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About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.
About 20% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad-
ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders).
Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-
pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”) especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance.
In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas
flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes.
Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation
Linear energy system models are a crucial component of energy system design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. If detailed enough, such models lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for the best state-of-the-art solvers. This article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed-memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly-bordered block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement based decomposition. In order to handle the large number of linking constraints and variables commonly observed in energy system models, a distributed Schur complement preconditioner is used. In addition, the solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is based on the solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate the computational performance on energy system models with up to four billion nonzero entries in the constraint matrix—and up to one billion columns and one billion rows. This article mainly concentrates on the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing market-clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy system analyses in recent years. However, it will be demonstrated that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models.
Cut selection is a subroutine used in all modern mixed-integer linear programming solvers with the goal of selecting a subset of generated cuts that induce optimal solver performance. These solvers have millions of parameter combinations, and so are excellent candidates for parameter tuning. Cut selection scoring rules are usually weighted sums of different measurements, where the weights are parameters. We present a parametric family of mixed-integer linear programs together with infinitely many family-wide valid cuts. Some of these cuts can induce integer optimal solutions directly after being applied, while others fail to do so even if an infinite amount are applied. We show for a specific cut selection rule, that any finite grid search of the parameter space will always miss all parameter values, which select integer optimal inducing cuts in an infinite amount of our problems. We propose a variation on the design of existing graph convolutional neural networks, adapting them to learn cut selection rule parameters. We present a reinforcement learning framework for selecting cuts, and train our design using said framework over MIPLIB 2017. Our framework and design show that adaptive cut selection does substantially improve performance over a diverse set of instances, but that finding a single function describing such a rule is difficult. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/Adaptive-Cutsel-MILP.
Cutting plane selection is a subroutine used in all modern mixed-integer linear programming solvers with the goal of selecting a subset of generated cuts that induce optimal solver performance. These solvers have millions of parameter combinations, and so are excellent candidates for parameter tuning. Cut selection scoring rules are usually weighted sums of different measurements, where the weights are parameters. We present a parametric family of mixed-integer linear programs together with infinitely many family-wide valid cuts. Some of these cuts can induce integer optimal solutions directly after being applied, while others fail to do so even if an infinite amount are applied. We show for a specific cut selection rule, that any finite grid search of the parameter space will always miss all parameter values, which select integer optimal inducing cuts in an infinite amount of our problems. We propose a variation on the design of existing graph convolutional neural networks, adapting them to learn cut selection rule parameters. We present a reinforcement learning framework for selecting cuts, and train our design using said framework over MIPLIB 2017 and a neural network verification data set. Our framework and design show that adaptive cut selection does substantially improve performance over a diverse set of instances, but that finding a single function describing such a rule is difficult. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/Adaptive-Cutsel-MILP.
Article's Scientific Prestige: Measuring the Impact of Individual Articles in the Web of Science
(2022)
We performed a citation analysis on the Web of Science publications consisting of more than 63 million articles and 1.45 billion citations on 254 subjects from 1981 to 2020. We proposed the Article’s Scientific Prestige (ASP) metric and compared this metric to number of citations (#Cit) and journal grade in measuring the scientific impact of individual articles in the large-scale
hierarchical and multi-disciplined citation network. In contrast to #Cit, ASP, that is computed based on the eigenvector centrality, considers both direct and indirect citations, and provides
steady-state evaluation cross different disciplines. We found that ASP and #Cit are not aligned for most articles, with a growing mismatch amongst the less cited articles. While both metrics are reliable for evaluating the prestige of articles such as Nobel Prize winning articles, ASP tends to provide more persuasive rankings than #Cit when the articles are not highly cited. The journal grade, that is eventually determined by a few highly cited articles, is unable to properly
reflect the scientific impact of individual articles. The number of references and coauthors are
less relevant to scientific impact, but subjects do make a difference.
Article’s scientific prestige: Measuring the impact of individual articles in the web of science
(2023)
We performed a citation analysis on the Web of Science publications consisting of more than 63 million articles and 1.45 billion citations on 254 subjects from 1981 to 2020. We proposed the Article’s Scientific Prestige (ASP) metric and compared this metric to number of citations (#Cit) and journal grade in measuring the scientific impact of individual articles in the large-scale hierarchical and multi-disciplined citation network. In contrast to #Cit, ASP, that is computed based on the eigenvector centrality, considers both direct and indirect citations, and provides steady-state evaluation cross different disciplines. We found that ASP and #Cit are not aligned for most articles, with a growing mismatch amongst the less cited articles. While both metrics are reliable for evaluating the prestige of articles such as Nobel Prize winning articles, ASP tends to provide more persuasive rankings than #Cit when the articles are not highly cited. The journal grade, that is eventually determined by a few highly cited articles, is unable to properly reflect the scientific impact of individual articles. The number of references and coauthors are less relevant to scientific impact, but subjects do make a difference.