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Exploration of different wave patterns in a model of the bovine estrous cycle by Fourier analysis
(2014)
Cows typically have different numbers of follicular waves during their hormonal cycle. Understanding the underlying regulations leads to insights into the reasons for declined fertility, a phenomenon that has been observed during the last decades. We present a systematic approach based on Fourier analysis to examine how parameter changes in a model of the bovine estrous cycle lead to different wave patterns. Even without any biological considerations, this allows to detect the responsible model parameters that control the type of periodicity of the solution, thus supporting experimental planning of animal scientists.
High-performing dairy cows require a particular composition of nutritional ingredients, adapted to their individual requirements and depending on their production status. The optimal dimensioning of minerals in the diet, one being potassium, is indispensable for the prevention of imbalances. Potassium balance in cows is the result of potassium intake, distribution in the organism, and excretion, and it is closely related to glucose and electrolyte metabolism. In this paper, we present a dynamical model for potassium balance in lactating and nonlactating dairy cows based on ordinary differential equations. Parameter values were obtained from clinical trial data and from the literature. To verify the consistency of the model, we present simulation outcomes for 3 different scenarios: potassium balance in (1) nonlactating cows with varying feed intake, (2) nonlactating cows with varying potassium fraction in the diet, and (3) lactating cows with varying milk production levels. The results give insights into the short- and long-term potassium metabolism, providing an important step toward the understanding of the potassium network, the design of prophylactic feed additives, and possible treatment strategies.
When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the nonparametric case, the maximum likelihood estimate is known to overfit the data, an issue that is commonly tackled by regularization. However, the majority of regularizations are ad hoc choices which lack invariance under reparametrization of the model and result in inconsistent estimates for equivalent models. We introduce a nonparametric, transformation-invariant estimator for the prior distribution. Being defined in terms of the missing information similar to the reference prior, it can be seen as an extension of the latter to the data-driven setting. This implies a natural interpretation as a trade-off between choosing the least informative prior and incorporating the information provided by the data, a symbiosis between the objective and empirical Bayes methodologies.
A seminar and interactive workshop on “In silico Methods –
Computational Alternatives to Animal Testing” was held in
Berlin, Germany, organized by Annemarie Lang, Frank Butt-
gereit and Andrea Volkamer at the Charité-Universitätsmedizin
Berlin, on August 17-18, 2017. During the half-day seminar, the
variety and applications of in silico methods as alternatives to
animal testing were presented with room for scientific discus-
sions with experts from academia, industry and the German fed-
eral ministry (Fig. 1). Talks on computational systems biology
were followed by detailed information on predictive toxicology
in order to display the diversity of in silico methods and the
potential to embrace them in current approaches (Hartung and
Hoffmann, 2009; Luechtefeld and Hartung, 2017). The follow-
ing interactive one-day Design Thinking Workshop was aimed
at experts, interested researchers and PhD-students interested in
the use of in silico as alternative methods to promote the 3Rs
(Fig. 2). Forty participants took part in the seminar while the
workshop was restricted to sixteen participants.
Background.
The chemical master equation is the fundamental equation of stochastic chemical kinetics. This differential-difference equation describes temporal evolution of the probability density function for states of a chemical system. A state of the system, usually encoded as a vector, represents the number of entities or copy numbers of interacting species, which are changing according to a list of possible reactions. It is often the case, especially when the state vector is high-dimensional, that the number of possible states the system may occupy is too large to be handled computationally. One way to get around this problem is to consider only those states that are associated with probabilities that are greater than a certain threshold level.
Results.
We introduce an algorithm that significantly reduces computational resources and is especially powerful when dealing with multi-modal distributions. The algorithm is built according to two key principles. Firstly, when performing time integration, the algorithm keeps track of the subset of states with significant probabilities (essential support). Secondly, the probability distribution that solves the equation is parametrised with a small number of coefficients using collocation on Gaussian radial basis functions. The system of basis functions is chosen in such a way that the solution is approximated only on the essential support instead of the whole state space.
Discussion.
In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, we consider four application examples: a) the self-regulating gene model, b) the 2-dimensional bistable toggle switch, c) a generalisation of the bistable switch to a 3-dimensional tristable problem, and d) a 3-dimensional cell differentiation model that, depending on parameter values, may operate in bistable or tristable modes. In all multidimensional examples the manifold containing the system states with significant probabilities undergoes drastic transformations over time. This fact makes the examples especially challenging for numerical methods.
Conclusions.
The proposed method is a new numerical approach permitting to approximately solve a wide range of problems that have been hard to tackle until now. A full representation of multi-dimensional distributions is recovered. The method is especially attractive when dealing with models that yield solutions of a complex structure, for instance, featuring multi-stability.
Electronic version: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1752-0509/9/67
Fuzzy spectral clustering by PCCA+: application to Markov state models and data classification
(2013)
A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency- and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.
Understanding the pathophysiological processes of osteoarthritis (OA) require adequate model systems. Although different in vitro or in vivo models have been described, further comprehensive approaches are needed to study specific parts of the disease. This study aimed to combine in vitro and in silico modeling to describe cellular and matrix-related changes during the early phase of OA. We developed an in vitro OA model based on scaffold-free cartilage-like constructs (SFCCs), which was mathematically modeled using a partial differential equation (PDE) system to resemble the processes during the onset of OA. SFCCs were produced from mesenchymal stromal cells and analyzed weekly by histology and qPCR to characterize the cellular and matrix-related composition. To simulate the early phase of OA, SFCCs were treated with interleukin-1β (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) and examined after 3 weeks or cultivated another 3 weeks without inflammatory cytokines to validate the regeneration potential. Mathematical modeling was performed in parallel to the in vitro experiments. SFCCs expressed cartilage-specific markers, and after stimulation an increased expression of inflammatory markers, matrix degrading enzymes, a loss of collagen II (Col-2) and a reduced cell density was observed which could be partially reversed by retraction of stimulation. Based on the PDEs, the distribution processes within the SFCCs, including those of IL-1β, Col-2 degradation and cell number reduction was simulated. By combining in vitro and in silico methods, we aimed to develop a valid, efficient alternative approach to examine and predict disease progression and new therapeutic strategies.
Our project aimed at building an in silico model based on our recently developed in vitro osteoarthritis (OA) model seeking for refinement of the model to enhance validity and translatability towards the more sophisticated simulation of OA. In detail, the previously 3D in vitro model is based on 3D chondrogenic constructs generated solely from human bone marrow derived mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs). Besides studying the normal state of the model over 3 weeks, the in vitro model was treated with interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) to mimic an OA-like environment.
Understanding the pathophysiological processes of cartilage degradation requires adequate model systems to develop therapeutic strategies towards osteoarthritis (OA). Although different in vitro or in vivo models have been described, further comprehensive approaches are needed to study specific disease aspects. This study aimed to combine in vitro and in silico modeling based on a tissue-engineering approach using mesenchymal condensation to mimic cytokine-induced cellular and matrix-related changes during cartilage degradation. Thus, scaffold-free cartilage-like constructs (SFCCs) were produced based on self-organization of mesenchymal stromal cells (mesenchymal condensation) and i) characterized regarding their cellular and matrix composition or secondly ii) treated with interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) for 3 weeks to simulate OA-related matrix degradation. In addition, an existing mathematical model based on partial differential equations was optimized and transferred to the underlying settings to simulate distribution of IL-1β, type II collagen degradation and cell number reduction. By combining in vitro and in silico methods, we aim to develop a valid, efficient alternative approach to examine and predict disease progression and effects of new therapeutics.
In addition to the conventional Isothermal Titration Calorimetry (ITC), kinetic ITC (kinITC) not only gains thermodynamic information, but also kinetic data from a biochemical binding process. Moreover, kinITC gives insights into reactions consisting of two separate kinetic steps, such as protein folding or sequential binding processes. The ITC method alone cannot deliver kinetic parameters, especially not for multivalent bindings. This paper describes how to solve the problem using kinITC and an invariant subspace projection. The algorithm is tested for multivalent systems with different valencies.
Mathematical Modelling and Simulation Provides Evidence for New Strategies of Ovarian Stimulation
(2021)
New approaches to ovarian stimulation protocols, such as luteal start, random start or double stimulation, allow for flexibility in ovarian stimulation at different phases of the menstrual cycle which is especially useful when time for assisted reproductive technology is limited, e.g. for emergency fertility preservation in cancer patients.
It has been proposed that the success of these methods is based on the continuous growth of multiple cohorts ("waves") of follicles throughout the menstrual cycle which leads to the availability of ovarian follicles for ovarian controlled stimulation at several time points. Though several preliminary studies have been published, their scientific evidence has not been considered as being strong enough to integrate these results into routine clinical practice. This work aims at adding further scientific evidence about the efficiency of variable-start protocols and underpinning the theory of follicular waves by using mathematical modelling and numerical simulations. For this purpose, we have modified and coupled two previously published models, one describing the time course of hormones and one describing competitive follicular growth in a normal menstrual cycle. The coupled model is used to test stimulation protocols in silico. Simulation results show the occurrence of follicles in a wave-like manner during a normal menstrual cycle and qualitatively predict the outcome of ovarian stimulation initiated at different time points of the menstrual cycle.
Mathematical models for bioregulatory networks can be based on different formalisms, depending on the quality of available data and the research question to be answered. Discrete boolean models can be constructed based on qualitative data, which are frequently available. On the other hand, continuous models in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can incorporate time-series data and give more detailed insight into the dynamics of the underlying system. A few years ago, a method based on multivariate polynomial interpolation and Hill functions has been developed for an automatic conversion of boolean models to systems of ordinary differential equations. This method is frequently used by modellers in systems biology today, but there are only a few results available about the conservation of mathematical structures and properties across the formalisms. Here, we consider subsets of the phase space where some components stay fixed, called trap spaces, and demonstrate how boolean trap spaces can be linked to invariant sets in the continuous state space. This knowledge is of practical relevance since finding trap spaces in the boolean setting, which is relatively easy, allows for the construction of reduced ODE models.
The reproductive cycle of mono-ovulatory species such as cows or humans is known to show two or more waves of follicular growth and decline between two successive ovulations. Within each wave, there is one dominant follicle escorted by subordinate follicles of varying number. Under the surge of the luteinizing hormone a growing dominant follicle ovulates. Rarely the number of ovulating follicles exceeds one. In the biological literature, the change of hormonal concentrations and individually varying numbers of follicular receptors are made responsible for the selection of exactly one dominant follicle, yet a clear cause has not been identified. In this paper, we suggest a synergistic explanation based on competition, formulated by a parsimoniously defined system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that quantifies the time evolution of multiple follicles and their competitive interaction during one wave. Not discriminating between follicles, growth and decline are given by fixed rates. Competition is introduced via a growth-suppressing term, equally supported by all follicles. We prove that the number of dominant follicles is determined exclusively by the ratio of follicular growth and competition. This number turns out to be independent of the number of subordinate follicles. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding dynamical system is investigated rigorously, where we demonstrate that the ω-limit set only contains fixed points. When also including follicular decline, our ODEs perfectly resemble ultrasound data of bovine follicles. Implications for the involved but not explicitly modeled hormones are discussed.
Boolean delay equations (BDEs), with their relatively simple and intuitive mode of
modelling, have been used in many research areas including, for example, climate
dynamics and earthquake propagation. Their application to biological systems has been
scarce and limited to the molecular level. Here, we derive and present two BDE models.
One is directly derived from a previously published ordinary differential equation
(ODE) model for the bovine estrous cycle, whereas the second model includes a
modification of a particular biological mechanism. We not only compare the simulation
results from the BDE models with the trajectories of the ODE model, but also validate
the BDE models with two additional numerical experiments. One experiment induces
a switch in the oscillatory pattern upon changes in the model parameters, and the
other simulates the administration of a hormone that is known to shift the estrous
cycle in time. The models presented here are the first BDE models for hormonal
oscillators, and the first BDE models for drug administration. Even though automatic
parameter estimation still remains challenging, our results support the role of BDEs
as a framework for the systematic modelling of complex biological oscillators.
We present a modelling and simulation framework for the dynamics of ovarian follicles and key hormones along the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis throughout consecutive human menstrual cycles. All simulation results (hormone concentrations and ovarian follicle sizes) are in biological units and can easily be compared to clinical data. The model takes into account variability in follicles' response to stimulating hormones, which introduces variability between cycles. The growth of ovarian follicles in waves is an emergent property in our model simulations and further supports the hypothesis that follicular waves are also present in humans. We use Approximate Bayesian Computation and cluster analysis to construct a population of virtual subjects and to study parameter distributions and sensitivities. The model can be used to compare and optimize treatment protocols for ovarian hyperstimulation, thus potentially forming the integral part of a clinical decision support system in reproductive endocrinology.
The androgen system across the menstrual cycle: Hormonal, (epi-)genetic and psychometric alterations
(2022)
Hypokalemia, characterized by too low serum potassium levels, is a severe mineral disorder which can be life threatening. It is increasingly diagnosed in veterinarian healthcare and a topic of ongoing research. In this paper, we explore the different originating conditions of hypokalemia: reduced potassium intake, increased excretion, acid-base disturbances, or increased insulin, by using a dynamic mathematical model for potassium balance in non-lactating and lactating cows.
Simulations are compared with literature. The results give insights into the network dynamics and point to scenarios on which experimental effort should be focused. Application of mathematical models can assist in experimental planning as well as the reduction, refinement and replacement of animal experiments.
Markov state models (MSMs) have received an unabated increase in popularity in recent years, as they are very
well suited for the identification and analysis of metastable states and related kinetics. However, the state-of-the-art Markov state modeling methods and tools enforce the fulfillment of a
detailed balance condition, restricting their applicability to equilibrium MSMs. To date, they are unsuitable to deal with
general dominant data structures including cyclic processes, which are essentially associated with nonequilibrium systems.
To overcome this limitation, we developed a generalization of the common robust Perron Cluster Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) method, termed generalized PCCA (G-PCCA). This method handles equilibrium and nonequilibrium simulation data, utilizing Schur vectors instead of eigenvectors. G-PCCA is not limited to the detection of metastable states but enables the identification of dominant structures in a general sense, unraveling cyclic processes. This is exemplified by application of G-PCCA on nonequilibrium molecular dynamics data of the Amyloid β (1−40) peptide, periodically driven by an oscillating electric field.
The Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+) has become a popular spectral clustering algorithm for coarse-graining transition matrices of nearly decomposable Markov chains with transition states. Originally developed for reversible Markov chains, the algorithm only worked for transition matrices with real eigenvalues. In this paper, we therefore extend the theoretical framework of PCCA+ to Markov chains with a complex eigen-decomposition. We show that by replacing a complex conjugate pair of eigenvectors by their real and imaginary components, a real representation of the same subspace is obtained, which is suitable for the cluster analysis. We show that our approach leads to the same results as the generalized PCCA+ (GPCCA), which replaces the complex eigen-decomposition by a conceptually more difficult real Schur decomposition. We apply the method on non-reversible Markov chains, including circular chains, and demonstrate its efficiency compared to GPCCA. The experiments are performed in the Matlab programming language and codes are provided.