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About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.
About 20% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad-
ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders).
Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-
pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”) especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance.
In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas
flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes.
Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation
We present an exact rational solver for mixed-integer linear programming that avoids the numerical inaccuracies inherent in the floating-point computations used by existing software. This allows the solver to be used for establishing theoretical results and in applications where correct solutions are critical due to legal and financial consequences. Our solver is a hybrid symbolic/numeric implementation of LP-based branch-and-bound, using numerically-safe methods for all binding computations in the search tree. Computing provably accurate solutions by dynamically choosing the fastest of several safe dual bounding methods depending on the structure of the instance, our exact solver is only moderately slower than an inexact floating-point branch-and-bound solver. The software is incorporated into the SCIP optimization framework, using the exact LP solver QSopt_ex and the GMP arithmetic library. Computational results are presented for a suite of test instances taken from the MIPLIB and Mittelmann libraries and for a new collection of numerically difficult instances.
We present an exact rational solver for mixed-integer linear programming that avoids the numerical inaccuracies inherent in the floating-point computations used by existing software. This allows the solver to be used for establishing theoretical results and in applications where correct solutions are critical due to legal and financial consequences. Our solver is a hybrid symbolic/numeric implementation of LP-based branch-and-bound, using numerically-safe methods for all binding computations in the search tree. Computing provably accurate solutions by dynamically choosing the fastest of several safe dual bounding methods depending on the structure of the instance, our exact solver is only moderately slower than an inexact floating-point branch-and-bound solver. The software is incorporated into the SCIP optimization framework, using the exact LP solver QSopt_ex and the GMP arithmetic library. Computational results are presented for a suite of test instances taken from the MIPLIB and Mittelmann libraries and for a new collection of numerically difficult instances.
Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in Germany and Europe. In recent years, political regulations have led to a strict separation of gas trading and gas transport, thereby assigning a central role in energy politics to the transportation and distribution of gas. These newly imposed political requirements influenced the technical processes of gas transport in such a way that the complex task of planning and operating gas networks has become even more intricate. Mathematically, the combination of discrete decisions on the configuration of a gas transport network, the nonlinear equations describing the physics of gas, and the uncertainty in demand and supply yield large-scale and highly complex stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. The Matheon project "Optimization of Gas Transport" takes the key role of making available the necessary core technology to solve the mathematical optimization problems which model the topology planning and the operation of gas networks. An important aspect of the academic impact is the free availability of our framework. As a result of several years of research and development, it is now possible to download a complete state-of-the-art framework for mixed-integer linear and nonlinear programming in source code at http://scip.zib.de
Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in Germany and Europe. In recent years, political regulations have led to a strict separation of gas trading and gas transport, thereby assigning a central role in energy politics to the transportation and distribution of gas. These newly imposed political requirements influenced the technical processes of gas transport in such a way that the complex task of planning and operating gas networks has become even more intricate.
Mathematically, the combination of discrete decisions on the configuration of a gas transport network, the nonlinear equations describing the physics of gas, and the uncertainty in demand and supply yield large-scale and highly complex stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems.
The Matheon project "Optimization of Gas Transport" takes the key role of making available the necessary core technology to solve the mathematical optimization problems which model the topology planning and the operation of gas networks. An important aspect of the academic impact is the free availability of our framework. As a result of several years of research and development, it is now possible to download a complete state-of-the-art framework for mixed-integer linear and nonlinear programming in source code at http://scip.zib.de
A massively parallel interior-point solver for linear energy system models with block structure
(2019)
Linear energy system models are often a crucial component of system
design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. Such models can lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for state-of-the-art commercial solvers|already the available memory on a desktop machine might not be sufficient. Against this backdrop, this article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of
linear energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly bordered
block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement
based decomposition. Special effort has been put into handling
large numbers of linking constraints and variables as commonly observed
in energy system models. In order to handle this strong linkage, a distributed
preconditioning of the Schur complement is used. In addition, the
solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix
scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is
based on the existing parallel interior-point solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate
the computational performance on energy system models with up to 700
million non-zero entries in the constraint matrix, and with more than 200
million columns and 250 million rows. This article mainly concentrates on
the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model
representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing
market clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy
system analyses during the recent years. However, it will be demonstrated
that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models.
Linear energy system models are a crucial component of energy system design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. If detailed enough, such models lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for the best state-of-the-art solvers. This article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed-memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly-bordered block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement based decomposition. In order to handle the large number of linking constraints and variables commonly observed in energy system models, a distributed Schur complement preconditioner is used. In addition, the solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is based on the solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate the computational performance on energy system models with up to four billion nonzero entries in the constraint matrix—and up to one billion columns and one billion rows. This article mainly concentrates on the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing market-clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy system analyses in recent years. However, it will be demonstrated that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models.