuracy of the identified parameter and aim for a uniform absolute tolerance, assuming that y(s) is computed by finite element calculations. A priori error estimates and a coarse estimate of computational effort relate the expected improvement of the surrogate model error to computational effort, resulting in the most efficient combination of sample point and evaluation tolerance. We also allow for improving the accuracy of already existing sample points by continuing previously truncated finite element solution procedures.
Globally optimal free flight trajectory optimization can be achieved with a combination of discrete and continuous optimization. A key requirement is that Newton's method for continuous optimization converges in a sufficiently large neighborhood around a minimizer. We show in this paper that, under certain assumptions, this is the case.
Rectal temperature measurement (RTM) from crime scenes is an important parameter for temperature-based time of death estimation (TDE). Various influential variables exist in TDE methods like the uncertainty in thermal and environmental parameters. Although RTM depends in particular on the location of measurement position, this relationship has never been investigated separately. The presented study fills this gap using Finite Element (FE) simulations of body cooling. A manually meshed coarse human FE model and an FE geometry model developed from the CT scan of a male corpse are used for TDE sensitivity analysis. The coarse model is considered with and without a support structure of moist soil. As there is no clear definition of ideal rectal temperature measurement location for TDE, possible variations in RTM location (RTML) are considered based on anatomy and forensic practice. The maximum variation of TDE caused by RTML changes is investigated via FE simulation. Moreover, the influence of ambient temperature, of FE model change and of the models positioning on a wet soil underground are also discussed. As a general outcome, we notice that maximum TDE deviations of up to ca. 2-3 h due to RTML deviations have to be expected. The direction of maximum influence of RTML change on TDE generally was on the line caudal to cranial.
This C++ code implements a cell-by-cell model of cardiac excitation using a piecewise-continuous finite element discretization and spectral deferred correction time stepping. The code is based on the Kaskade 7 finite element toolbox and forms a prototype for the µCarp code to be implemented in the Microcard project.