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Institute
Boolean delay equations (BDEs), with their relatively simple and intuitive mode of
modelling, have been used in many research areas including, for example, climate
dynamics and earthquake propagation. Their application to biological systems has been
scarce and limited to the molecular level. Here, we derive and present two BDE models.
One is directly derived from a previously published ordinary differential equation
(ODE) model for the bovine estrous cycle, whereas the second model includes a
modification of a particular biological mechanism. We not only compare the simulation
results from the BDE models with the trajectories of the ODE model, but also validate
the BDE models with two additional numerical experiments. One experiment induces
a switch in the oscillatory pattern upon changes in the model parameters, and the
other simulates the administration of a hormone that is known to shift the estrous
cycle in time. The models presented here are the first BDE models for hormonal
oscillators, and the first BDE models for drug administration. Even though automatic
parameter estimation still remains challenging, our results support the role of BDEs
as a framework for the systematic modelling of complex biological oscillators.
When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE).
The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements.
This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model
has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy
and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case.
We present a modelling and simulation framework for the dynamics of ovarian follicles and key hormones along the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis throughout consecutive human menstrual cycles. All simulation results (hormone concentrations and ovarian follicle sizes) are in biological units and can easily be compared to clinical data. The model takes into account variability in follicles' response to stimulating hormones, which introduces variability between cycles. The growth of ovarian follicles in waves is an emergent property in our model simulations and further supports the hypothesis that follicular waves are also present in humans. We use Approximate Bayesian Computation and cluster analysis to construct a population of virtual subjects and to study parameter distributions and sensitivities. The model can be used to compare and optimize treatment protocols for ovarian hyperstimulation, thus potentially forming the integral part of a clinical decision support system in reproductive endocrinology.
The androgen system across the menstrual cycle: Hormonal, (epi-)genetic and psychometric alterations
(2022)
We present an overview of the current status of the European collaborative
project PAEON. The challenge of PAEON is to provide specialists in reproduc-
tive medicine with a computerised model of the menstrual cycle under normal
and various pathological conditions, which will allow them to get further in-
sight in fertility dynamics. This model also enables the simulation of treatment
protocols, which were used within in vitro fertilization. By the definition of
virtual patients through biologically admissible parametrizations our approach
allows not only the evaluation of a given treatment strategy in silico, but also
the design and optimization of such protocols. Once a protocol is formalized
in the virtual hospital, the success can be controlled by a treatment execution
monitor, which works then as a clinical decision support system. All these tools
will be combined in a virtual hospital environment, enabling the access to the
PAEON services through the web.
Modelling, parameter identification, and simulation play an important rôle in Systems Biology. In recent years, various software packages have been established for scientific use in both licencing types, open source as well as commercial. Many of these codes are based on inefficient and mathematically outdated algorithms. By introducing the package BioPARKIN recently developed at ZIB, we want to improve this situation significantly. The development of the software BioPARKIN involves long standing mathematical ideas that, however, have not yet entered the field of Systems Biology, as well as new ideas and tools that are particularly important for the analysis of the dynamics of biological networks. BioPARKIN originates from the package PARKIN, written by P.Deuflhard and U.Nowak, that has been applied successfully for parameter identification in physical chemistry for many years.