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Bovine fertility is the subject of extensive research in animal sciences, especially because fertility of dairy cows has declined during the last decades. The regulation of estrus is controlled by the complex interplay of various organs and hormones. Mathematical modeling of the bovine estrous cycle could help in understanding the dynamics of this complex biological system. In this paper we present a mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle that includes the processes of follicle and corpus luteum development and the key hormones that interact to control these processes. Focus in this paper is on development of the model, but also some simulation results are presented, showing that a set of equations and parameters is obtained that describes the system consistent with empirical knowledge. Even though the majority of the mechanisms that are included are only known qualitatively as stimulatory or inhibitory effects, the model surprisingly well features quantitative observations made in reality. This model of the bovine estrous cycle could be used as a basis for more elaborate models with the ability to study effects of external manipulations and genetic differences.
This study presents a differential equation model for the feedback mechanisms between Gonadotropin-releasing Hormone (GnRH), Follicle-Stimulating Hormone (FSH), Luteinizing Hormone (LH), development of follicles and corpus luteum, and the production of estradiol (E2), progesterone (P4), inhibin A (IhA), and inhibin B (IhB) during the female menstrual cycle.
In contrast to other models, this model does not involve delay differential equations and is based on deterministic modelling of the GnRH pulse pattern, which allows for faster simulation times and efficient parameter identification.
These steps were essential to tackle the task of developing a mathematical model for the administration of GnRH analogues.
The focus of this paper is on model development for GnRH receptor binding and the integration of a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for the GnRH agonist Nafarelin and the GnRH antagonist Cetrorelix into the menstrual cycle model.
The final mathematical model describes the hormone profiles (LH, FSH, P4, E2) throughout the menstrual cycle in 12 healthy women.
Moreover, it correctly predicts the changes in the cycle following single and multiple dose administration of Nafarelin or Cetrorelix at different stages in the cycle.
A deterministic model of tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Cameroon in particular including lack of access to the treatment and weak diagnose capacity is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics.
The model includes both frequency- and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative.
A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and most sensitive parameters of the model are identified using a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton
Method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. It has been shown that an increase of these parameter values over the
time can significantly reduce the disease burden in the population within the next 15 years.
A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency- and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.