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Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia
(2022)
Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To
cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural
change in ancient times.
Molecular simulations of ligand–receptor interactions are a computational challenge, especially when their association- (‘on’-rate) and dissociation- (‘off’-rate) mechanisms are working on vastly differing timescales. One way of tackling this multiscale problem is to compute the free-energy landscapes, where molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are used to only produce certain statistical ensembles. The approach allows for deriving the transition rates between energy states as a function of the height of the activation-energy barriers. In this article, we derive the association rates of the opioids fentanyl and N-(3-fluoro-1-phenethylpiperidin-4-yl)-N-phenyl propionamide (NFEPP) in a μ-opioid receptor by combining the free-energy landscape approach with the square-root-approximation method (SQRA), which is a particularly robust version of Markov modelling. The novelty of this work is that we derive the association rates as a function of the pH level using only an ensemble of MD simulations. We also verify our MD-derived insights by reproducing the in vitro study performed by the Stein Lab.
Initiated by mathematical modelling of extracellular interactions between G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) and ligands in normal versus diseased (inflamed) environments, we previously reported the successful design, synthesis and testing of the prototype opioid painkiller NFEPP that does not elicit adverse side effects. Uniquely, this design recognised that GPCRs function differently under pathological versus healthy conditions.
We now present a novel stochastic model of GPCR function that includes intracellular dissociation of G-protein subunits and modulation of plasma membrane calcium channels associated with parameters of inflamed tissue (pH, radicals). By means of molecular dynamics simulations, we also assessed qualitative changes of the reaction rates due to additional disulfide bridges inside the GPCR binding pocket and used these rates for stochastic simulations of the corresponding reaction jump process.
The modelling results were validated with in vitro experiments measuring calcium currents and G-protein activation.
We found markedly reduced G-protein dissociation and calcium channel inhibition induced by NFEPP at normal pH, and enhanced constitutive G-protein activation but lower probability of ligand binding with increasing radical concentrations.
These results suggest that, compared to radicals, low pH is a more important determinant of overall GPCR function in an inflamed environment. Future drug design efforts should take this into account.
Molecular simulations of ligand-receptor interactions are a computational challenge, especially when their association- (``on''-rate) and dissociation- (``off''-rate) mechanisms are working on vastly differing timescales. In addition, the timescale of the simulations themselves is, in practice, orders of magnitudes smaller than that of the mechanisms; which further adds to the complexity of observing these mechanisms, and of drawing meaningful and significant biological insights from the simulation.
One way of tackling this multiscale problem is to compute the free-energy landscapes, where molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are used to only produce certain statistical ensembles. The approach allows for deriving the transition rates between energy states as a function of the height of the activation-energy barriers. In this article, we derive the association rates of the opioids fentanyl and N-(3-fluoro-1-phenethylpiperidin-4-yl)- N-phenyl propionamide (NFEPP) in a $\mu$-opioid receptor by combining the free-energy landscape approach with the square-root-approximation method (SQRA), which is a particularly robust version of Markov modelling. The novelty of this work is that we derive the association rates as a function of the pH level using only an ensemble of MD simulations. We also verify our MD-derived insights by reproducing the in vitro study performed by the Stein Lab, who investigated the influence of pH on the inhibitory constant of fentanyl and NFEPP (Spahn et al. 2017).
MD simulations are far more accessible and cost-effective than in vitro and in vivo studies. Especially in the context of the current opioid crisis, MD simulations can aid in unravelling molecular functionality and assist in clinical decision-making; the approaches presented in this paper are a pertinent step forward in this direction.
We study the romanization process of northern Africa from 50 BC till 300 AD. Our goal is to infer the communication strength between different subregions, based on the evolution of the status of cities. Herefore, we use the general inverse infection model, that infers the weights of a known underlying network, given observations of the spreading on this network. As infection process we choose the SI metapopulation model, where I stands for a city with a Roman status. To solve the minimization problem we use the particle swarm optimization algorithm with a specific choice of parameters.
We previously reported the successful design, synthesis and testing of the prototype opioid painkiller NFEPP that does not elicit adverse side effects. The design process of NFEPP was based on mathematical modelling of extracellular interactions between G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) and ligands, recognizing that GPCRs function differently under pathological versus healthy conditions. We now present an additional and novel stochastic model of GPCR function that includes intracellular dissociation of G-protein subunits and modulation of plasma membrane calcium channels and their dependence on parameters of inflamed and healthy tissue (pH, radicals). The model is validated against in vitro experimental data for the ligands NFEPP and fentanyl at different pH values and radical concentrations. We observe markedly reduced binding affinity and calcium channel inhibition for NFEPP at normal pH compared to lower pH, in contrast to the effect of fentanyl. For increasing radical concentrations, we find enhanced constitutive G-protein activation but reduced ligand binding affinity. Assessing the different effects, the results suggest that, compared to radicals, low pH is a more important determinant of overall GPCR function in an inflamed environment. Future drug design efforts should take this into account.
5q-spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a neuromuscular disorder (NMD) that has become one of the first 5% treatable rare diseases. The efficacy of new SMA therapies is creating a dynamic SMA patient landscape, where disease progression and scoliosis development play a central role, however, remain difficult to anticipate. New approaches to anticipate disease progression and associated sequelae will be needed to continuously provide these patients the best standard of care. Here we developed an interpretable machine learning (ML) model that can function as an assistive tool in the anticipation of SMA-associated scoliosis based on disease progression markers. We collected longitudinal data from 86 genetically confirmed SMA patients. We selected six features routinely assessed over time to train a random forest classifier. The model achieved a mean accuracy of 0.77 (SD 0.2) and an average ROC AUC of 0.85 (SD 0.17). For class 1 ‘scoliosis’ the average precision was 0.84 (SD 0.11), recall 0.89 (SD 0.22), F1-score of 0.85 (SD 0.17), respectively. Our trained model could predict scoliosis using selected disease progression markers and was consistent with the radiological measurements. During post validation, the model could predict scoliosis in patients who were unseen during training. We also demonstrate that rare disease data sets can be wrangled to build predictive ML models. Interpretable ML models can function as assistive tools in a changing disease landscape and have the potential to democratize expertise that is otherwise clustered at specialized centers.