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Modeling functional time series and mixed-type predictors with partially functional autoregressions*
(2021)
In many business and economics studies, researchers have sought to measure the dynamic dependence of curves with high-dimensional mixed-type predictors. We propose a partially functional autoregressive model (pFAR) where the serial dependence of curves is controlled by coefficient operators that are defined on a two-dimensional surface, and the individual and group effects of mixed-type predictors are estimated with a two-layer regularization. We develop an efficient estimation with the proven asymptotic properties of consistency and sparsity. We show how to choose the sieve and tuning parameters in regularization based on a forward-looking criterion. In addition to the asymptotic properties, numerical validation suggests that the dependence structure is accurately detected. The implementation of the pFAR within a real-world analysis of dependence in German daily natural gas flow curves, with seven lagged curves and 85 scalar predictors, produces superior forecast accuracy and an insightful understanding of the dynamics of natural gas supply and demand for the municipal, industry, and border nodes, respectively.
KOBV Jahresbericht 2019-2020
(2021)
Der aktuelle KOBV-Jahresbericht informiert darüber, was in den Mitgliedsbibliotheken und Partnerprojekten in den letzten beiden Jahren passiert ist und was sich in der Verbundzentrale und in der Bibliothekslandschaft ändert. Die Ausgabe 2019/2020 enthält den Schwerpunktteil »Digitalisierung« mit verschiedenen Perspektiven auf die digitale Arbeitswelt.
SCIP-Jack: An exact high performance solver for Steiner tree problems in graphs and related problems
(2021)
The Steiner tree problem in graphs is one of the classic combinatorial
optimization problems. Furthermore, many related problems, such as the rectilinear Steiner tree problem or the maximum-weight connected subgraph problem, have been described in the literature—with a wide range of practical applications. To embrace this wealth of problem classes, the solver SCIP-JACK has been developed as an exact framework for classic Steiner tree and 11 related problems. Moreover,
the solver comes with both shared- and distributed memory extensions by means of the UG framework. Besides its versatility, SCIP-JACK is highly competitive for most of the 12 problem classes it can solve, as for instance demonstrated by its top ranking in the recent PACE 2018 Challenge. This article describes the current state of SCIP-JACK and provides up-to-date computational results, including several instances that can now be solved for the first time to optimality.
In this article, we introduce the Maximum Diversity Assortment Selection Problem (MDASP), which is a generalization of the two-dimensional Knapsack Problem (2D-KP). Given a set of rectangles and a rectangular container, the goal of 2D-KP is to determine a subset of rectangles that can be placed in the container without overlapping, i.e., a feasible assortment, such that a maximum area is covered. MDASP is to determine a set of feasible assortments, each of them covering a certain minimum threshold of the container, such that the diversity among them is maximized. Thereby, diversity is defined as the minimum or average normalized Hamming distance of all assortment pairs. MDASP was the topic of the 11th AIMMS-MOPTA Competition in 2019. The methods described in this article and the resulting computational results won the contest. In the following, we give a definition of the problem, introduce a mathematical model and solution approaches, determine upper bounds on the diversity, and conclude with computational experiments conducted on test instances derived from the 2D-KP literature.
Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply and demand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks
(2021)
Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21$\%$.
The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness.
Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply anddemand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks
(2021)
Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21%.
The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness.
In the transition towards a pure hydrogen infrastructure, utilizing the existing natural gas infrastructure is a necessity. In this study, the maximal technically feasible injection of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transmission network is analysed with respect to regulatory limits regarding the gas quality. We propose a transient tracking model based on the general pooling problem including linepack. The analysis is conducted using real-world hourly gas flow data on a network of about 10,000 km length.
Compressible flows appear in many natural and technological processes, for instance, the flow of natural gases in a pipe system. Thus, a detailed study of the stability of tangential velocity discontinuity in compressible media is relevant and necessary. The first early investigation in two-dimensional (2D) media was given more than 70 years ago. In this article, we continue investigating the stability in three-dimensional (3D) media. The idealized statement of this problem in an infinite spatial space was studied by Syrovatskii in 1954. However, the omission of the absolute sign of cos θ with θ being the angle between vectors of velocity and wave number in a certain inequality produced the inaccurate conclusion that the flow is always unstable for entire values of the Mach number M. First, we revisit this case to arrive at the correct conclusion, namely that the discontinuity surface is stabilized for a large Mach number with a given value of the angle θ. Next, we introduce a real finite spatial system such that it is bounded by solid walls along the flow direction. We show that the discontinuity surface is stable if and only if the dispersion relation equation has only real roots, with a large value of the Mach number; otherwise, the surface is always unstable. In particular, we show that a smaller critical value of the Mach number is required to make the flow in a narrow channel stable.