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We utilize the theory of coherent sets to build Markov state models for non- equilibrium molecular dynamical systems. Unlike for systems in equilibrium, “meta- stable” sets in the non-equilibrium case may move as time evolves. We formalize this concept by relying on the theory of coherent sets, based on this we derive finite-time non-stationary Markov state models, and illustrate the concept and its main differences to equilibrium Markov state modeling on simple, one-dimensional examples.
We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one.