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Due to the coexistence of different gases in underground storage, this work explores the interface stability's impact on energy storage, specifically during the injection and withdrawal of gases such as hydrogen and natural gas. A new approach of combing simulation and time series analysis is used to accurately predict instability modes in energy systems. Our simulation is based on the 2D Euler equations, solved using a second-order finite volume method with a staggered grid. The solution is validated by comparing them to experimental data and analytical solutions, accurately predicting the instability's behavior. We use time series analysis and state-of-the-art regime-switching methods to identify critical features of the interface dynamics, providing crucial insights into system optimization and design.
Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply anddemand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks
(2021)
Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21%.
The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness.
High-dimensional high-frequency time series prediction with a mixed integer optimisation method
(2023)
We study a functional autoregressive model for high-frequency time series. We approach the estimation of the proposed model using a Mixed Integer Optimisation method. The proposed model captures serial dependence in the functional time series by including high-dimensional curves. We illustrate our methodology on large-scale natural gas network data. Our model provides more accurate day-ahead hourly out-of-sample forecast of the gas in and out-flows compared to alternative prediction models.