90C15 Stochastic programming
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Mean-variance portfolio analysis provided the first quantitative treatment of the tradeoff between profit and risk. We investigate in detail the interplay between objective and constraints in a number of single-period variants, including semi-variance models. Particular emphasis is laid on avoiding the penalization of overperformance. The results are then used as building blocks in the development and theoretical analysis of multi-period models based on scenario trees. A key property is the possibility to remove surplus money in future decisions, yielding approximate downside risk minimization.
The paper presents a new algorithmic approach for multistage stochastic programs which are seen as discrete optimal control problems with a characteristic dynamic structure induced by the scenario tree. To exploit that structure, we propose a highly efficient dynamic programming recursion for the computationally intensive task of KKT systems solution within a primal-dual interior point method. Convergence is drastically enhanced by a successive refinement technique providing both primal and dual initial estimates. Test runs on a multistage portfolio selection problem demonstrate the performance of the method.
Multistage stochastic programs can be seen as discrete optimal control problems with a characteristic dynamic structure induced by the scenario tree. To exploit that structure, we propose a highly efficient dynamic programming recursion for the computationally intensive task of KKT systems solution within an interior point method. Test runs on a multistage portfolio selection problem demonstrate the performance of the algorithm.