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When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the nonparametric case, the maximum likelihood estimate is known to overfit the data, an issue that is commonly tackled by regularization. However, the majority of regularizations are ad hoc choices which lack invariance under reparametrization of the model and result in inconsistent estimates for equivalent models. We introduce a nonparametric, transformation-invariant estimator for the prior distribution. Being defined in terms of the missing information similar to the reference prior, it can be seen as an extension of the latter to the data-driven setting. This implies a natural interpretation as a trade-off between choosing the least informative prior and incorporating the information provided by the data, a symbiosis between the objective and empirical Bayes methodologies.
Mathematical Modelling and Simulation Provides Evidence for New Strategies of Ovarian Stimulation
(2021)
New approaches to ovarian stimulation protocols, such as luteal start, random start or double stimulation, allow for flexibility in ovarian stimulation at different phases of the menstrual cycle which is especially useful when time for assisted reproductive technology is limited, e.g. for emergency fertility preservation in cancer patients.
It has been proposed that the success of these methods is based on the continuous growth of multiple cohorts ("waves") of follicles throughout the menstrual cycle which leads to the availability of ovarian follicles for ovarian controlled stimulation at several time points. Though several preliminary studies have been published, their scientific evidence has not been considered as being strong enough to integrate these results into routine clinical practice. This work aims at adding further scientific evidence about the efficiency of variable-start protocols and underpinning the theory of follicular waves by using mathematical modelling and numerical simulations. For this purpose, we have modified and coupled two previously published models, one describing the time course of hormones and one describing competitive follicular growth in a normal menstrual cycle. The coupled model is used to test stimulation protocols in silico. Simulation results show the occurrence of follicles in a wave-like manner during a normal menstrual cycle and qualitatively predict the outcome of ovarian stimulation initiated at different time points of the menstrual cycle.
Boolean delay equations (BDEs), with their relatively simple and intuitive mode of
modelling, have been used in many research areas including, for example, climate
dynamics and earthquake propagation. Their application to biological systems has been
scarce and limited to the molecular level. Here, we derive and present two BDE models.
One is directly derived from a previously published ordinary differential equation
(ODE) model for the bovine estrous cycle, whereas the second model includes a
modification of a particular biological mechanism. We not only compare the simulation
results from the BDE models with the trajectories of the ODE model, but also validate
the BDE models with two additional numerical experiments. One experiment induces
a switch in the oscillatory pattern upon changes in the model parameters, and the
other simulates the administration of a hormone that is known to shift the estrous
cycle in time. The models presented here are the first BDE models for hormonal
oscillators, and the first BDE models for drug administration. Even though automatic
parameter estimation still remains challenging, our results support the role of BDEs
as a framework for the systematic modelling of complex biological oscillators.