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Markov State Modelling as a concept for a coarse grained description of the essential kinetics of a molecular system in equilibrium has gained a lot of atten- tion recently. The last 10 years have seen an ever increasing publication activity on how to construct Markov State Models (MSMs) for very different molecular systems ranging from peptides to proteins, from RNA to DNA, and via molecu- lar sensors to molecular aggregation. Simultaneously the accompanying theory behind MSM building and approximation quality has been developed well be- yond the concepts and ideas used in practical applications. This article reviews the main theoretical results, provides links to crucial new developments, outlines the full power of MSM building today, and discusses the essential limitations still to overcome.
Markov State Modelling as a concept for a coarse grained description of the essential kinetics of a molecular system in equilibrium has gained a lot of atten- tion recently. The last 10 years have seen an ever increasing publication activity on how to construct Markov State Models (MSMs) for very different molecular systems ranging from peptides to proteins, from RNA to DNA, and via molecu- lar sensors to molecular aggregation. Simultaneously the accompanying theory behind MSM building and approximation quality has been developed well be- yond the concepts and ideas used in practical applications. This article reviews the main theoretical results, provides links to crucial new developments, outlines the full power of MSM building today, and discusses the essential limitations still to overcome.
Recently, a novel concept for the computation of essential features of the dynamics of Hamiltonian systems (such as molecular dynamics) has been proposed. The realization of this concept had been based on subdivision techniques applied to the Frobenius--Perron operator for the dynamical system. The present paper suggests an alternative but related concept that merges the conceptual advantages of the dynamical systems approach with the appropriate statistical physics framework. This approach allows to define the phrase ``conformation'' in terms of the dynamical behavior of the molecular system and to characterize the dynamical stability of conformations. In a first step, the frequency of conformational changes is characterized in statistical terms leading to the definition of some Markov operator $T$ that describes the corresponding transition probabilities within the canonical ensemble. In a second step, a discretization of $T$ via specific hybrid Monte Carlo techniques is shown to lead to a stochastic matrix $P$. With these theoretical preparations, an identification algorithm for conformations is applicable. It is demonstrated that the discretization of $T$ can be restricted to few essential degrees of freedom so that the combinatorial explosion of discretization boxes is prevented and biomolecular systems can be attacked. Numerical results for the n-pentane molecule and the triribonucleotide adenylyl\emph{(3'-5')}cytidylyl\emph{(3'-5')}cytidin are given and interpreted.
Recently, a novel concept for the computation of essential features of Hamiltonian systems (such as those arising in molecular dynamics) has been proposed. The realization of that concept was based on subdivision techniques applied to the Frobenius--Perron operator for the dynamical system. The present paper suggests an alternative but related concept based on statistical mechanics, which allows to attack realistic molecular systems. In a first step, the frequency of conformational changes is characterized in statistical terms leading to the definition of some Markov operator $T$ that describes the corresponding transition probabilities within the canonical ensemble. In a second step, a discretization of $T$ via hybrid Monte Carlo techniques (based on short term subtrajectories only) is shown to lead to a stochastic matrix $P$. With these theoretical preparations, an identification algorithm for conformations is applicable (to be presented elsewhere). Numerical results for the n-pentane molecule are given and interpreted.
We present a novel machine learning approach to understanding conformation dynamics of biomolecules. The approach combines kernel-based techniques that are popular in the machine learning community with transfer operator theory for analyzing dynamical systems in order to identify conformation dynamics based on molecular dynamics simulation data. We show that many of the prominent methods like Markov State Models, EDMD, and TICA can be regarded as special cases of this approach and that new efficient algorithms can be constructed based on this derivation. The results of these new powerful methods will be illustrated with several examples, in particular the alanine dipeptide and the protein NTL9.
The interaction potential of molecular systems which are typically used in molecular dynamics can be split into two parts of essentially different stiffness. The strong part of the potential forces the solution of the equations of motion to oscillate on a very small time scale. There is a strong need for eliminating the smallest time scales because they are a severe restriction for numerical long-term simulations of macromolecules. This leads to the idea of just freezing the high frequency degrees of freedom (bond stretching and bond angles). However, the naive way of doing this via holonomic constraints is bound to produce incorrect results. The paper presents a mathematically rigorous discussion of the limit situation in which the stiffness of the strong part of the potential is increased to infinity. It is demonstrated that the average of the limit solution indeed obeys a constrained Hamiltonian system but with a {\em corrected soft potential}. An explicit formula for the additive potential correction is given and its significant contribution is demonstrated in an illustrative example. It appears that this correcting potential is definitely not identical with the Fixman-potential as was repeatedly assumed in the literature.
The Car-Parrinello method for ab-initio molecular dynamics avoids the explicit minimization of energy functionals given by functional density theory in the context of the quantum adiabatic approximation (time-dependent Born-Oppenheimer approximation). Instead, it introduces a fictitious classical dynamics for the electronic orbitals. For many realistic systems this concept allowed first-principle computer simulations for the first time. In this paper we study the {\em quantitative} influence of the involved parameter $\mu$, the fictitious electronic mass of the method. In particular, we prove by use of a carefully chosen two-time-scale asymptotics that the deviation of the Car-Parrinello method from the adiabatic model is of order ${\rm O}(\mu^{1/2})$ --- provided one starts in the ground state of the electronic system and the electronic excitation spectrum satisfies a certain non-degeneracy condition. Analyzing a two-level model problem we prove that our result cannot be improved in general. Finally, we show how to use the gained quantitative insight for an automatic control of the unphysical ``fake'' kinetic energy of the method.
We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one.
We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one.
We propose the first, to our knowledge, coarse-grained modeling strategy for peptides where the effect of changes of the pH can be efficiently described. The idea is based on modeling the effects of the pH value on the main driving interactions. We use reference data from atomistic simulations and experimental databases and transfer their main physical features to the coarse-grained resolution according to the principle of “consistency across the scales”. The coarse-grained model is refined by finding a set of parameters that, when applied to peptides with different sequences and experimental properties, reproduces the experimental and atomistic data of reference. We use such a parameterized model for performing several numerical tests to check its transferability to other systems and to prove the universality of the related modeling strategy. We have tried systems with rather different responses to pH variations, showing a highly satisfactory performance of the model.
Model reduction of large Markov chains is an essential step in a wide array of techniques for understanding complex systems and for efficiently learning structures from high-dimensional data. We present a novel aggregation algorithm for compressing such chains that exploits a specific low-rank structure in the transition matrix which, e.g., is present in metastable systems, among others. It enables the recovery of the aggregates from a vastly undersampled transition matrix which in practical applications may gain a speedup of several orders of mag- nitude over methods that require the full transition matrix. Moreover, we show that the new technique is robust under perturbation of the transition matrix. The practical applicability of the new method is demonstrated by identifying a reduced model for the large-scale traffic flow patterns from real-world taxi trip data.
In Quantum Chemistry the field of Laser--Assisted Molecular Control'' has received a considerable amount of attention recently. One key problem in this new field is the simulation of the dynamical reaction of a molecule subjected to external radiation. This problem is described by the Schrödinger equation, which, after eigenfunction expansion, can be written in the form of a large system of ordinary differential equations, the solutions of which show a highly oscillatory behaviour. The oscillations with high frequencies and small amplitudes confine the stepsizes of any numerical integrator -- an effect, which, in turn, blows up the simulation time. Larger stepsizes can be expected by averaging these fast oscillations, thus smoothing the trajectories. Standard smoothing techniques (averaging, filtering) would kill the whole process and thus, lead to wrong numerical results. To avoid this unwanted effect and nevertheless speed up computations, this paper presents a quasiresonant smoothing algorithm (QRS). In QRS, a natural splitting parameter $\delta$ controls the smoothing properties. An adaptive QRS--version (AQRS) is presented which includes an error estimation scheme for choosing this parameter $\delta$ in order to meet a given accuracy requirement. In AQRS $\delta$ is permanently adapted to the solution properties for computing the chemically necessary information'' only. The performance of AQRS is demonstrated in several test problems from the field Laser--Assisted Selective Excitation of Molecules'' in which the external radiation is a picosecond laser pulse. In comparison with standard methods speedup factors of the order of $10^2$ are observed.
A Quasiresonant Smoothing Algorithm for the Fast Analysis of Selective Vibrational Excitation
(1993)
A quasiresonant smoothing algorithm for the fast analysis of selective vibrational excitation.
(1993)
One key problem in modern chemistry is the simulation of the dynamical reaction of a molecule subjected to external radiation. This is described by the Schrödinger equation, which, after eigenfunction expansion, can be written in form of a system of ordinary differential equations, whose solutions show a highly oscillatory behaviour. The oscillations with high frequencies and small amplitudes confine the stepsizes of any numerical integrator -- an effect, which, in turn, blows up the simulation time. Larger stepsizes can be expected by averaging these fast oscillations, thus smoothing the trajectories. This idea leads to the construction of a quasiresonant smoothing algorithm (QRS). In QRS, a natural and computationally available splitting parameter $\delta$ controls the smoothing properties. The performance of QRS is demonstrated in two applications treating the selective excitation of vibrational states by picosecond laser pulses. In comparison with standard methods a speedup factor of 60--100 is observed. A closer look to purely physically motivated quasiresonant approximations such as WFQRA shows some additional advantages of the above smoothing idea. Among these the possibility of an adaptive formulation of QRS via the parameter $\delta$ is of particular importance.
A route to the hydrodynamic limit of a reaction-diffusion master equation using gradient structures
(2023)
The reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is a lattice-based stochastic model for spatially resolved cellular processes. It is often interpreted as an approximation to spatially continuous reaction-diffusion models, which, in the limit of an infinitely large population, may be described by means of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. Analyzing and understanding the relation between different mathematical models for reaction-diffusion dynamics is a research topic of steady interest. In this work, we explore a route to the hydrodynamic limit of the RDME which uses gradient structures. Specifically, we elaborate on a method introduced in [J. Maas and A. Mielke, J. Stat. Phys., 181 (2020), pp. 2257–2303] in the context of well-mixed reaction networks by showing that, once it is complemented with an appropriate limit procedure, it can be applied to spatially extended systems with diffusion. Under the assumption of detailed balance, we write down a gradient structure for the RDME and use the method in order to produce a gradient structure for its hydrodynamic limit, namely, for the corresponding RDPDE.
We propose the Blockloading algorithm for the clustering of large and complex graphs with tens of thousands of vertices according to a Stochastic Block Model (SBM). Blockloading is based on generalized Variational Bayesian EM (VBEM) schemes and works for weighted and unweighted graphs. Existing Variational (Bayesian) EM methods have to consider each possible number of clusters sepa- rately to determine the optimal number of clusters and are prone to converge to local optima making multiple restarts necessary. These factors impose a severe restriction on the size and complexity of graphs these methods can handle. In con- trast, the Blockloading algorithm restricts restarts to subnetworks in a way that provides error correction of an existing cluster assignment. The number of clusters need not be specified in advance because Blockloading will return it as a result. We show that Blockloading outperforms all other variational methods regarding reliability of the results and computational efficiency.
The Car-Parrinello (CP) approach to ab initio molecular dynamics serves as an approximation to time-dependent Born-Oppenheimer (BO) calculations. It replaces the explicit minimization of the energy functional by a fictitious Newtonian dynamics and therefore introduces an artificial mass parameter $\mu$ which controls the electronic motion. A recent theoretical investigation shows that the CP-error, i.e., the deviation of the CP--solution from the BO-solution {\em decreases} like $\mu^{1/2}$ asymptotically. Since the computational effort {\em increases} like $\mu^{-1/2}$, the choice of $\mu$ has to find a compromise between efficiency and accuracy. The asymptotical result is used in this paper to construct an easily implemented algorithm which automatically controls $\mu$: the parameter $\mu$ is repeatedly adapted during the simulation by choosing $\mu$ as large as possible while pushing an error measure below a user-given tolerance. The performance and reliability of the algorithm is illustrated by a typical example.
Modeling, simulation and analysis of interacting agent systems is a broad field of research, with existing approaches reaching from informal descriptions of interaction dynamics to more formal, mathematical models. In this paper, we study agent-based models (ABMs) given as continuous-time stochastic processes and their pathwise approximation by ordinary and stochastic differential equations (ODEs and SDEs, respectively) for medium to large populations. By means of an appropriately adapted transfer operator approach we study the behavior of the ABM process on long time scales. We show that, under certain conditions, the transfer operator approach allows to bridge the gap between the pathwise results for large populations on finite timescales, i.e., the SDE limit model, and approaches built to study dynamical behavior on long time scales like large deviation theory. The latter provides a rigorous analysis of rare events including the associated asymptotic rates on timescales that scale exponentially with the population size. We demonstrate that it is possible to reveal metastable structures and timescales of rare events of the ABM process by finite-length trajectories of the SDE process for large enough populations. This approach has the potential to drastically reduce computational effort for the analysis of ABMs.
Paratuberculosis is a major disease in cattle that severely affects animal welfare and causes huge economic losses worldwide. Development of alternative diagnostic methods is of urgent need to control the disease. Recent studies suggest that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play a crucial role in regulating immune function and may confer valuable information about the disease. However, their role has not yet been investigated in cattle with respect to infection towards Paratuberculosis. Therefore, we investigated the alteration in genomic expression profiles of mRNA and lncRNA in bovine macrophages in response to Paratuberculosis infection using RNA-Seq. We identified 397 potentially novel lncRNA candidates in macrophages of which 38 were differentially regulated by the infection. A total of 820 coding genes were also significantly altered by the infection. Co-expression analysis of lncRNAs and their neighbouring coding genes suggest regulatory functions of lncRNAs in pathways related to immune response. For example, this included protein coding genes such as TNIP3, TNFAIP3 and NF-κB2 that play a role in NF-κB2 signalling, a pathway associated with immune response. This study advances our understanding of lncRNA roles during Paratuberculosis infection.
Applications of the cross-entropy method to importance sampling and optimal control of diffusions
(2014)
We study the cross-entropy method for diffusions. One of the results is a versatile cross-entropy algorithm that can be used to design efficient importance sampling strategies for rare events or to solve optimal control problems. The approach is based on the minimization of a suitable cross-entropy functional, with a parametric family of exponentially tilted probability distributions. We illustrate the new algorithm with several numerical examples and discuss algorithmic issues and possible extensions of the method.
Applications of the cross-entropy method to importance sampling and optimal control of diffusions
(2014)
In molecular dynamics applications there is a growing interest in including quantum effects for simulations of larger molecules. This paper is concerned with {\em mixed quantum-classical} models which are currently discussed: the so-called QCMD model with variants and the time-dependent Born-Oppenheimer approximation. All these models are known to approximate the full quantum dynamical evolution---under different assumptions, however. We review the meaning of these assumptions and the scope of the approximation. In particular, we characterize those typical problematic situations where a mixed model might largely deviate from the full quantum evolution. One such situation of specific interest, a non-adiabatic excitation at certain energy level crossings, can promisingly be dealt with by a modification of the QCMD model that we suggest.
Beating the Noise
(2006)
Recent years have seen an increased interest in non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations, especially for molecular systems with periodic forcing by external fields, e.g., in the context of studying effects of electromagnetic radiation on the human body tissue. Lately, an NEMD methods with local thermostating has been proposed that allows for studying non-equilibrium processes in a statistically reliable and thermodynamically consistent way. In this article, we demonstrate how to construct Markov State Models (MSMs) for such NEMD simulations. MSM building has been well-established for systems in equilibrium where MSMs with just a few (macro-)states allow for accurate reproduction of the essential kinetics of the molecular system under consideration. Non-equilibrium MSMs have been lacking so far. The article presents how to construct such MSMs and illustrates their validity and usefulness for the case of conformation dynamics of alanine dipeptide in an external electric field.
Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss
A good deal of molecular dynamics simulations aims at predicting and quantifying rare events, such as the folding of a protein or a phase transition. Simulating rare events is often prohibitive, especially if the equations of motion are high-dimensional, as is the case in molecular dynamics. Various algorithms have been proposed for efficiently computing mean first passage times, transition rates or reaction pathways. This article surveys and discusses recent developments in the field of rare event simulation and outlines a new approach that combines ideas from optimal control and statistical mechanics. The optimal control approach described in detail resembles the use of Jarzynski's equality for free energy calculations, but with an optimized protocol that speeds up the sampling, while (theoretically) giving variance-free estimators of the rare events statistics. We illustrate the new approach with two numerical examples and discuss its relation to existing methods.
The aim of this work is to study the accuracy and stability of the Chebyshev--approximation method as a time--discretization for wavepacket dynamics. For this frequently used discretization we introduce estimates of the approximation and round--off error. These estimates mathematically confirm the stability of the Chebyshev--approximation with respect to round--off errors, especially for very large stepsizes. But the results also disclose threads to the stability due to large spatial dimensions. All theoretical statements are illustrated by numerical simulations of an analytically solvable example, the harmonic quantum oszillator.
We employ the adaptive resolution approach AdResS, in its recently developed Grand Canonicallike version (GC-AdResS) [Wang et al. Phys.Rev.X 3, 011018 (2013)], to calculate the excess chemical potential, $μ^{ex}$, of various liquids and mixtures. We compare our results with those obtained from full atomistic simulations using the technique of thermodynamic integration and show a satisfactory agreement. In GC-AdResS the procedure to calculate $μ^{ex}$ corresponds to the process of standard initial equilibration of the system; this implies that, independently of the specific aim of the study, $μ^{ex}$, for each molecular species, is automatically calculated every time a GC-AdResS simulation is performed.
CINDy: Conditional gradient-based Identification of Non-linear Dynamics – Noise-robust recovery
(2021)
Governing equations are essential to the study of nonlinear dynamics, often enabling the prediction of previously unseen behaviors as well as the inclusion into control strategies. The discovery of governing equations from data thus has the potential to transform data-rich fields where well-established dynamical models remain unknown. This work contributes to the recent trend in data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics of finding the best sparse fit to observational data in a large library of potential nonlinear models. We propose an efficient first-order Conditional Gradient algorithm for solving the underlying optimization problem. In comparison to the most prominent alternative algorithms, the new algorithm shows significantly improved performance on several essential issues like sparsity-induction, structure-preservation, noise robustness, and sample efficiency. We demonstrate these advantages on several dynamics from the field of synchronization, particle dynamics, and enzyme chemistry.
The paper presents the concept of a new type of algorithm for the numerical computation of what the authors call the {\em essential dynamics\/} of molecular systems. Mathematically speaking, such systems are described by Hamiltonian differential equations. In the bulk of applications, individual trajectories are of no specific interest. Rather, time averages of physical observables or relaxation times of conformational changes need to be actually computed. In the language of dynamical systems, such information is contained in the natural invariant measure (infinite relaxation time) or in almost invariant sets ("large" finite relaxation times). The paper suggests the direct computation of these objects via eigenmodes of the associated Frobenius-Perron operator by means of a multilevel subdivision algorithm. The advocated approach is different to both Monte-Carlo techniques on the one hand and long term trajectory simulation on the other hand: in our setup long term trajectories are replaced by short term sub-trajectories, Monte-Carlo techniques are just structurally connected via the underlying Frobenius-Perron theory. Numerical experiments with a first version of our suggested algorithm are included to illustrate certain distinguishing properties. A more advanced version of the algorithm will be presented in a second part of this paper.
Conformation Dynamics
(2009)
Conformational Dynamics
(1999)
The function of many important biomolecules comes from their dynamic properties and their ability to switch between different {\em conformations}. In a conformation, the large scale geometric structure of the molecule is understood to be conserved, whereas on smaller scales the system may well rotate, oscillate or fluctuate. In a recent article [J. Comp. Phys., 151,1 (1999)], the present author and coworkers demonstrated that (a) conformations can be understood as almost invariant sets of some Markov chain being defined via the Hamiltonian system governing the molecular dynamics and that (b) these sets can efficiently be computed via eigenvectors of the corresponding Markov operator. The persent manuscript reviews the mathematical modelling steps behind the novel concept, includes a rigorous analytical justification of this approach and especially of the numerical details of the algorithm, and illustrates its performance when applied to realistic molecular systems.
Open biochemical systems of interacting molecules are ubiquitous in life-related processes. However, established computational methodologies, like molecular dynamics, are still mostly constrained to closed systems and timescales too small to be relevant for life processes. Alternatively, particle-based reaction-diffusion models are currently the most accurate and computationally feasible approach at these scales. Their efficiency lies in modeling entire molecules as particles that can diffuse and interact with each other. In this work, we develop modeling and numerical schemes for particle-based reaction-diffusion in an open setting, where the reservoirs are mediated by reaction-diffusion PDEs. We derive two important theoretical results. The first one is the mean-field for open systems of diffusing particles; the second one is the mean-field for a particle-based reaction-diffusion system with second-order reactions. We employ these two results to develop a numerical scheme that consistently couples particle-based reaction-diffusion processes with reaction-diffusion PDEs. This allows modeling open biochemical systems in contact with reservoirs that are time-dependent and spatially inhomogeneous, as in many relevant real-world applications.
The identification of meaningful reaction coordinates plays a key role in the study of complex molecular systems whose essential dynamics is characterized by rare or slow transition events. In a recent publication, the authors identified a condition under which such reaction coordinates exist - the existence of a so-called transition manifold - and proposed a numerical method for their point-wise computation that relies on short bursts of MD simulations. This article represents an extension of the method towards practical applicability in computational chemistry. It describes an alternative computational scheme that instead relies on more commonly available types of simulation data, such as single long molecular trajectories, or the push-forward of arbitrary canonically-distributed point clouds. It is based on a Galerkin approximation of the transition manifold reaction coordinates, that can be tuned to individual requirements by the choice of the Galerkin ansatz functions. Moreover, we propose a ready-to-implement variant of the new scheme, that computes data-fitted, mesh-free ansatz functions directly from the available simulation data. The efficacy of the new method is demonstrated
on a realistic peptide system.
The dynamical behavior of social systems can be described by agent-based models. Although single agents follow easily explainable rules, complex time-evolving patterns emerge due to their interaction. The simulation and analysis of such agent-based models, however, is often prohibitively time-consuming if the number of agents is large. In this paper, we show how Koopman operator theory can be used to derive reduced models of agent-based systems using only simulation or real-world data. Our goal is to learn coarse-grained models and to represent the reduced dynamics by ordinary or stochastic differential equations. The new variables are, for instance, aggregated state variables of the agent-based model, modeling the collective behavior of larger groups or the entire population. Using benchmark problems with known coarse-grained models, we demonstrate that the obtained reduced systems are in good agreement with the analytical results, provided that the numbers of agents is sufficiently large.
We present a numerical method to model dynamical systems from data. We use the recently introduced method Scalable Probabilistic Approximation (SPA) to project points from a Euclidean space to convex polytopes and represent these projected states of a system in new, lower-dimensional coordinates denoting their position in the polytope. We then introduce a specific nonlinear transformation to construct a model of the dynamics in the polytope and to transform back into the original state space. To overcome the potential loss of information from the projection to a lower-dimensional polytope, we use memory in the sense of the delay-embedding theorem of Takens. By construction, our method produces stable models. We illustrate the capacity of the method to reproduce even chaotic dynamics and attractors with multiple connected components on various examples.
Two different approaches to parameter estimation (PE) in the context of polymerization are introduced, refined, combined, and applied. The first is classical PE where one is interested in finding parameters which minimize the distance between the output of a chemical model and experimental data. The second is Bayesian PE allowing for quantifying parameter uncertainty caused by experimental measurement error and model imperfection. Based on detailed descriptions of motivation, theoretical background, and methodological aspects for both approaches, their relation are outlined. The main aim of this article is to show how the two approaches complement each other and can be used together to generate strong information gain regarding the model and its parameters. Both approaches and their interplay in application to polymerization reaction systems are illustrated. This is the first part in a two-article series on parameter estimation for polymer reaction kinetics with a focus on theory and methodology while in the second part a more complex example will be considered.
Dimensionality Reduction of Complex Metastable Systems via Kernel Embeddings of Transition Manifolds
(2021)
We present a novel kernel-based machine learning algorithm for identifying the low-dimensional geometry of the effective dynamics of high-dimensional multiscale stochastic systems. Recently, the authors developed a mathematical framework for the computation of optimal reaction coordinates of such systems that is based on learning a parameterization of a low-dimensional transition manifold in a certain function space. In this article, we enhance this approach by embedding and learning this transition manifold in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, exploiting the favorable properties of kernel embeddings. Under mild assumptions on the kernel, the manifold structure is shown to be preserved under the embedding, and distortion bounds can be derived. This leads to a more robust and more efficient algorithm compared to the previous parameterization approaches.
A theoretical investigation of the dynamic properties of integrated optical Er--doped waveguide lasers is presented. It includes the construction of a physical model and of numerical techniques which allow reliable simulations of the dynamical behaviour of the laser signal depending on essential parameters of the laser device and on its external, time--dependent pump radiation. Therefore, a physical theory is developed which describes the propagation of light and its interaction with the active substrate in the laser cavity. This is realized in two steps. First, a {\em fundamental model} based on Maxwell's equations and on rate equations for the transitions in the active medium is constructed. Since this turns out to prohibit reliable simulations, it is, in a second step, reformulated via averaging in time and space which suppresses the fluctuations on the fastest time scales but represents them correctly. For this {\em reduced model} reliable and efficient simulation techniques using adaptive control schemes are designed and implemented. We apply the linear--implicit Euler discretization with extrapolation in time and a multilevel quadrature scheme in space. Finally, the model is justified in comparison with experimental observations in four cases of technological relevance.
In molecular dynamics and related fields one considers dynamical descriptions of complex systems in full (atomic) detail. In order to reduce the overwhelming complexity of realistic systems (high dimension, large timescale spread, limited computational resources) the projection of the full dynamics onto some reaction coordinates is examined in order to extract statistical information like free energies or reaction rates. In this context, the effective dynamics that is induced by the full dynamics on the reaction coordinate space has attracted considerable attention in the literature. In this article, we contribute to this discussion: We first show that if we start with an ergodic diffusion processes whose invariant measure is unique then these properties are inherited by the effective dynamics. Then, we give equations for the effective dynamics, discuss whether the dominant timescales and reaction rates inferred from the effective dynamics are accurate approximations of such quantities for the full dynamics, and compare our findings to results from approaches like Zwanzig-Mori, averaging, or homogenization. Finally, by discussing the algorithmic realization of the effective dynamics, we demonstrate that recent algorithmic techniques like the ”equation-free” approach and the ”heterogeneous multiscale method” can be seen as special cases of our approach.
One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Therefore, before applying Bayes’ rule separately to the data of each patient (which is typically performed using a non-informative prior), it is meaningful to use empirical Bayes methods in order to construct an informative prior from all available data. We compare the performance of four priors - a non-informative prior and priors chosen by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE), by maximum penalized lilelihood estimation (MPLE) and by doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation (DS-MLE) - by applying them to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling.
When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE).
The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements.
This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model
has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy
and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case.