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We study System Dynamics models with several free parameters that can be altered by the user. We assume that the user's goal is to achieve a certain dynamic behavior of the model by varying these parameters. In order to the find best possible combination of parameter settings, several automatic parameter tuning methods are described in the literature and readily available within existing System Dynamic software packages. We give a survey on the available techniques in the market and describe their theoretical background. Some of these methods are already six decades old, and meanwhile newer and more powerful optimization methods have emerged in the mathematical literature. One major obstacle for their direct use are tabled data in System Dynamics models, which are usually interpreted as piecewise linear functions. However, modern optimization methods usually require smooth functions which are twice continuously differentiable. We overcome this problem by a smooth spline interpolation of the tabled data. We use a test set of three complex System Dynamic models from the literature, describe their individual transition into optimization problems, and demonstrate the applicability of modern optimization algorithms to these System Dynamics Optimization problems.
We study System Dynamics models with several free parameters that can be altered by the user. We assume that the user's goal is to achieve a certain dynamic behavior of the model by varying these parameters. In order to find best possible combination of parameter settings, several automatic parameter tuning methods are described in the literature and readily available within existing System Dynamic software packages. We give a survey on the available techniques in the market and describe their theoretical background. Some of these methods are already six decades old, and meanwhile newer and more powerful optimization methods have emerged in the mathematical literature. One major obstacle for their direct use are tabled data in System Dynamics models, which are usually interpreted as piecewise linear functions. However, modern optimization methods usually require smooth functions which are twice continuously differentiable. We overcome this problem by a smooth spline interpolation of the tabled data. We use a test set of three complex System Dynamic models from the literature, describe their individual transition into optimization problems, and demonstrate the applicability of modern optimization algorithms to these System Dynamics Optimization problems.
We present a new strategy for the direct optimization of the values of policy functions. This approach is particularly well suited to model actors with a global perspective on the system and relies heavily on modern mathematical white-box optimization methods. We demonstrate our strategy on two classical models: market growth and World2. Each model is first transformed into an optimization problem by defining how the actor can influence the models' dynamics and by choosing objective functions to measure improvements. To improve comparability between different runs, we also introduce a comparison measure for possible interventions. We solve the optimization problems, discuss the resulting policies and compare them to the existing results from the literature. In particular, we present a run of the World2 model which significantly improves the published “towards a global equilibrium” run with equal cost of intervention.
System Dynamic models describe physical, technical, economical, or social systems using differential and algebraic equations. In their purest form, these models are intended to describe the evolution of a system from a given initial state. In many applications, it is possible to intervene with the system in order to obtain a desired dynamic or a certain outcome in the end. On the mathematical side, this leads to control problems, where aside from the simulation one has to find optimal intervention functions over time that maximize a specific objective function. Using a dynamical model for the utilization of a natural nonrenewable resource of Behrens as a demonstrator example, we present two main mathematical solution strategies. They are distinguished by the quality certificate on their respective solution: one leads to proven local optimal solution, and the other technique yields proven global optimal solutions. We present implementational and numerical issues, and a comparison of both methods.
The System Dynamics (SD) methodology is a framework for modeling and simulating the dynamic behavior of socioeconomic systems. Characteristic for the description of such systems is the occurrence of feedback loops together with stocks and flows. The mathematical equations that describe the system are usually ordinary differential equations and nonlinear algebraic constraints. Seemingly simple systems can show a nonintuitive, unpredictable behavior over time. Controlling a dynamical system means to specify potential interventions from outside that should keep the system on the desired track, and to define an evaluation schema to compare different controls among each other, so that a ``best'' control can be defined in a meaningful way. The central question is how to compute such globally optimal control for a given SD model, that allows the transition of the system into a desired state with minimum effort. We propose a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) reformulation of the System Dynamics Optimization (SDO) problem. MINLP problems can be solved by linear programming based branch-and-bound approach. We demonstrate that standard MINLP solvers are not able to solve SDO problem. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce a special-tailored bound propagation method. Numerical results for these test cases are presented.
Identification of trade-offs for sustainable manufacturing of a Bamboo Bike by System Dynamics
(2013)
We develop a generic System Dynamic model to simulate the production, machines, employees, waste, and capital flows of a manufacturing company. In a second step, this model is specialised by defining suit-able input data to represent a bicycle manufacturing company in a developing country. We monitor a set of sustainability indicators to understand the social, environmental and economic impact of the company, and to estimate managerial decisions to be taken in order to improve on these criteria. We show that the social and environmental situation can be improved over time without sacrificing the economic success of the company's business.
Identification of trade-offs for sustainable manufacturing of a Bamboo Bike by System Dynamics
(2013)
We develop a generic System Dynamic model to simulate the production, machines, employees, waste, and capital flows of a manufacturing company. In a second step, this model is specialised by defining suit-able input data to represent a bicycle manufacturing company in a developing country. We monitor a set of sustainability indicators to understand the social, environmental and economic impact of the company, and to estimate managerial decisions to be taken in order to improve on these criteria. We show that the social and environmental situation can be improved over time without sacrificing the economic success of the company's business.
It is clear that a transformation to sustainable value creation is needed, because business as usual is not an option for preserving competitive advantages of leading industries. What does that mean? This contribution proposes possible approaches for a shift in existing manufacturing paradigms. In a first step, sustainability aspects from the German Sustainability Strategy and from the tools of life cycle sustainability assessment are chosen to match areas of a value creation process. Within these aspects are indicators, which can be measured within a manufacturing process. Once these data are obtained they can be used to set up a mathematical linear pulse model of manufacturing in order to analyse the evolution of the system over time, that is the transition process, by using a system dynamics approach. An increase of technology development by a factor of 2 leads to an increase of manufacturing but also to an increase of climate change. Compensation measures need to be taken. This can be done by e.g. taking money from the GDP (as an indicator of the aspect ``macroeconomic performance''). The value of the arc from that building block towards climate change must then be increased by a factor of 10. The choice of independent and representative indicators or aspects shall be validated and double-checked for their significance with the help of multi-criteria mixed-integer programming optimisation methods.
In this article we investigate methods to solve a fundamental task in gas transportation, namely the validation of nomination problem: Given a gas transmission network consisting of passive pipelines and active, controllable elements and given an amount of gas at every entry and exit point of the network, find operational settings for all active elements such that there exists a network state meeting all physical, technical, and legal constraints.
We describe a two-stage approach to solve the resulting complex and numerically difficult feasibility problem. The first phase consists of four distinct algorithms applying linear, and methods for complementarity constraints to compute possible settings for the discrete decisions. The second phase employs a precise continuous programming model of the gas network. Using this setup, we are able to compute high quality solutions to real-world industrial instances that are significantly larger than networks that have appeared in the mathematical programming literature before.
In this article we investigate methods to solve a fundamental task in gas transportation, namely the validation of nomination problem: Given a gas transmission network consisting of passive pipelines and active, controllable elements and given an amount of gas at every entry and exit point of the network, find operational settings for all active elements such that there exists a network state meeting all physical, technical, and legal constraints.
We describe a two-stage approach to solve the resulting complex and numerically difficult mixed-integer non-convex nonlinear feasibility problem. The first phase consists of four distinct algorithms facilitating mixed-integer linear, mixed-integer nonlinear, reduced nonlinear, and complementarity constrained methods to compute possible settings for the discrete decisions. The second phase employs a precise continuous nonlinear programming model of the gas network. Using this setup, we are able to compute high quality solutions to real-world industrial instances whose size is significantly larger than networks that have appeared in the literature previously.
We consider problems concerning the scheduling of a set of trains on a single track. For every pair of trains there is a minimum headway, which every train must wait before it enters the track after another train. The speed of each train is also given. Hence for every schedule - a sequence of trains - we may compute the time that is at least needed for all trains to travel along the track in the given order. We give the solution to three problems: the fastest schedule, the average schedule, and the problem of quantile schedules. The last problem is a question about the smallest upper bound on the time of a given fraction of all possible schedules. We show how these problems are related to the travelling salesman problem. We prove NP-completeness of the fastest schedule problem, NP-hardness of quantile of schedules problem, and polynomiality of the average schedule problem. We also describe some algorithms for all three problems. In the solution of the quantile problem we give an algorithm, based on a reverse search method, generating with polynomial delay all Eulerian multigraphs with the given degree sequence and a bound on the number of such multigraphs. A better bound is left as an open question.
We present a novel heuristic to identify feasible solutions of a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem arising in natural gas transportation: the selection of new pipelines to enhance the network's capacity to a desired level in a cost-efficient way. We solve this problem in a linear programming based branch-and-cut approach, where we deal with the nonlinearities by linear outer approximation and spatial branching. At certain nodes of the branching tree, we compute a KKT point of a nonlinear relaxation. Based on the information from the KKT point we alter some of the binary variables in a locally promising way exploiting our problem-specific structure. On a test set of real-world instances, we are able to increase the chance of identifying feasible solutions by some order of magnitude compared to standard MINLP heuristics that are already built in the general-purpose MINLP solver SCIP.
We present a novel heuristic algorithm to identify feasible solutions of a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem arising in natural gas transportation: the selection of new pipelines to enhance the network's capacity to a desired level in a cost-efficient way. We solve this problem in a linear programming based branch-and-cut approach, where we deal with the nonlinearities by linear outer approximation and spatial branching. At certain nodes of the branching tree, we compute a KKT point for a nonlinear relaxation. Based on the information from the KKT point we alter some of the integer variables in a locally promising way. We describe this heuristic for general MINLPs and then show how to tailor the heuristic to exploit our problem-specific structure. On a test set of real-world instances, we are able to increase the chance of identifying feasible solutions by some order of magnitude compared to standard MINLP heuristics that are already built in the general-purpose MINLP solver SCIP.
One quarter of Europe's energy demand is provided by natural gas distributed through a vast pipeline network covering the whole of Europe. At a cost of 1 million Euro per km extending the European pipeline network is already a multi-billion Euro business. Therefore, automatic planning tools that support the decision process are desired. Unfortunately, current mathematical methods are not capable of solving the arising network design problems due to their size and complexity. In this article, we will show how to apply optimization methods that can converge to a proven global optimal solution. By introducing a new class of valid inequalities that improve the relaxation of our mixed-integer nonlinear programming model, we are able to speed up the necessary computations substantially.
We propose an approach to solve the validation of nominations problem using mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) methods. Our approach handles both the discrete settings and the nonlinear aspects of gas physics. Our main contribution is an innovative coupling of mixed-integer (linear) programming (MILP) methods with nonlinear programming (NLP) that exploits the special structure of a suitable approximation of gas physics, resulting in a global optimization method for this type of problem.
We consider a nonlinear nonconvex network design problem that arises in the extension of natural gas transmission networks. Given is such network with active and passive components, that is, valves, compressors, pressure regulators (active) and pipelines (passive), and a desired amount of flow at certain specified entry and exit nodes of the network. Besides flow conservation constraints in the nodes the flow must fulfill nonlinear nonconvex pressure loss constraints on the arcs subject to potential values (i.e., pressure levels) in both end nodes of each arc. Assume that there does not exist a feasible flow that fulfills all physical constraints and meets the desired entry and exit amounts. Then a natural question is where to extend the network by adding pipes in the most economic way such that this flow becomes feasible. Answering this question is computationally demanding because of the difficult problem structure. We use mixed-integer nonlinear programming techniques that rely on an outer approximation of the overall problem, and a branching on decision variables. We formulate a new class of valid inequalities (or cutting planes) which reduce the overall solution time when added to the formulation. We demonstrate the computational merits of our approach on test instances.
We consider a nonlinear nonconvex network design problem that arises, for example, in natural gas or water transmission networks. Given is such a network with active and passive components, that is, valves, compressors, control valves (active) and pipelines (passive), and a desired amount of flow at certain specified entry and exit nodes in the network. The active elements are associated with costs when used. Besides flow conservation constraints in the nodes, the flow must fulfill nonlinear nonconvex pressure loss constraints on the arcs subject to potential values (i.e., pressure levels) in both end nodes of each arc. The problem is to compute a cost minimal setting of the active components and numerical values for the flow and node potentials. We examine different (convex) relaxations for a subproblem of the design problem and benefit from them within a branch-and-bound approach. We compare different approaches based on nonlinear optimization numerically on a set of test instances.
The System Dynamics (SD) methodology is a framework for modeling and simulating the dynamic behavior of socioeconomic systems. Characteristic for the description of such systems is the occurrence of feedback loops together with stocks and flows. The mathematical equations that describe the system are usually nonlinear. Therefore seemingly simple systems can show a nonintuitive, nonpredictable behavior over time. Controlling a dynamical system means to define a desired final state in which the system should be, and to specify potential interventions from outside that should keep the system on the right track. The central question is how to compute such globally optimal control for a given SD model. We propose a branch-and-bound approach that is based on a bound propagation method, primal heuristics, and spatial branching. We apply our new SD-control method to a small System Dynamics model, that describes the evolution of a social-economic system over time. We examine the problem of steering this system on a sustainable consumption path.