Open Access

Simulation-based digital twins have emerged as a powerful tool for evaluating the mechanical response of bridges. As virtual representations of physical systems, digital twins can provide a wealth of information that complements traditional inspection and monitoring data. By incorporating virtual sensors and predictive maintenance strategies, they have the potential to improve our understanding of the behavior and performance of bridges over time. However, as bridges age and undergo regular loading and extreme events, their structural characteristics change, often differing from the predictions of their initial design. Digital twins must be continuously adapted to reflect these changes. In this article, we present a Bayesian framework for updating simulation-based digital twins in the context of bridges. Our approach integrates information from measurements to account for inaccuracies in the simulation model and quantify uncertainties. Through its implementation and assessment, this work demonstrates the potential for digital twins to provide a reliable and up-to-date representation of bridge behavior, helping to inform decision-making for maintenance and management.

Simulation-based digital twins must provide accurate, robust and reliable digital representations of their physical counterparts. Quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions plays, therefore, a key role in making better-informed decisions that impact the actual system. The update of the simulation model based on data must be then carefully implemented. When applied to complex standing structures such as bridges, discrepancies between the computational model and the real system appear as model bias, which hinders the trustworthiness of the digital twin and increases its uncertainty. Classical Bayesian updating approaches aiming to infer the model parameters often fail at compensating for such model bias, leading to overconfident and unreliable predictions. In this paper, two alternative model bias identification approaches are evaluated in the context of their applicability to digital twins of bridges. A modularized version of Kennedy and O'Hagan's approach and another one based on Orthogonal Gaussian Processes are compared with the classical Bayesian inference framework in a set of representative benchmarks. Additionally, two novel extensions are proposed for such models: the inclusion of noise-aware kernels and the introduction of additional variables not present in the computational model through the bias term. The integration of such approaches in the digital twin corrects the predictions, quantifies their uncertainty, estimates noise from unknown physical sources of error and provides further insight into the system by including additional pre-existing information without modifying the computational model.