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In designing energy supply systems, designers should heighten the robustness in performance criteria against the uncertainty in energy demands. In this paper, a robust optimal design method using a hierarchical mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) method is proposed to maximize the robustness of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands based on a mixed-integer linear model. A robust optimal design problem is formulated as a three-level min-max-min MILP one by expressing uncertain energy demands by intervals, evaluating the robustness in a performance criterion based on the minimax regret criterion, and considering relationships among integer design variables, uncertain energy demands, and integer and continuous operation variables. This problem is solved by evaluating upper and lower bounds for the minimum of the maximum regret of the performance criterion repeatedly outside, and evaluating lower and upper bounds for the maximum regret repeatedly inside. Different types of optimization problems are solved by applying a hierarchical MILP method developed for ordinary optimal design problems without and with its modifications. In a case study, the proposed approach is applied to the robust optimal design of a cogeneration system. Through the study, its validity and effectiveness are ascertained, and some features of the obtained robust designs are clarified.
The mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) method has been applied widely to optimal design of energy supply systems. A hierarchical MILP method has been proposed to solve such optimal design problems efficiently. In addition, a method of reducing model by time aggregation has been proposed to search design candidates accurately and efficiently at the upper level. In this paper, the hierarchical MILP method and model reduction by time aggregation are applied to the multiobjective optimal design. The methods of clustering periods by the order of time series, by the k-medoids method, and based on an operational strategy are applied for the model reduction. As a case study, the multiobjective optimal design of a gas turbine cogeneration system is investigated by adopting the annual total cost and primary energy consumption as the objective functions, and the clustering methods are compared with one another in terms of the computation efficiency. It turns out that the model reduction by any clustering method is effective to enhance the computation efficiency when importance is given to minimizing the first objective function, but that the model reduction only by the k-medoids method is effective very limitedly when importance is given to minimizing the second objective function.