### Refine

#### Document Type

- ZIB-Report (2)
- In Proceedings (1)

Bus rapid transit systems in developing and newly industrialized countries are often operated at the limits of passenger capacity. In particular, demand during morning and afternoon peaks is hardly or even not covered with available line plans. In order to develop demand-driven line plans, we use two mathematical models in the form of integer programming problem formulations. While the actual demand data is specified with origin-destination pairs, the arc-based model considers the demand over the arcs derived from the origin-destination demand. In order to test the accuracy of the models in terms of demand satisfaction, we simulate the optimal solutions and compare number of transfers and travel times. We also question the effect of a selfish route choice behavior which in theory results in a Braess-like paradox by increasing the number of transfers when system capacity is increased with additional lines.

Urban transportation systems are subject to a high level of variation and fluctuation in demand over the day. When this variation and fluctuation are observed in both time and space, it is crucial to develop line plans that are responsive to demand. A multi-period line planning approach that considers a changing demand during the planning horizon is proposed. If such systems are also subject to limitations of resources, a dynamic transfer of resources from one line to another throughout the planning horizon should also be considered. A mathematical modelling framework is developed to solve the line planning problem with transfer of resources during a finite length planning horizon of multiple periods. We analyze whether or not multi-period solutions outperform single period solutions in terms of feasibility and relevant costs. The importance of demand variation on multi-period solutions is investigated. We evaluate the impact of resource transfer constraints on the effectiveness of solutions. We also study the effect of line type designs and question the choice of period lengths along with the problem parameters that are significant for and sensitive to the optimality of solutions.