60-XX PROBABILITY THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES (For additional applications, see 11Kxx, 62-XX, 90-XX, 91-XX, 92-XX, 93-XX, 94-XX)
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Following axon pathfinding, growth cones transition from stochastic filopodial exploration to the formation of a limited number of synapses. How the interplay of filopodia and synapse assembly ensures robust connectivity in the brain has remained a challenging problem. Here, we developed a new 4D analysis method for filopodial dynamics and a data-driven computational model of synapse formation for R7 photoreceptor axons in developing Drosophila brains. Our live data support a 'serial synapse formation' model, where at any time point only a single 'synaptogenic' filopodium suppresses the synaptic competence of other filopodia through competition for synaptic seeding factors. Loss of the synaptic seeding factors Syd-1 and Liprin-α leads to a loss of this suppression, filopodial destabilization and reduced synapse formation, which is sufficient to cause the destabilization of entire axon terminals. Our model provides a filopodial 'winner-takes-all' mechanism that ensures the formation of an appropriate number of synapses.
In this paper, we present a new, optimization-based method to exhibit cyclic behavior in non-reversible stochastic processes. While our method is general, it is strongly motivated by discrete simulations of ordinary differential equations representing non-reversible biological processes, in particular molecular simulations. Here, the discrete time steps of the simulation are often very small compared to the time scale of interest, i.e., of the whole process. In this setting, the detection of a global cyclic behavior of the process becomes difficult because transitions between individual states may appear almost reversible on the small time scale of the simulation. We address this difficulty using a mixed-integer programming model that allows us to compute a cycle of clusters with maximum net flow, i.e., large forward and small backward probability. For a synthetic genetic regulatory network consisting of a ring-oscillator with three genes, we show that this approach can detect the most productive overall cycle, outperforming classical spectral analysis methods. Our method applies to general non-equilibrium steady state systems such as catalytic reactions, for which the objective value computes the effectiveness of the catalyst.
In this paper, we present a new, optimization-based method to exhibit cyclic behavior in non-reversible stochastic processes. While our method is general, it is strongly motivated by discrete simulations of ordinary differential equations representing non-reversible biological processes, in particular molecular simulations. Here, the discrete time steps of the simulation are often very small compared to the time scale of interest, i.e., of the whole process. In this setting, the detection of a global cyclic behavior of the process becomes difficult because transitions between individual states may appear almost reversible on the small time scale of the simulation. We address this difficulty using a mixed-integer programming model that allows us to compute a cycle of clusters with maximum net flow, i.e., large forward and small backward probability. For a synthetic genetic regulatory network consisting of a ring-oscillator with three genes, we show that this approach can detect the most productive overall cycle, outperforming classical spectral analysis methods. Our method applies to general non-equilibrium steady state systems such as catalytic reactions, for which the objective value computes the effectiveness of the catalyst.
In this article we present a new idea for approximating exit rates for diffusion processes living in a craggy landscape. We are especially interested in the exit rates of a process living in a metastable regions. Due to the fact that Monte Carlo simulations perform quite poor and are very computational expensive in this setting we create several similar situations with a smoothed potential. For this we introduce a new parameter $\lambda \in [0,1]$ ($\lambda = 1$ very smoothed potential, $\lambda=0$ original potential) into the potential which controls the influence the smoothing. We then sample the exit rate for different parameters $\lambda$ the exit rate from a given region. Due to the fact that $\lambda$ is connected to the exit rate we can use this dependency to approximate the real exit rate. The method can be seen as something between hyperdynamics and temperature accelerated MC.
Tracing microtubule centerlines in serial section electron tomography requires microtubules to be stitched across sections, that is lines from different sections need to be aligned, endpoints need to be matched at section boundaries to establish a correspondence between neighboring sections, and corresponding lines need to be connected across multiple sections. We present computational methods for these tasks: 1) An initial alignment is computed using a distance compatibility graph. 2) A fine alignment is then computed with a probabilistic variant of the iterative closest points algorithm, which we extended to handle the orientation of lines by introducing a periodic random variable to the probabilistic formulation. 3) Endpoint correspondence is established by formulating a matching problem in terms of a Markov random field and computing the best matching with belief propagation. Belief propagation is not generally guaranteed to converge to a minimum. We show how convergence can be achieved, nonetheless, with minimal manual input. In addition to stitching microtubule centerlines, the correspondence is also applied to transform and merge the electron tomograms. We applied the proposed methods to samples from the mitotic spindle in C. elegans, the meiotic spindle in X. laevis, and sub-pellicular microtubule arrays in T. brucei. The methods were able to stitch microtubules across section boundaries in good agreement with experts’ opinions for the spindle samples. Results, however, were not satisfactory for the microtubule arrays. For certain experiments, such as an analysis of the spindle, the proposed methods can replace manual expert tracing and thus enable the analysis of microtubules over long distances with reasonable manual effort.
This article extends the framework of Bayesian inverse problems in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces, as advocated by Stuart (Acta Numer. 19:451–559, 2010) and others, to the case of a heavy-tailed prior measure in the family of stable distributions, such as an infinite-dimensional Cauchy distribution, for which polynomial moments are infinite or undefined. It is shown that analogues of the Karhunen–Loève expansion for square-integrable random variables can be used to sample such measures. Furthermore, under weaker regularity assumptions than those used to date, the Bayesian posterior measure is shown to depend Lipschitz continuously in the Hellinger metric upon perturbations of the misfit function and observed data.
Some connections between importance sampling and enhanced sampling methods in molecular dynamics
(2017)
Enhanced sampling methods play an important role in molecular dynamics, because they enable the collection of better statistics of rare events that are important in many physical phenomena. We show that many enhanced sampling methods can be viewed as methods for performing importance sampling, by identifying important correspondences between the language of molecular dynamics and the language of probability theory. We illustrate these connections by highlighting the similarities between the rare event simulation method of Hartmann and Schütte (J. Stat. Mech. Theor. Exp., 2012), and the enhanced sampling method of Valsson and Parrinello (Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601). We show that the idea of changing a probability measure is fundamental to both enhanced sampling and importance sampling.
An automatic adaptive importance sampling algorithm for molecular dynamics in reaction coordinates
(2017)
In this article we propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for dynamical quantities of high dimensional complex systems which are metastable. The main idea of this article is to combine a method coming from Molecular Dynamics Simulation, Metadynamics, with a theorem from stochastic analysis, Girsanov's theorem. The proposed algorithm has two advantages compared to a standard estimator of dynamic quantities: firstly, it is possible to produce estimators with a lower variance and, secondly, we can speed up the sampling. One of the main problems for building importance sampling schemes for metastable systems is to find the metastable region in order to manipulate the potential accordingly. Our method circumvents this problem by using an assimilated version of the Metadynamics algorithm and thus creates a non-equilibrium dynamics which is used to sample the equilibrium quantities.
We deal with an infinite-server system where the
service speed is governed by a stationary and ergodic
process with countably many states. Applying a random
time transformation such that the service speed
becomes one, the sojourn time of a class of virtual
requests with given required service time is equal
in distribution to an additive functional defined
via a stationary version of the time-changed process.
Thus bounds for the expectation of functions of additive
functionals yield bounds for the expectation
of functions of virtual sojourn times, in particular
bounds for fractional moments and the distribution
function. Interpreting the $GI(n)/GI(n)/\infty$ system or
equivalently the $GI(n)/GI$ system under state-dependent
processor sharing as an infinite-server system with
random states given by the number $n$ of requests
in the system provides results for sojourn times
of virtual requests. In case of $M(n)/GI(n)/\infty$,
the sojourn times of arriving and added requests are
equal in distribution to sojourn times of virtual
requests in modified systems, which yields many results
for the sojourn times of arriving and added requests.
In case of integer moments, the bounds generalize
earlier results for $M/GI(n)/\infty$. In particular,
the mean sojourn times of arriving and added requests
in $M(n)/GI(n)/\infty$ are proportional to the required
service time, generalizing Cohen's famous result
for $M/GI(n)/\infty$.