65C05 Monte Carlo methods
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Applications of the cross-entropy method to importance sampling and optimal control of diffusions
(2014)
We study the cross-entropy method for diffusions. One of the results is a versatile cross-entropy algorithm that can be used to design efficient importance sampling strategies for rare events or to solve optimal control problems. The approach is based on the minimization of a suitable cross-entropy functional, with a parametric family of exponentially tilted probability distributions. We illustrate the new algorithm with several numerical examples and discuss algorithmic issues and possible extensions of the method.
The understanding of geometric structures and dynamical properties of molecular conformations gives insight into molecular long-term behavior. The identification of metastable conformations together with their life times and transition patterns is the intention of conformation dynamics. Conformation dynamics is a multi-scale approach that leads to a reduced description of the dynamical system in terms of a stochastic transition probability matrix. The present thesis deals with the error analysis of computed matrices and the resulting matrix functions. Since conformational membership vectors, as they are computed by the Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+), form an invariant subspace of the transition matrix, subspace-based error estimators are of particular interest. The decomposition of the state space into basis functions and the approximation of integrals by Monte-Carlo quadrature give rise to row-wise correlated random matrices, for which stochastic norms are computed. Together with an appropriate statistical model for the distribution of matrix rows, this allows for the calculation of error bounds and error distributions of the invariant subspace and other variables of interest. Equilibration of errors among the basis functions can be achieved by enhanced sampling in regions where the trajectories are mixing slowly. Hierarchical refinement of such basis functions systematically improves the clustering into metastable conformations by reducing the error in the corresponding invariant subspace. These techniques allow for an evaluation of simulation results and pave the way for the analysis of larger molecules. Moreover, the extension of PCCA+ to non-reversible Markov chains, verified by the corresponding perturbation theory, and the modification of the objective function for the case of soft membership vectors represent a further generalization of the clustering method, thus continuing the development from PCCA over PCCA+ to PCCA++. The methods developed in this thesis are useful for but not limited to conformation dynamics. In fact, they are applicable to a broader class of problems which combine domain decomposition with Monte-Carlo quadrature. Possible application areas may include the chemical master equation or quantum dynamical systems.
Computational drug design studies molecular recognition in the {\em virtual lab}. The arising Hamiltonian dynamics is known to be chaotic and ill-conditioned already after picoseconds, whereas times are $msec$ up to $min$. Classical molecular dynamics with long term trajectory computation gives, at best, information about time and statistical ensemble averages. The present paper surveys a recent new modeling approach called {\em conformational dynamics}, which is due to the author and Ch. Schütte. This approach achieves information about the dy time scales by telescoping a short term deterministic model with a statistical model. Examples of small biomolecules are included.