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Due to the current and foreseeable shifts towards carbon dioxide neutral energy production, which will likely result in balancing fluctuating renewable energy generation by transforming power-to-gas-to-power as well as building a large-scale hydrogen transport infrastructure, the trading and transport operations of gas will become more dynamic, volatile, and hence also less predictable.
Therefore, computer-aided support in terms of rapid simulation and control optimization will further broaden its importance for gas network dispatching.
In this paper, we aim to contribute and openly publish two new mathematical models for regulators, also referred to as control valves, which together with compressors make up the most complex and involved types of active elements in gas network infrastructures.
They provide direct control over gas networks but are in turn controlled via target values, also known as set-point values, themselves.
Our models incorporate up to six dynamical target values to define desired transient states for the elements' local vicinity within the network.
That is, each pair of every two target values defines a bounding box for the inlet pressure, outlet pressure as well as the passing mass flow of gas.
In the proposed models, those target values are prioritized differently and are constantly in competition with each other, which can only be resolved dynamically at run-time of either a simulation or optimization process.
Besides careful derivation, we compare simulation and optimization results with predictions of the widely adopted commercial simulation tool SIMONE, serving as our substitute for actual real-world transport operations.
Due to the coexistence of different gases in underground storage, this work explores the interface stability's impact on energy storage, specifically during the injection and withdrawal of gases such as hydrogen and natural gas. A new approach of combing simulation and time series analysis is used to accurately predict instability modes in energy systems. Our simulation is based on the 2D Euler equations, solved using a second-order finite volume method with a staggered grid. The solution is validated by comparing them to experimental data and analytical solutions, accurately predicting the instability's behavior. We use time series analysis and state-of-the-art regime-switching methods to identify critical features of the interface dynamics, providing crucial insights into system optimization and design.
High-dimensional high-frequency time series prediction with a mixed integer optimisation method
(2023)
We study a functional autoregressive model for high-frequency time series. We approach the estimation of the proposed model using a Mixed Integer Optimisation method. The proposed model captures serial dependence in the functional time series by including high-dimensional curves. We illustrate our methodology on large-scale natural gas network data. Our model provides more accurate day-ahead hourly out-of-sample forecast of the gas in and out-flows compared to alternative prediction models.