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We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one.
We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one.
We present a numerical method to model dynamical systems from data. We use the recently introduced method Scalable Probabilistic Approximation (SPA) to project points from a Euclidean space to convex polytopes and represent these projected states of a system in new, lower-dimensional coordinates denoting their position in the polytope. We then introduce a specific nonlinear transformation to construct a model of the dynamics in the polytope and to transform back into the original state space. To overcome the potential loss of information from the projection to a lower-dimensional polytope, we use memory in the sense of the delay-embedding theorem of Takens. By construction, our method produces stable models. We illustrate the capacity of the method to reproduce even chaotic dynamics and attractors with multiple connected components on various examples.
Given a time-dependent stochastic process with trajectories x(t) in a space $\Omega$, there may be sets such that the corresponding trajectories only very rarely cross the boundaries of these sets. We can analyze such a process in terms of metastability or coherence. Metastable sets M are defined in space $M\subset\Omega$, coherent sets $M(t)\subset\Omega$ are defined in space and time. Hence, if we extend the space by the time-variable t, coherent sets are metastable sets in $\Omega\times[0,\infty]$. This relation can be exploited, because there already exist spectral algorithms for the identification of metastable sets. In this article we show that these well-established spectral algorithms (like PCCA+) also identify coherent sets of non-autonomous dynamical systems. For the identification of coherent sets, one has to compute a discretization (a matrix T) of the transfer operator of the process using a space-timediscretization scheme. The article gives an overview about different time-discretization schemes and shows their applicability in two different fields of application.
We prove the Fréchet differentiability with respect to the drift of Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators associated to time-inhomogeneous ordinary stochastic differential equations. This result relies on a similar differentiability result for pathwise expectations of path functionals of the solution of the stochastic differential equation, which we establish using Girsanov's formula. We demonstrate the significance of our result in the context of dynamical systems and operator theory, by proving continuously differentiable drift dependence of the simple eigen- and singular values and the corresponding eigen- and singular functions of the stochastic Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators.
We consider autocovariance operators of a stationary stochastic process on a Polish space that is embedded into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate how empirical estimates of these operators converge along realizations of the process under various conditions. In particular, we examine ergodic and strongly mixing processes and obtain several asymptotic results as well as finite sample error bounds. We provide applications of our theory in terms of consistency results for kernel PCA with dependent data and the conditional mean embedding of transition probabilities. Finally, we use our approach to examine the nonparametric estimation of Markov transition operators and highlight how our theory can give a consistency analysis for a large family of spectral analysis methods including kernel-based dynamic mode decomposition.
We consider time-continuous Markovian discrete-state dynamics on random networks of interacting agents and study the large population limit. The dynamics are projected onto low-dimensional collective variables given by the shares of each discrete state in the system, or in certain subsystems, and general conditions for the convergence of the collective variable dynamics to a mean-field ordinary differential equation are proved. We discuss the convergence to this mean-field limit for a continuous-time noisy version of the so-called "voter model" on Erdős-Rényi random graphs, on the stochastic block model, as well as on random regular graphs. Moreover, a heterogeneous population of agents is studied. For each of these types of interaction networks, we specify the convergence conditions in dependency on the corresponding model parameters.
Collective variables (CVs) are low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional system states. They are used to gain insights into complex emergent dynamical behaviors of processes on networks. The relation between CVs and network measures is not well understood and its derivation typically requires detailed knowledge of both the dynamical system and the network topology. In this Letter, we present a data-driven method for algorithmically learning and understanding CVs for binary-state spreading processes on networks of arbitrary topology. We demonstrate our method using four example networks: the stochastic block model, a ring-shaped graph, a random regular graph, and a scale-free network generated by the Albert-Barabási model. Our results deliver evidence for the existence of low-dimensional CVs even in cases that are not yet understood theoretically.
We investigate opinion dynamics based on an agent-based model and are interested in predicting the evolution of the percentages of the entire agent population that share an opinion. Since these opinion percentages can be seen as an aggregated observation of the full system state, the individual opinions of each agent, we view this in the framework of the Mori–Zwanzig projection formalism. More specifically, we show how to estimate a nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) with memory from data given by a time series of opinion percentages, and discuss its prediction capacities for various specific topologies of the agent interaction network. We demonstrate that the inclusion of memory terms significantly improves the prediction quality on examples with different network topologies.
Reaction coordinates (RCs) are indicators of hidden, low-dimensional mechanisms that govern the long-term behavior of high-dimensional stochastic processes. We present a novel and general variational characterization of optimal RCs and provide conditions for their existence. Optimal RCs are minimizers of a certain loss function, and reduced models based on them guarantee a good approximation of the statistical long-term properties of the original high-dimensional process. We show that for slow-fast systems, metastable systems, and other systems with known good RCs, the novel theory reproduces previous insight. Remarkably, for reversible systems, the numerical effort required to evaluate the loss function scales only with the variability of the underlying, low-dimensional mechanism, and not with that of the full system. The theory provided lays the foundation for an efficient and data-sparse computation of RCs via modern machine learning techniques.