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Importance sampling is a popular variance reduction method for Monte Carlo estimation, where an evident question is how to design good proposal distributions. While in most cases optimal (zero-variance) estimators are theoretically possible, in practice only suboptimal proposal distributions are available and it can often be observed numerically that those can reduce statistical performance significantly, leading to large relative errors and therefore counteracting the original intention. Previous analysis on importance sampling has often focused on asymptotic arguments that work well in a large deviations regime. In this article, we provide lower and upper bounds on the relative error in a nonasymptotic setting. They depend on the deviation of the actual proposal from optimality, and we thus identify potential robustness issues that importance sampling may have, especially in high dimensions. We particularly focus on path sampling problems for diffusion processes with nonvanishing noise, for which generating good proposals comes with additional technical challenges. We provide numerous numerical examples that support our findings and demonstrate the applicability of the derived bounds.
The recent advances in machine learning in various fields of applications can be largely attributed to the rise of deep learning (DL) methods and architectures. Despite being a key technology behind autonomous cars, image processing, speech recognition, etc., a notorious problem remains the lack of theoretical understanding of DL and related interpretability and (adversarial) robustness issues. Understanding the specifics of DL, as compared to, say, other forms of nonlinear regression methods or statistical learning, is interesting from a mathematical perspective, but at the same time it is of crucial importance in practice: treating neural networks as mere black boxes might be sufficient in certain cases, but many applications require waterproof performance guarantees and a deeper understanding of what could go wrong and why it could go wrong. It is probably fair to say that, despite being mathematically well founded as a method to approximate complicated functions, DL is mostly still more like modern alchemy that is firmly in the hands of engineers and computer scientists. Nevertheless, it is evident that certain specifics of DL that could explain its success in applications demands systematic mathematical approaches. In this work, we review robustness issues of DL and particularly bridge concerns and attempts from approximation theory to statistical learning theory. Further, we review Bayesian Deep Learning as a means for uncertainty quantification and rigorous explainability.
One of the main challenges in molecular dynamics is overcoming the ‘timescale barrier’: in many realistic molecular systems, biologically important rare transitions occur on timescales that are not accessible to direct numerical simulation, even on the largest or specifically dedicated supercomputers. This article discusses how to circumvent the timescale barrier by a collection of transfer operator-based techniques that have emerged from dynamical systems theory, numerical mathematics and machine learning over the last two decades. We will focus on how transfer operators can be used to approximate the dynamical behaviour on long timescales, review the introduction of this approach into molecular dynamics, and outline the respective theory, as well as the algorithmic development, from the early numerics-based methods, via variational reformulations, to modern data-based techniques utilizing and improving concepts from machine learning. Furthermore, its relation to rare event simulation techniques will be explained, revealing a broad equivalence of variational principles for long-time quantities in molecular dynamics. The article will mainly take a mathematical perspective and will leave the application to real-world molecular systems to the more than 1000 research articles already written on this subject.
One of the main challenges in molecular dynamics is overcoming the “timescale barrier”, a phrase used to describe that in many realistic molecular systems, biologically important rare transitions occur on timescales that are not accessible to direct numerical simulation, not even on the largest or specifically dedicated supercomputers. This article discusses how to circumvent the timescale barrier by a collection of transfer operator-based techniques that have emerged from dynamical systems theory, numerical mathematics, and machine learning over the last two decades. We will focus on how transfer operators can be used to approximate the dynamical behavior on long timescales, review the introduction of this approach into molecular dynamics, and outline the respective theory as well as the algorithmic development from the early numerics-based methods, via variational reformulations, to modern data-based techniques utilizing and
improving concepts from machine learning. Furthermore, its relation to rare event simulation techniques will be explained, revealing a broad equivalence of variational principles for long-time quantities in MD. The article will mainly take a mathematical perspective and will leave the application to real-world molecular systems to the more than 1000 research articles already written on this subject.
In this paper, we study Jarzynski's equality and fluctuation theorems for diffusion processes. While some of the results considered in the current work are known in the (mainly physics) literature, we review and generalize these nonequilibrium theorems using mathematical arguments, therefore enabling further investigations in the mathematical community. On the numerical side, variance reduction approaches such as importance sampling method are studied in order to compute free energy differences based on Jarzynski's equality.
Markov jump processes are widely used to model natural and engineered processes. In the context of biological or chemical applications one typically refers to the chemical master equation (CME), which models the evolution of the probability mass of any copy-number combination of the interacting particles. When many interacting particles (“species”) are considered, the complexity of the CME quickly increases, making direct numerical simulations impossible. This is even more problematic when one aims at controlling the Markov jump processes defined by the CME.
In this work, we study both open loop and feedback optimal control problems of the Markov jump processes in the case that the controls can only be switched at fixed control stages. Based on Kurtz’s limit theorems, we prove the convergence of the respective control value functions of the underlying Markov decision problem as the copy numbers of the species go to infinity. In the case of the optimal control problem on a finite time-horizon, we propose a hybrid control policy algorithm to overcome the difficulties due to the curse of dimensionality when the copy number of the involved species is large. Two numerical examples demonstrate the suitability of both the analysis and the proposed algorithms.
The article surveys and extends variational formulations of the thermodynamic free
energy and discusses their information-theoretic content from the perspective of mathematical statistics. We revisit the well-known Jarzynski equality for nonequilibrium free energy sampling within the framework of importance sampling and Girsanov change-of-measure transformations. The implications of the different variational formulations for designing efficient stochastic optimization and nonequilibrium simulation algorithms for computing free energies are discussed and illustrated.
The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor “on the fly” during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.
Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sampling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change of measure which is realized by adding a control force to the original dynamics. For certain exponential type expectation, the corresponding control force of the optimal change of measure leads to a zero-variance estimator and is related to the solution of a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellmann equation. We focus on certain diffusions with both slow and fast variables, and the main result is that we obtain an upper bound of the relative error for the importance sampling estimators with control obtained from the limiting dynamics. We demonstrate our approximation strategy with an illustrative numerical example.